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May 18, 2013

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11:08 AM | Ocean heat puts pressure on poorest fisheries
The first evidence that climate change has affected fishing catches, revealed by William Cheung from the University of British Columbia and his team, shows tropical countries are set to be hardest hit.

Cheung, W., Watson, R. & Pauly, D. (2013). Signature of ocean warming in global fisheries catch, Nature, 497 (7449) 365-368. DOI:

Payne, M. (2013). Fisheries: Climate change at the dinner table, Nature, 497 (7449) 320-321. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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May 09, 2013

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2:00 PM | Arctic mission recovers record of surprising warmth
The longest continuous Arctic land sediment core shows that the last time CO2 levels reached current levels, over 2.6 million years ago, North-East Russia was taken was 8°C warmer.

Melles, M., Brigham-Grette, J., Minyuk, P., Nowaczyk, N., Wennrich, V., DeConto, R., Anderson, P., Andreev, A., Coletti, A., Cook, T. & Haltia-Hovi, E. (2012). 2.8 Million Years of Arctic Climate Change from Lake El'gygytgyn, NE Russia, Science, 337 (6092) 315-320. DOI:

Julie Brigham-Grette, Martin Melles, Pavel Minyuk, Andrei Andreev, Pavel Tarasov, Robert DeConto, Sebastian Koenig, Norbert Nowaczyk, Volker Wennrich, Peter Rosén, Eeva Haltia, Tim Cook, Catalina Gebhardt, Carsten Meyer-Jacob, Jeff Snyder, Ulrike Herzsch (2013). Pliocene Warmth, Polar Amplification, and Stepped Pleistocene Cooling Recorded in NE Arctic Russia, Science, Other: 10.1126/science.1233137

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

May 04, 2013

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7:39 AM | Google search basis undermines sunspot-winter coldness link
A recent study linking cold winters in Europe to sunspots has updated bad science reaching back to the 19th century for the internet age, reveal Geert Jan van Oldenborgh from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and his colleagues, helped by an unholy alliance between Roger Pielke Sr and Stefan Rahmstorf.

Sirocko, F., Brunck, H. & Pfahl, S. (2012). Solar influence on winter severity in central Europe, Geophysical Research Letters, 39 (16) DOI:

Pittock, A. B. (1983). Solar variability, weather and climate: An update, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 109 (459) 23-55. DOI:

van Oldenborgh, G., de Laat, A., Luterbacher, J., Ingram, W. & Osborn, T. (2013). Claim of solar influence is on thin ice: are 11-year cycle solar minima associated with severe winters in Europe?, Environmental Research Letters, 8 (2) 24014. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

April 27, 2013

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9:34 AM | The climate scientist whose world spun on through war
Milutin Milanković calculated his way through imprisonment and bombings to show how Earth’s movement helped drive ice ages, revealing how far we’ve strayed from the path we should be following into the next global freeze.

Petrović, A. & Marković, S. (2010). Annus mirabilis and the end of the geocentric causality: Why celebrate the 130th anniversary of Milutin Milanković?, Quaternary International, 214 (1-2) 114-118. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

April 24, 2013

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5:00 PM | Are Electric Vehicles Really Zero-Emission?
2011 Nissan Leaf Prototype As the owner of the first Nissan Leaf electric car sold in Maine, it is my pleasure to give slide presentations to various groups about the history, benefits, and personal experiences of driving an electric vehicle. After a showing of the movie Revenge of the Electric Car, I was participating in a question and answer session when someone in the audience shouted, "Your car is not zero-emission!" Although the Leaf has no tailpipe and causes no local emissions, I had […]
Popular Science
General Science

April 03, 2013

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5:00 PM | Temperature patterns produce perplexing Pliocene puzzle
Failure to model a climate fingerprint from 5 million years ago thought to be similar to what we can expect in the warmer future must be resolved, say Lafayette College’s Kira Lawrence and University College London’s Chris Brierley

Fedorov, A., Brierley, C., Lawrence, K., Liu, Z., Dekens, P. & Ravelo, A. (2013). Patterns and mechanisms of early Pliocene warmth, Nature, 496 (7443) 43-49. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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March 30, 2013

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9:56 AM | Diving deep into ocean data uncovers ‘missing heat’ treasure
Ocean warming is speeding up below 700m, where most previous studies haven’t been able to reach, say Kevin Trenberth from NCAR and his colleagues, which helps explain current surprisingly slow surface warming, and invalidates simple climate models.

