Posts

October 20, 2014

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2:12 PM | Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them
To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one. The post Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 18, 2014

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6:38 PM | Does Literary Fiction Challenge Racial Stereotypes?
A book is a mirror: if a fool looks in, do not expect an apostle to look out.                                                                Georg Christoph Lichtenberg […]

Johnson, D., Huffman, B. & Jasper, D. (2014). Changing Race Boundary Perception by Reading Narrative Fiction, Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 36 (1) 83-90. DOI: 10.1080/01973533.2013.856791

Citation

October 10, 2014

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1:28 PM | When am I a conservative and when am I a liberal (when it comes to statistics, that is)?
Here I am one day: Let me conclude with a statistical point. Sometimes researchers want to play it safe by using traditional methods — most notoriously, in that recent note by Michael Link, president of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, arguing against non-probability sampling on the (unsupported) grounds that such methods have “little […] The post When am I a conservative and when am I a liberal (when it comes to statistics, that is)? appeared first on […]

October 09, 2014

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10:35 PM | Varieties of description in political science
Markus Kreuzer writes: I am organizing a panel at next year’s American Political Science Association meeting tentatively entitled “Varieties of Description.” The idea is to compare and contrast the ways in which different disciplines approach descriptive inferences, that how they go about collective data, how they validate descriptive inferences and what ontological assumptions they make. […] The post Varieties of description in political science appeared first on […]

October 07, 2014

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1:35 PM | Rational != Self-interested
I’ve said it before (along with Aaron Edlin and Noah Kaplan) and I’ll say it again. Rationality and self-interest are two dimensions of behavior. An action can be: 1. Rational and self-interested 2. Irrational and self-interested 3. Rational and altruistic 4. Irrational and altruistic. It’s easy enough to come up with examples of all of […] The post Rational != Self-interested appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 03, 2014

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1:32 PM | 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha??
Alan Sloane writes: The OECD put out a report drawing on their PISA and TALIS data: http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.ie/2014/07/poverty-and-perception-of-poverty-how.html I notice that it’s already attracted a NY Times op-ed by David Leonhart: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/23/upshot/principals-in-us-are-more-likely-to-consider-their-students-poor.html There are a number of things I find strange in its analysis and interpretation but, for starters, there’s the horizontal axis in […]

September 30, 2014

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3:55 PM | Are Ivy League schools overrated?
I won’t actually answer the above question, as I am offering neither a rating of these schools nor a measure of how others rate them (which would be necessary to calibrate the “overrated” claim). What I am doing is responding to an email from Mark Palko, who wrote: I [Palko] am in broad agreement with […] The post Are Ivy League schools overrated? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 23, 2014

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1:35 PM | Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes
We had a discussion last month on the sister blog regarding the effects of subliminal messages on political attitudes.  It started with a Larry Bartels post entitled “Here’s how a cartoon smiley face punched a big hole in democratic theory,” with the subtitle, “Fleeting exposure to ‘irrelevant stimuli’ powerfully shapes our assessments of policy arguments,” discussing the […] The post Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim […]

September 22, 2014

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9:14 PM | “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry”
David Rothschild (coauthor of the Xbox study, the Mythical Swing Voter paper, and of course the notorious Aapor note) will be speaking Friday 10 Oct in the Economics and Big Data meetup in NYC. His title: “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry: information aggregation using non-representative polling data.” Should be fun! P.P.S. […] The post “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry” appeared first on Statistical […]
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