September 01, 2014

6:35 PM | American Southwest has 80% chance of decade-long drought this century
It has happened before, and warming won’t help.

August 27, 2014

9:29 PM | Roy Spencer jumps the shark
I’m delighted to announce that Roy Spencer has joined the select company of such as Lindzen (sea ice; also emeritus), Curry (septic capture) and von S (wikipedia) as a shark jumper. Its all there in full public view. How Much of Atmospheric CO2 Increase is Natural?… Natural Variations in CO2 are LARGE… We should remember…
1:45 PM | IPCC attribution statements redux: A response to Judith Curry
I have written a number of times about the procedure used to attribute recent climate change (here in 2010, in 2012 (about the AR4 statement), and again in 2013 after AR5 was released). For people who want a summary of what the attribution problem is, how we think about the human contributions and why the […]

August 26, 2014

9:11 PM | The fruitarians are lazy
No no don’t go away, there’s actually some science in this post, courtesy of the increasingly-heavyweight Nick Stokes. Or, perhaps more fairly, whatever science there is comes from NS. But there’s a lot of snark too, as I hope you’d expect. That comes from me. The title isn’t quite right; I could have tried anopsologists…

August 22, 2014

2:31 PM | Faint Young Sun
Through an ancient looking-glass, Perhaps you'd see more H2 gas, And if with denser gas collided, Greater greenhouse warmth provided.
3:47 AM | Friday melts, weird weather and whales (it’s been a long time…)
It’s been a long time since my last post: apologies for that. You may blame a bad cold, an urgent need for root canal work, the peak of the truffle season (and truffle tours for culinary heroes1 ), the start of pruning and political distractions for the drop off in activity here. Normal service should […]

August 21, 2014

9:40 PM | Does the motion of the solar system affect our climate?
The Earth’s climate is believed to be affected, not just by people driving Humvees, but by a series of complex cycles, which can occur over a few years (such as El Nino) or even tens of thousands of years (changes in the Earth’s axis of rotation). But another cycle which may have an effect, lasts…

Shaviv, N., Prokoph, A. & Veizer, J. (2014). Is the Solar System's Galactic Motion Imprinted in the Phanerozoic Climate?, Scientific Reports, 4 6150. DOI: 10.1038/srep06150


August 20, 2014

3:00 PM | Models challenge temperature reconstruction of last 12,000 years
Temperature records could be skewed, or models could be missing the mark.

August 18, 2014

9:18 PM | Happy Second Birthday to Watts’ paper!
A year ago, the entirety of the intertubes were rocked to their foundations by a post of epochal proportions – me taking the piss out of AW’s “paper”. And now, I’m rather distressed to see, the anniversary of this anniversary has passed unnoticed by everyone. When your major “paper” is so contemptible that people don’t…

August 14, 2014

11:18 PM | Climate Change and Human Development
It has been clear for some years that climate change is affecting poorer populations sooner and more gravely than it is economically developed societies. There is little sign that the wealthy nations are much disturbed by this fact, and no sign that it has any braking effect on the inexorable drive to find and exploit […]
9:04 PM | Very like a fruitcake
Alternatively, “Despair of the Dork Side part 2″. But I’d thought I’d stick with the Hamlet theme. So, no sooner does AW write not one but two barking mad posts about CO2 (see DotDS) than the what-I-had-thought-comparatively-sane Jo Nova complete the trilogy with It’s an Unsettling Climate for skeptical scientists like Murry Salby. Its all…
12:03 AM | How much methane came out of that hole in Siberia?
Siberia has explosion holes in it that smell like methane, and there are newly found bubbles of methane in the Arctic Ocean. As a result, journalists are contacting me assuming that the Arctic Methane Apocalypse has begun. However, as a climate scientist I remain much more concerned about the fossil fuel industry than I am […]

August 13, 2014

3:04 PM | Ocean Sediments Tell a Surprising Climate Story
Geochemists Alexander van Geen and Jacob Mey helped coauthor a recent paper in the leading journal Science showing that warming climate in the future may not degrade oxygen supplies in some parts of the oceans as previously thought. As surface waters warm, they hold less oxygen dissolved from the air; they also become less dense and thus less [...]
12:46 AM | TDB Today: Dragon breath and the age of consequences
In my column at The Daily Blog this week — Dragon breath and the Age Of Consequences — I take a look at the latest news on Arctic methane. It’s not good, as Jason Box demonstrated by not mincing his words about the seriousness of the threat. For an idea of the consequences, I strongly […]

August 10, 2014

12:04 AM | Wake up and smell the coffee (before it’s too late)
Coffee is more than just a hot beverage: consumption of the bitter liquid made by steeping the ground roast beans of an Ethiopian plant is an obsession for many. In this interesting short video from the Royal Botanic Gardens at Kew, coffee researchers explain how they are monitoring climate changes and its impacts on coffee […]

August 06, 2014

9:34 PM | It is backed like a weasel
Carlos Frenk, Director of the Institute for Computational Cosmology at Durham University says some sane-but-not-surprising things about peer review. In other respects, the venue this appears in – IAI, the Institute of Art and Ideas – appears to have been taken over by septics, see for example Climate Change: a Rhetoric of Risk, Are climate…

August 05, 2014

9:00 PM | Strong La Niñas recently? Blame the Atlantic—and a volcano
An eruption over 20 years ago may have shifted warming trends around the globe.
Editor's Pick
8:52 PM | Despair of the Dork Side
I can’t hold back from taking the piss any longer, although Sou has done it already. WUWT has had not one but two ridiculously stupid articles about the rise in CO2 not being human-caused just recently. You don’t even need to read the details to know they are stupid, because that the CO2 rise is…
1:58 PM | Unforced variations: Aug 2014
This month’s open thread. Keeping track of the Arctic sea ice minimum is interesting but there should be plenty of other climate science topics to discuss (if people can get past the hype about the Ebola outbreak or imaginary claims about anomalous thrusting). As with last month, pleas no discussion of mitigation strategies – it […]

August 04, 2014

9:24 PM | Energy and Climate Change committee: new inquiry: IPCC 5th Assessment Review: published
Back in 2013 I didn’t take terribly seriously an announced review of the IPCC AR5 by a ctte of the UK parliament. Now they’ve been rude enough to publish their results without consulting me, and sneaked it out while I was on holiday. Do I regret my snark? I can hardly complain about their conclusions:…
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