Magdalena A. Balmaseda, Kevin E. Trenberth, Erland Källén (2013). Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content, Geophysical Research Letters, Other: 10.1002/grl.50382

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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March 23, 2013

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11:06 AM | Climate change set to bring Western Europe more hurricanes
Models show that a warmer eastern tropical Atlantic at the end of the 21st century spawns hurricanes that are more likely to head to Europe, with the current western Atlantic origin seemingly becoming less active, with possible consequences for North America.

Haarsma, R., Hazeleger, W., Severijns, C., de Vries, H., Sterl, A., Bintanja, R., van Oldenborgh, G. & van den Brink, H. (2013). More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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March 16, 2013

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12:48 PM | How cold hearts and ice ages kindled the science of warming
In the 19th century, the newly-divorced Svante Arrhenius threw himself into epic calculations on how CO2 and water vapour could team to control Earth’s temperature, showing the forcing role of CO2 that underlies our understanding of climate change today.

Burgess, E. (1837). "General Remarks on the Temperature of the Terrestrial Globe and the Planetary Spaces; by Baron Fourier." Translation from the French, of Fourier, J. B. J., 1824, "Remarques Générales Sur Les Températures Du Globe Terrestre Et Des Espaces Planétaires., American Journal of Science, 32 1-20. Other: Link

Tyndall, P. (1860). The Bakerian Lecture: On the Absorption and Radiation of Heat by Gases and Vapours, and on the Physical Connexion of Radiation, Absorption, and Conduction., Proceedings of the Royal Society of London, 11 100-104. DOI:

Arrhenius, S. (1896). On the Influence of Carbonic Acid in the Air upon the Temperature of the Ground , Philosophical Magazine Series 5, 41 (251) 237-276. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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March 07, 2013

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7:00 PM | Projected warming set to exceed civilisation’s experience
11,000 years during which human civilisation has emerged have not seen temperatures ‘even close’ to what model forecasts predict, a record built by Shaun Marcott from Oregon State University and his teammates shows.

Shaun A. Marcott, Jeremy D. Shakun, Peter U. Clark, Alan C. Mix (2013). A Reconstruction of Regional and Global Temperature for the Past 11,300 Years, Science, 339 1198-1201. Other: Link

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

February 28, 2013

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7:00 PM | Evidence rethink puts CO2 and ancient warming back in sync
A rise in temperatures that caused the last major global defrost has now been placed in the same 150-year window as an accompanying CO2 increase by Frédéric Parrenin from the French National Centre for Scientific Research and his teammates, rather than happening 800 years before the CO2 change as previously thought.

F. Parrenin, V. Masson-Delmotte, P. Köhler, D. Raynaud, D. Paillard, J. Schwander, C. Barbante, A. Landais, A. Wegner, J. Jouze (2013). Synchronous Change of Atmospheric CO2 and Antarctic Temperature During the Last Deglacial Warming, Science, 339 1060-1063. Other: Link

E. Brook (2012). Leads and Lags at the End of the Last Ice Age, Science, 339 1042-1043. Other: Link

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

February 21, 2013

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7:00 PM | Cave deposits reveal permafrost concern
Greenhouse gases currently trapped in the frozen soil risk release past a 1.5°C temperature threshold for melting at the permafrost boundary, found in a 500,000 year record collected by Anton Vaks from the University of Oxford, and his colleagues.

