Posts

October 01, 2014

+
1:30 PM | Can anyone guess what went wrong here?
OK, here’s a puzzle for all of you. I received the following email: Dear Professor Gelman: The editor of ** asked me to write to see if you would be willing to review MS ** entitled ** We are hoping for a review within the next 2-3 weeks if possible. I would appreciate if you […] The post Can anyone guess what went wrong here? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
3:00 AM | The Fluke That Thwarted an Invasion
Microbes are the omnipresent yet frequently unacknowledged adversary on the battlefield. Though microscopic in size, their very macroscopic effects can decimate armies, foil the best planned war initiatives, and change the course of history. In one of the greatest military debacles in history, Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812 failed on account of body lice […]The post The Fluke That Thwarted an Invasion appeared first on Body Horrors.

September 30, 2014

+
3:55 PM | Are Ivy League schools overrated?
I won’t actually answer the above question, as I am offering neither a rating of these schools nor a measure of how others rate them (which would be necessary to calibrate the “overrated” claim). What I am doing is responding to an email from Mark Palko, who wrote: I [Palko] am in broad agreement with […] The post Are Ivy League schools overrated? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
10:30 AM | Zbikowski on music and social interaction
Instead of probing the cultural or historical context for musical utterances, or the complex networks of social interaction that give rise to musical behavior, music theory continues to focus on details of musical discourse with an obsessiveness that is both … Continue reading →
+
8:05 AM | Imatra
I will be talking today about “Playfulness and the Transformation of Learning” (“Pelillisyys, leikillisyys ja oppimisen muodonmuutos”) in teacher education event in Imatra, Eastern Finland. There will be also an opportunity to provide some demonstrations on the most popular digital … Continue reading →
+
6:43 AM | CFP: DiGRA 2015
Call for papers: DiGRA 2015 Diversity of play: Games – Cultures – Identities 14-17 May 2015, Lüneburg, Germany www.digra2015.org Video game culture has had a self-image of being a distinct cultural form united by participants identifying themselves as ‘gamers’ for many years. Variations in this identity … Continue reading →
+
5:11 AM | The Menace that is Sprawl
The following table is important. This table shows the largest continual migration pattern in American history, and if the data is to be believed, it shows no sign of stopping. […]
+
4:34 AM | No, I didn’t say that!
Faye Flam wrote a solid article for the New York Times on Bayesian statistics, and as part of her research she spent some time on the phone with me awhile ago discussing the connections between Bayesian inference and the crisis in science criticism. My longer thoughts on this topic are in my recent article, “The […] The post No, I didn’t say that! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 29, 2014

+
3:30 PM | Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height
God is in every leaf of every tree. The leaf in question today is the height of journalist and Twitter aficionado Jon Lee Anderson, a man who got some attention a couple years ago after disparaging some dude for having too high a tweets-to-followers ratio. Anderson called the other guy a “little twerp” which made […] The post Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical […]
+
1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Some general principles of Bayesian data analysis, arising from a Stan analysis of John Lee Anderson’s height Tues: Are Ivy League schools overrated? Wed: Can anyone guess what went wrong here? Thurs: What went wrong Fri: 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha?? Sat: Carrie McLaren was […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 28, 2014

+
1:18 PM | People used to send me ugly graphs, now I get these things
Antonio Rinaldi points me to this journal article which reports: We found a sinusoidal pattern in CMM [cutaneous malignant melanoma] risk by season of birth (P = 0.006). . . . Adjusted odds ratios for CMM by season of birth were 1.21 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.05–1.39; P = 0.008] for spring, 1.07 (95% CI, […] The post People used to send me ugly graphs, now I get these things appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 27, 2014

+
10:20 PM | June 5, 1981. Pneumocystis Pneumonia. Los Angeles.
In the period October 1980-May 1981, 5 young men, all active homosexuals, were treated for biopsy-confirmed Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia at 3 different hospitals in Los Angeles, California. Two of the patients died. All 5 patients had laboratory-confirmed previous or current cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and candidal mucosal infection. Case reports of these patients follow. In honor of National […]The post June 5, 1981. Pneumocystis Pneumonia. Los Angeles. appeared first on […]
+
1:13 PM | “An exact fishy test”
Macartan Humphreys supplied this amusing demo. Just click on the link and try it—it’s fun! Here’s an example: I came up with 10 random numbers: > round(.5+runif(10)*100) [1] 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 and entered them into Macartan’s app, which promptly responded: Unbelievable! You chose the numbers 56 23 70 […] The post “An exact fishy test” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 26, 2014

