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Posts

April 14, 2014

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5:10 PM | Does Access to Birth Control Reduce Poverty?
In American politics the proliferation of birth control is important because of how it affects the eternal resting place of our immortal souls. But believe it or not, there are also non-metaphysical policy consequences to increasing access to birth control. A new study by a pair of economists — Stephanie Browne of J.P. Morgan and […]

Browne, S. & LaLumia, S. (2014). The Effects of Contraception on Female Poverty, Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, DOI:

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April 12, 2014

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6:17 PM | “If you are primarily motivated to make money, you . . . certainly don’t want to let people know how confused you are by something, or how shallow your knowledge is in certain areas. You want to project an image of mastery and omniscience.”
A reader writes in: This op-ed made me think of one your recent posts. Money quote: If you are primarily motivated to make money, you just need to get as much information as you need to do your job. You don’t have time for deep dives into abstract matters. You certainly don’t want to let […]The post “If you are primarily motivated to make money, you . . . certainly don’t want to let people know how confused you are by something, or how shallow your knowledge is in […]

April 03, 2014

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1:28 PM | As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake
The pre-NYT David Brooks liked to make fun of the NYT. Here’s one from 1997: I’m not sure I’d like to be one of the people featured on the New York Times wedding page, but I know I’d like to be the father of one of them. Imagine how happy Stanley J. Kogan must have […]The post As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

April 02, 2014

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4:34 AM | The Connection Between Conspiracy Theories and Ambivalence
It’s a good time to be in the conspiracy theory business, and not just because the birthplace of the U.S. President has been verified only 72 times. Thanks to the internet, it’s easier than ever to track down potentially suspicious information and discuss it with like-minded gumshoes. While certain people may be predisposed to believing in certain kinds […]

van Harreveld, F., Rutjens, B., Schneider, I., Nohlen, H. & Keskinis, K. (2014). In Doubt and Disorderly: Ambivalence Promotes Compensatory Perceptions of Order., Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, DOI:

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March 27, 2014

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1:02 PM | Beyond the Valley of the Trolls
In a further discussion of the discussion about the discussion of a paper in Administrative Science Quarterly, Thomas Basbøll writes: I [Basbøll] feel “entitled”, if that’s the right word (actually, I’d say I feel privileged), to express my opinions to anyone who wants to listen, and while I think it does say something about an […]The post Beyond the Valley of the Trolls appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

March 26, 2014

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1:10 PM | Is a steal really worth 9 points?
Theodore Vasiloudis writes: I’d like to bring your attention to this article by Benjamin Morris discussing the value of steals for the NBA. The author argues that a steal should be a highly sought after statistic as it equates to higher chances of victory and is very hard to replace when a player is injured. […]The post Is a steal really worth 9 points? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

March 24, 2014

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3:30 PM | Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models
Robert Bloomfield writes: Most of the people in my field (accounting, which is basically applied economics and finance, leavened with psychology and organizational behavior) use ‘positive research methods’, which are typically described as coming to the data with a predefined theory, and using hypothesis testing to accept or reject the theory’s predictions. But a substantial […]The post Empirical implications of Empirical Implications of Theoretical Models appeared […]

March 20, 2014

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6:27 PM | Teaching Bayesian applied statistics to graduate students in political science, sociology, public health, education, economics, . . .
One of the most satisfying experiences for an academic is when someone asks a question that you’ve already answered. This happened in the comments today. Daniel Gotthardt wrote: So for applied stat courses like for sociologists, political scientists, psychologists and maybe also for economics, what do we actually want to accomplish with our intro courses? […]The post Teaching Bayesian applied statistics to graduate students in political science, sociology, public health, education, […]

March 19, 2014

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1:09 PM | How Americans vote
An interview with me from 2012: You’re a statistician and wrote a book, Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State, looking at why Americans vote the way they do. In an election year I think it would be a good time to revisit that question, not just for people in the US, but anyone around […]The post How Americans vote appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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