A. Vaks, O. S. Gutareva, S. F. M. Breitenbach, E. Avirmed, A. J. Mason, A. L. Thomas, A. V. Osinzev,5 A. M. Kononov, G. M. Henderson (2013). Speleothems Reveal 500,000-Year History of Siberian Permafrost, Science,

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

February 16, 2013

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12:02 PM | Extra stations bolster warming-extreme rainfall link
A study calling on 8326 weather stations has confirmed that annual precipitation highs are intensifying by around 7% per 1°C warming, explains University of Adelaide’s Seth West

Westra, S., Alexander, L. & Zwiers, F. (2012). Global increasing trends in annual maximum daily precipitation, Journal of Climate, 2147483647. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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January 26, 2013

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3:29 PM | Iconic authors help reveal record early flowering
150 years since Henry David Thoreau observed them, plants flower three weeks earlier thanks to climate change, find Boston University’s Libby Ellwood and her teammates.

Ellwood, E., Temple, S., Primack, R., Bradley, N. & Davis, C. (2013). Record-Breaking Early Flowering in the Eastern United States, PLoS ONE, 8 (1) DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

January 23, 2013

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7:00 PM | Scientists Dismiss Geo-Engineering as a Global Warming Quick Fix
A new study shows that dispersing minerals into oceans to stem climate change would be an inefficient and impractical process
Surprising Science
General Science

January 12, 2013

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2:36 PM | Delays raise emission halt urgency
Staying under the 2°C warming target demands a serious action rethink, find Steve Davis at University of California, Irvine and team-mates, after updating a method that breaks down the steps needed into “wedges”.

Davis, S., Cao, L., Caldeira, K. & Hoffert, M. (2013). Rethinking wedges, Environmental Research Letters, 8 (1) 11001. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

January 05, 2013

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12:42 PM | Climate limits room at the global dinner table
With farming producing up to one-third of human-caused greenhouse gas emissions, and more people wanting more meat, agricultural research faces big challenges to avoid us having to make more difficult choices about what we eat.

Ziska, L., Bunce, J., Shimono, H., Gealy, D., Baker, J., Newton, P., Reynolds, M., Jagadish, K., Zhu, C., Howden, M. & Wilson, L. (2012). Food security and climate change: on the potential to adapt global crop production by active selection to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide, Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 279 (1745) 4097-4105. DOI:

Carlton, R., West, J., Smith, P. & Fitt, B. (2012). A comparison of GHG emissions from UK field crop production under selected arable systems with reference to disease control, European Journal of Plant Pathology, 133 (1) 333-351. DOI:

Powell, T. & Lenton, T. (2012). Future carbon dioxide removal via biomass energy constrained by agricultural efficiency and dietary trends, Energy & Environmental Science, 5 (8) 8116. DOI:

Davidson, E. (2012). Representative concentration pathways and mitigation scenarios for nitrous oxide, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (2) 24005. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

December 29, 2012

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11:58 AM | Warming brings home the value of a meal
Research into how climate change affects agriculture, and therefore the food we eat, shows the challenges farmers face and the knock-on costs to the rest of us.

Laurie T. Johnson and Chris Hope (2012). The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulatory impact analyses: an introduction and critique, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, DOI:

Schewe, J. & Levermann, A. (2012). A statistically predictive model for future monsoon failure in India, Environmental Research Letters, 7 (4) 44023. DOI:

Schwalm, C., Williams, C., Schaefer, K., Baldocchi, D., Black, T., Goldstein, A., Law, B., Oechel, W., Paw U, K. & Scott, R. & (2012). Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience, 5 (8) 551-556. DOI:

Qian, C., Yan, Z. & Fu, C. (2011). Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960–2008, Chinese Science Bulletin, 57 (2-3) 276-286. DOI:

Diffenbaugh, N., Hertel, T., Scherer, M. & Verma, M. (2012). Response of corn markets to climate volatility under alternative energy futures, Nature Climate Change, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

December 22, 2012

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12:32 PM | 2012’s record events put climate in mind
Wet summers and droughts, deadly storms, Arctic melting and Antarctic freezing. How do climate records in 2012 fit in with the broader picture of climate change?

