Posts

September 01, 2014

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5:11 PM | Neil Tyson On The Politics Of Science Denial
Spend any time in American science media and you may find some of them are pretty far out of the political mainstream; so far out, they may not even be friends with anyone who has not always voted the same way as them.So it's unsurprising that much of science media once perpetuated the claim that 'science votes Democrat.'  Humans are fallible and confirmation bias is sneaky. As was apocryphally attributed to New Yorker film critic Pauline Kael after the 1972 Presidential election and a […]
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1:21 PM | It Might Sound Stupid, But Maybe It Isn't The Economy This Time
An oft-repeated bit of campaign advice held that, "It's the economy, stupid." But maybe in this mid-term election cycle, that's not quite right.
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2:41 AM | August ’14 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
  Bloggers in the thick of election campaign? Image Credit: Against the Current PLEASE NOTE: Sitemeter is playing up again making it impossible to automatically get the stats using the normal process. I have done a manual work around but it was … Continue reading →
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2:41 AM | August ’14 – NZ blogs sitemeter ranking
  Bloggers in the thick of election campaign? Image Credit: Against the Current PLEASE NOTE: Sitemeter is playing up again making it impossible to automatically get the stats using the normal process. I have done a manual work around but it was … Continue reading →

August 28, 2014

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1:37 PM | Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992
This one from 1995 (with D. Stephen Voss and Gary King) was fun. For our “Why are American Presidential election campaign polls so variable when votes are so predictable?” project a few years earlier, Gary and I had analyzed individual-level survey responses from 60 pre-election polls that had been conducted by several different polling organizations. […] The post Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992 appeared first on […]
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10:57 AM | Good governance, democracy and investment in science
From what others have written here at sciblogs most readers will know that we have elections on in New Zealand soon. While reading the newspaper last weekend I encountered an opinion piece by political commenter Colin James that includes commentary on investing in science that readers might be interested in. His essay opens by talking [...]

August 27, 2014

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8:09 PM | Mapping Out The End Days Of The Midterm Campaign
The end of August heralds the start to the final phase of the 2014 election season. As primaries wrap up and candidates ready themselves for November, NPR's Charlie Mahtesian lays out the political landscape.
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1:36 PM | Discussion of “A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections”
From 1994. I don’t have much to say about this one. The paper I was discussing (by Samuel Merrill) had already been accepted by the journal—I might even have been a referee, in which case the associate editor had decided to accept the paper over my objections—and the editor gave me the opportunity to publish […] The post Discussion of “A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections” appeared first on Statistical […]

August 26, 2014

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1:16 PM | Review of “Forecasting Elections”
From 1993. The topic of election forecasting sure gets a lot more attention than it used to! Here are some quotes from my review of that book by Michael Lewis-Beck and Tom Rice: Political scientists are aware that most voters are consistent in their preferences, and one can make a good guess just looking at […] The post Review of “Forecasting Elections” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

August 25, 2014

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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Discussion of “Maximum entropy and the nearly black object” Tues: Review of “Forecasting Elections” Wed: Discussion of “A probabilistic model for the spatial distribution of party support in multiparty elections” Thurs: Pre-election survey methodology: details from nine polling organizations, 1988 and 1992 Fri: Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research Sat, Sun: You might […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical […]

August 19, 2014

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3:21 PM | Buzz Aldrin endorses candidate in Alaska Senate race
Republicans in Alaska are going to the polls today to select a candidate to run against incumbent Sen. Mark Begich (D) in the November general election. One of those candidates is hoping that a last-minute endorsement from a famous former astronaut who typically does not get involved in campaigns will help swing a few of [...]

August 18, 2014

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4:35 AM | Cash for comment and New Zealand’s MOD squad
Nicky Hager’s new book Dirty Politics appears set to colour the whole tone of the current election campaign and have some impact on the election’s outcome. It has also given us a window into the tactics of rightwing bloggers, lobbyists and political strategists intent on discrediting scientists who present evidence that conflicts with their political [...]

August 16, 2014

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4:42 PM | Thousands Of Anti-Government Protesters March In Pakistan
The demonstrators allege election fraud by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and are demanding he step down. The political instability has prompted fears of a possible army coup.

August 15, 2014

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8:09 PM | Massive Rallies Descend On Islamabad, As Authorities Dig In Trenches
Thousands of people are converging on Pakistan's capital, Islamabad, for a protest rally against the government. The protesters began their 300-mile march in Lahore, led by Imran Khan, who believes he was robbed of last year's election by voting fraud. Meanwhile, a populist cleric is leading a separate march on the capital.

August 10, 2014

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12:02 PM | Turkey's Erdogan Seeks An Expanded Role As President
After 12 years as Turkey's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is poised to jump to the president's office in Sunday's election. Secular Turks fear he will push the nation toward autocracy.

August 09, 2014

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1:42 AM | Perspectives on Climate Change
As part of a global effort to mobilise action from governments, business, finance and society, countries will meet in 2015 to determine a global climate agreement through the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Climate change and climate policy have become political fodder for elections worldwide, with partisan views dividing nations. The burgeoning research […] The post Perspectives on Climate Change appeared first on Wiley Asia Blog.

August 03, 2014

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1:18 PM | Afghanistan Officials To Audit Votes From June Election
Election officials in Afghanistan are preparing for an audit of all the votes cast in the June election after the two candidates disagreed on how to determine which votes were fraudulent.

August 02, 2014

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12:29 PM | As Congress Breaks, Inaction Remains Most Notable Action
A combination of partisanship, upcoming mid-term elections and divided Republicans in the House helped mold a Congress this session that had trouble passing even must-pass bills.
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