Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Andrew Gelman is a professor of statistics and political science and director of the Applied Statistics Center at Columbia University.
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science's Latest Posts
Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Questions about “Too Good to Be True” I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, […]
One of my favorites, from 1995. Don Rubin and I argue with Adrian Raftery. Here’s how we begin: Raftery’s paper addresses two important problems in the statistical analysis of social science data: (1) choosing an appropriate model when so much data are available that standard P-values reject all parsimonious models; and (2) making estimates and […] The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
When we talk about the “file drawer,” let’s not assume that an experiment can easily be characterized as producing strong, mixed, or weak results
Neil Malhotra: I thought you might be interested in our paper [the paper is by Annie Franco, Neil Malhotra, and Gabor Simonovits, and the link is to a news article by Jeffrey Mervis], forthcoming in Science, about publication bias in the social sciences given your interest and work on research transparency. Basic summary: We examined […] The post When we talk about the “file drawer,” let’s not assume that an experiment can easily be characterized as producing strong, […]
This one from 1995 (with D. Stephen Voss and Gary King) was fun. For our “Why are American Presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable?” project a few years earlier, Gary and I had analyzed individual-level survey responses from 60 pre-election polls that had been conducted by several different polling organizations. […] The post Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992 appeared first on […]
This post is by Phil Price. Perhaps prompted by the ALS Ice Bucket Challenge, this infographic has been making the rounds: I think this is one of the worst I have ever seen. I don’t know where it came from, so I can’t give credit/blame where it’s due. Let’s put aside the numbers themselves – […] The post One of the worst infographics ever, but people don’t care? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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