Villarini, G. & Vecchi, G. (2012). Multi-Season Lead Forecast of the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Journal of Climate, 2147483647. DOI:

Peduzzi, P., Chatenoux, B., Dao, H., De Bono, A., Herold, C., Kossin, J., Mouton, F. & Nordbeck, O. (2012). Global trends in tropical cyclone risk, Nature Climate Change, 2 (4) 289-294. DOI:

Newell, B. & Pitman, A. (2010). The Psychology of Global Warming, Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 91 (8) 1003-1014. DOI:

Rahmstorf, S. & Coumou, D. (2011). Increase of extreme events in a warming world, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 108 (44) 17905-17909. DOI:

Liu, J., Curry, J., Wang, H., Song, M. & Horton, R. (2012). Impact of declining Arctic sea ice on winter snowfall, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, DOI:

Durack, P., Wijffels, S. & Matear, R. (2012). Ocean Salinities Reveal Strong Global Water Cycle Intensification During 1950 to 2000, Science, 336 (6080) 455-458. DOI:

Schwalm, C., Williams, C., Schaefer, K., Baldocchi, D., Black, T., Goldstein, A., Law, B., Oechel, W., Paw U, K. & Scott, R. & (2012). Reduction in carbon uptake during turn of the century drought in western North America, Nature Geoscience, 5 (8) 551-556. DOI:

Pall, P., Aina, T., Stone, D., Stott, P., Nozawa, T., Hilberts, A., Lohmann, D. & Allen, M. (2011). Anthropogenic greenhouse gas contribution to flood risk in England and Wales in autumn 2000, Nature, 470 (7334) 382-385. DOI:

Min, S., Zhang, X., Zwiers, F. & Hegerl, G. (2011). Human contribution to more-intense precipitation extremes, Nature, 470 (7334) 378-381. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

December 15, 2012

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11:21 AM | Can we trust climate models?
I’ve asked scientists I’ve spoken to for blog entries and articles published this year why we use models, how we know they’re accurate, and how to understand their projections.

Muyin Wang and James E. Overland (2012). A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., DOI:

Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Phillips, A. (2012). Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nature Climate Change, 2 (11) 775-779. DOI:

Higgins, P. & Harte, J. (2012). Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change Risks and Mitigation Challenges, Journal of Climate, 25 (21) 7660-7668. DOI:

Peduzzi, P., Chatenoux, B., Dao, H., De Bono, A., Herold, C., Kossin, J., Mouton, F. & Nordbeck, O. (2012). Global trends in tropical cyclone risk, Nature Climate Change, 2 (4) 289-294. DOI:

Wei, T., Yang, S., Moore, J., Shi, P., Cui, X., Duan, Q., Xu, B., Dai, Y., Yuan, W., Wei, X. & Yang, Z. (2012). Developed and developing world responsibilities for historical climate change and CO2 mitigation, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109 (32) 12911-12915. DOI:

Rowlands, D., Frame, D., Ackerley, D., Aina, T., Booth, B., Christensen, C., Collins, M., Faull, N., Forest, C., Grandey, B. & Gryspeerdt, E. (2012). Broad range of 2050 warming from an observationally constrained large climate model ensemble, Nature Geoscience, 5 (4) 256-260. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

December 06, 2012

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2:35 PM | CO2 casts off shackles to power up Atlantic hurricanes
Reductions in particulate pollution and increases in greenhouse gases are going to co-operate to give us more intense hurricanes in the Atlantic, finds NOAA’s Gabriel Vecchi

Villarini, G. & Vecchi, G. (2012). Multi-Season Lead Forecast of the North Atlantic Power Dissipation Index (PDI) and Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), Journal of Climate, 2147483647. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