+
1:22 PM | MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum
A couple years ago I gave a talk at West Point. It was fun. The students are all undergraduates, and most of the instructors were just doing the job for two years or so between other assignments. The permanent faculty were focused on teaching and organizing the curriculum. As part of my visit I sat […] The post MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 25, 2014

+
9:51 PM | Mathe als Alltagsrätsel – Das Tierheimspiel
Stellen Sie sich vor, Sie sind LeiterIn eines Tierheims. Sie kennen Ihre Gäste sehr gut; deren Vorlieben und Abneigung. Die einen mögen sich, anderen stellt es die Haare und Federn nur so auf, wenn sie sich begegnen. Fakt ist: alle Käfige liegen aneinandergereiht. Ob Hund, Katz, Schildkröte, Schaf, Kuh, Pferd, Hase oder Maus – Sie sollen für jeden die richtigen Nachbarn finden. Es liegt an Ihnen, ob im Heim Käfig an Käfig gekläfft und gefaucht wird; […]
+
8:55 PM | Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height
I’d like to see a Stan implementation of the analysis presented in this comment by Gary from a year and a half ago. The post Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
7:56 PM | “Derek Jeter was OK”
Tom Scocca files a bizarrely sane column summarizing the famous shortstop’s accomplishments: Derek Jeter was an OK ballplayer. He was pretty good at playing baseball, overall, and he did it for a pretty long time. . . . You have to be good at baseball to last 20 seasons in the major leagues. . . […] The post “Derek Jeter was OK” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
1:30 PM | Grad School: Online I/O Psychology Master’s and PhD Program List
Grad School Series: Applying to Graduate School in Industrial/Organizational Psychology Starting Sophomore Year: Should I get a Ph.D. or Master’s? | How to Get Research Experience Starting Junior Year: Preparing for the GRE | Getting Recommendations Starting Senior Year: Where to Apply | Traditional vs. Online Degrees | Personal Statements Interviews/Visits: Preparing for Interviews | Going to Interviews In Graduate […]
+
1:24 PM | Waic for time series
Helen Steingroever writes: I’m currently working on a model comparison paper using WAIC, and would like to ask you the following question about the WAIC computation: I have data of one participant that consist of 100 sequential choices (you can think of these data as being a time series). I want to compute the WAIC […] The post Waic for time series appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 24, 2014

+
2:55 PM | What do you really need on this earth?
Natural conversations are a great source of data for all sorts of linguistic research. Linguists and conversation analysts usually study them primarily for their structure, not their content. This is not out of disinterest, but out of empirical prudence. The … Continue reading →
+
1:14 PM | Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic]
This one is like shooting fish in a barrel but sometimes the job just has to be done. . . . The paper is by Daryl Bem, Patrizio Tressoldi, Thomas Rabeyron, and Michael Duggan, it’s called “Feeling the Future: A Meta-Analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events,” and it begins […] The post Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic] appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]

September 23, 2014

+
1:35 PM | Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes
We had a discussion last month on the sister blog regarding the effects of subliminal messages on political attitudes.  It started with a Larry Bartels post entitled “Here’s how a cartoon smiley face punched a big hole in democratic theory,” with the subtitle, “Fleeting exposure to ‘irrelevant stimuli’ powerfully shapes our assessments of policy arguments,” discussing the […] The post Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim […]
+
6:22 AM | A Cwinye Leng On The Ebola Frontline: The Heroes of Lacor
Up until this year, the largest Ebola outbreak the world had witnessed occurred between 8 October 2000 and 16 January 2001 in Uganda, centered around the town of Gulu. Gulu is largest city of northern Uganda. It is located approximately 340 km north of Kampala, Uganda’s capital, and takes between 5 and 6 hours to reach by bus. It has a population of roughly 155,000 inhabitants. The Nilotic Luo-speaking Acholi people are the main inhabitants of Gulu (80%). The private... Read more
123
83 Results