Posts

October 05, 2014

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1:04 PM | Anova is great—if you interpret it as a way of structuring a model, not if you focus on F tests
Shravan Vasishth writes: I saw on your blog post that you listed aggregation as one of the desirable things to do. Do you agree with the following argument? I want to point out a problem with repeated measures ANOVA in talk: In a planned experiment, say a 2×2 design, when we do a repeated measures […] The post Anova is great—if you interpret it as a way of structuring a model, not if you focus on F tests appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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12:11 PM | Books or Papers?
I was delighted by the recent publication of Jill Walker Rettberg’s book Seeing Ourselves Through Technology: How We Use Selfies, Blogs and Wearable Devices to See and Shape Ourselves. This is partly due to the interesting discussion of phenomena like … Continue reading →

October 04, 2014

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1:19 PM | Carrie McLaren was way out in front of the anti-Gladwell bandwagon
Here she was back in 2005, way before Gladwell-bashing became cool. The post Carrie McLaren was way out in front of the anti-Gladwell bandwagon appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 03, 2014

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8:45 PM | Crossing Class Boundaries
Yesterday the New York Times published an opinion piece written by University of Toronto, Rotman School of Management Professor, Stephane Cote and I on the challenges of crossing social class boundaries. You can find the article here. This blog post accompanies that article with a few notes about the research.Read More->
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1:32 PM | 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha??
Alan Sloane writes: The OECD put out a report drawing on their PISA and TALIS data: http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.ie/2014/07/poverty-and-perception-of-poverty-how.html I notice that it’s already attracted a NY Times op-ed by David Leonhart: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/23/upshot/principals-in-us-are-more-likely-to-consider-their-students-poor.html There are a number of things I find strange in its analysis and interpretation but, for starters, there’s the horizontal axis in […]
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12:39 PM | A breakthrough in clinical trials testing a treatment for celiac disease
A new drug for celiac disease appears to attenuate gluten-induced small bowel mucosal injury. Patients who were administered the new ALV003 drug in a clinical trial also experienced less abdominal...
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12:07 PM | Network Theory and Financial Risk
#NetworkScience I had the privilege of attending and participating in the inaugural Financial Risk and Network Theory Seminar at Cambridge University. The event was organized by Kimmo Soramäki, PhD, founder of Financial Networks Analytics, hosted by the Cambridge Center for … Continue reading →
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9:06 AM | Media als middel
Afgelopen woensdag sprak ik op de Vakconferentie Wetenschapscommunicatie over wat we geleerd hebben in de mediastorm rond ons werk vorig jaar. Hier zijn mijn slides: Veel wetenschappers onderhouden een haat-liefde verhouding met de media. Media-aandacht is moeilijk te krijgen en als … Continue reading →

October 02, 2014

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11:07 PM | Rss move
Our RSS feed is now directly accessible via andrewgelman.com/feed – no need to go through feedburner. You need to resubscribe to the feed. The post Rss move appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:30 PM | Gamifying Surveys to Increase Completion Rate and Data Quality
One of the biggest challenges for research involving surveys is maintaining a high rate of completion and compliance with survey requirements. First, we want a reasonably representative sample of whomever we send the survey to. Second, we want those that do complete the survey to do so honestly and thoughtfully. One approach that researchers have taken to […]The post Gamifying Surveys to Increase Completion Rate and Data Quality appeared first on NeoAcademic.Related articles […]
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1:15 PM | International Journal of Epidemiology versus Hivemind and the Datagoround
The Hivemind wins (see the comment thread here, which is full of detective work from various commenters). As I wrote as a postscript to that earlier post, maybe we should call this the “stone soup” or “Bem” phenomenon, when a highly flawed work stimulates interesting, thoughtful discussion. The post International Journal of Epidemiology versus Hivemind and the Datagoround appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 01, 2014

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3:20 PM | Keynote on Pervasive Play & Social Media
This Friday I have been invited to present the keynote in the Social Media in Education seminar, organised by TAOKK & TAMK in Tampere. My title is “Mobile and Pervasive Play – the New Potentials for Communication, Information Seeking and … Continue reading →
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2:06 PM | In defense of stories and classroom activities, from a resubmission letter from 1999
I was going through my files looking for some old data (which I still haven’t found!) and came across a letter from 1999 accompanying the submission of a revision of this article with Glickman. Here’s a part of the letter, a response to some questions of one of the reviewers: With regard to the comment […] The post In defense of stories and classroom activities, from a resubmission letter from 1999 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:30 PM | Can anyone guess what went wrong here?
OK, here’s a puzzle for all of you. I received the following email: Dear Professor Gelman: The editor of ** asked me to write to see if you would be willing to review MS ** entitled ** We are hoping for a review within the next 2-3 weeks if possible. I would appreciate if you […] The post Can anyone guess what went wrong here? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:00 AM | The Fluke That Thwarted an Invasion
Microbes are the omnipresent yet frequently unacknowledged adversary on the battlefield. Though microscopic in size, their very macroscopic effects can decimate armies, foil the best planned war initiatives, and change the course of history. In one of the greatest military debacles in history, Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812 failed on account of body lice […]The post The Fluke That Thwarted an Invasion appeared first on Body Horrors.