November 24, 2012

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10:43 AM | Carbon conundrum could push firmer emission action
Climate models might be wrong in assuming plants and soil will absorb more CO2 as the world warms, meaning that more aggressive action might be needed to keep climate change at ‘safe levels’, finds Paul Higgins from the American Meteorological Society

Higgins, P. & Harte, J. (2012). Carbon Cycle Uncertainty Increases Climate Change Risks and Mitigation Challenges, Journal of Climate, 25 (21) 7660-7668. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

November 03, 2012

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1:09 PM | Butterfly effect limits climate models
Tiny changes in climate simulations otherwise held constant can lead to a wide range of outcomes, Clara Deser from the US National Center for Atmospheric Research and her team find, showing uncertainty we can’t eliminate.

Deser, C., Knutti, R., Solomon, S. & Phillips, A. (2012). Communication of the role of natural variability in future North American climate, Nature Climate Change, 2 (11) 775-779. DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

October 13, 2012

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11:08 AM | Focus on uncertain climate cliff-edge invites disaster
Not knowing what greenhouse gas level climate catastrophe might happen at undermines negotiations using emission limits alone, an experiment by Scott Barrett and Astrid Dannenberg from the Earth Institute at Columbia University suggests

Scott Barrett and Astrid Dannenberg (2012). Climate negotiations under scientific uncertainty , PNAS Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

September 29, 2012

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11:59 AM | New models still give Arctic summer ice 30 years
September Arctic ice will be ‘nearly gone’ between 2021 and 2043, Muyin Wang from the University of Washington finds, even though only seven of the top climate models simulate the area well.

Muyin Wang and James E. Overland (2012). A sea ice free summer Arctic within 30 years: An update from CMIP5 models, Geophys. Res. Lett., DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

September 22, 2012

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10:34 AM | Warming cost estimates cheat our children
Economic analysis of the social cost of carbon that treats future generations as less important is close to insanity, according to economist Laurie Johnson of the Natural Resources Defense Council in Washington.

Laurie T. Johnson and Chris Hope (2012). The social cost of carbon in U.S. regulatory impact analyses: an introduction and critique, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

September 08, 2012

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11:57 AM | Sun loses grip on Earth’s temperature changes
Patterns in the heat we feel stopped being caused by the Sun since the 1970s, mathematical tests done by Antonello Pasini from the Institute of Atmospheric Pollution Research in Rome and his teammates show, with greenhouse gases and other human influences likely to be drowning its influence out.

Antonello Pasini, Umberto Triacca and Alessandro Attanasio (2012). Evidence of recent causal decoupling between solar radiation and global temperature , Environmental Research Letters, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
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August 25, 2012

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9:47 AM | Finding nature’s part in Arctic ice loss puts spotlight on human role
With Arctic ice heading for reaching its smallest area yet, Jonny Day from the University of Reading, UK and his colleagues have found an ocean circulation pattern could be responsible for up to three-tenths of the ice loss since the 1970s – but that humans remain most responsible.

J J Day, J C Hargreaves, J D Annan and A Abe-Ouchi (2012). Sources of multi-decadal variability in Arctic sea ice extent , Environmental Research Letters, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

August 18, 2012

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11:46 AM | Temperature rises could hamper developing world growth
Annual variations show every 1°C temperature increase shaves 1.3 percent off a poor country’s growth, over the course of a given year, according to MIT economist Ben Olken.

Melissa Dell, Benjamin F. Jones and Benjamin A. Olken (2012). Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century , American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, DOI:

Simple Climate
Climate Science
Citation

August 09, 2012

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3:14 PM | CO2-focused breeding can arm crops for food fight
Higher CO2 levels could ensure we have enough food in the face of other climate and population changes, says Lewis Ziska from the US Department of Agriculture, if crop breeding programs tailored to take advantage get enough support
Simple Climate
Climate Science
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