September 30, 2014

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3:55 PM | Are Ivy League schools overrated?
I won’t actually answer the above question, as I am offering neither a rating of these schools nor a measure of how others rate them (which would be necessary to calibrate the “overrated” claim). What I am doing is responding to an email from Mark Palko, who wrote: I [Palko] am in broad agreement with […] The post Are Ivy League schools overrated? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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10:30 AM | Zbikowski on music and social interaction
Instead of probing the cultural or historical context for musical utterances, or the complex networks of social interaction that give rise to musical behavior, music theory continues to focus on details of musical discourse with an obsessiveness that is both … Continue reading →
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8:05 AM | Imatra
I will be talking today about “Playfulness and the Transformation of Learning” (“Pelillisyys, leikillisyys ja oppimisen muodonmuutos”) in teacher education event in Imatra, Eastern Finland. There will be also an opportunity to provide some demonstrations on the most popular digital … Continue reading →
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6:43 AM | CFP: DiGRA 2015
Call for papers: DiGRA 2015 Diversity of play: Games – Cultures – Identities 14-17 May 2015, Lüneburg, Germany www.digra2015.org Video game culture has had a self-image of being a distinct cultural form united by participants identifying themselves as ‘gamers’ for many years. Variations in this identity … Continue reading →
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5:11 AM | The Menace that is Sprawl
The following table is important. This table shows the largest continual migration pattern in American history, and if the data is to be believed, it shows no sign of stopping. […]
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4:34 AM | No, I didn’t say that!
Faye Flam wrote a solid article for the New York Times on Bayesian statistics, and as part of her research she spent some time on the phone with me awhile ago discussing the connections between Bayesian inference and the crisis in science criticism. My longer thoughts on this topic are in my recent article, “The […] The post No, I didn’t say that! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 29, 2014

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3:30 PM | Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height
God is in every leaf of every tree. The leaf in question today is the height of journalist and Twitter aficionado Jon Lee Anderson, a man who got some attention a couple years ago after disparaging some dude for having too high a tweets-to-followers ratio. Anderson called the other guy a “little twerp” which made […] The post Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical […]
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height Tues: Are Ivy League schools overrated? Wed: Can anyone guess what went wrong here? Thurs: What went wrong Fri: 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha?? Sat: Carrie McLaren was […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 28, 2014

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1:18 PM | People used to send me ugly graphs, now I get these things
Antonio Rinaldi points me to this journal article which reports: We found a sinusoidal pattern in CMM [cutaneous malignant melanoma] risk by season of birth (P = 0.006). . . . Adjusted odds ratios for CMM by season of birth were 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05–1.39; P = 0.008] for spring, 1.07 (95% CI, […] The post People used to send me ugly graphs, now I get these things appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 27, 2014

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10:20 PM | June 5, 1981. Pneumocystis Pneumonia. Los Angeles.
In the period October 1980-May 1981, 5 young men, all active homosexuals, were treated for biopsy-confirmed Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia at 3 different hospitals in Los Angeles, California. Two of the patients died. All 5 patients had laboratory-confirmed previous or current cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and candidal mucosal infection. Case reports of these patients follow. In honor of National […]The post June 5, 1981. Pneumocystis Pneumonia. Los Angeles. appeared first on […]
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1:13 PM | “An exact fishy test”
Macartan Humphreys supplied this amusing demo. Just click on the link and try it—it’s fun! Here’s an example: I came up with 10 random numbers: > round(.5+runif(10)*100) [1] 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 and entered them into Macartan’s app, which promptly responded: Unbelievable! You chose the numbers 56 23 70 […] The post “An exact fishy test” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 26, 2014

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1:22 PM | MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum
A couple years ago I gave a talk at West Point. It was fun. The students are all undergraduates, and most of the instructors were just doing the job for two years or so between other assignments. The permanent faculty were focused on teaching and organizing the curriculum. As part of my visit I sat […] The post MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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