Posts

August 16, 2014

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7:32 AM | European Summer School in Games and Play Studies
Next two weeks will be intensive time in Utrecht, the Netherlands, as “Identity and Interdisciplinarity in Games and Play Research”, the joint European Summer School of games and play studies takes place at the Utrecht University. My keynote takes place first … Continue reading →

August 15, 2014

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1:03 PM | “Psychohistory” and the hype paradox
Lee Wilkinson writes: I thought you might be interested in this post. I was asked about this by someone at Skytree and replied with this link to Tyler Vigen’s Spurious Correlations. What’s most interesting about Vigen’s site is not his video (he doesn’t go into the dangers of correlating time series, for example), but his […] The post “Psychohistory” and the hype paradox appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

August 14, 2014

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1:17 PM | August 2014: Brian Mautz on penis size; eat fruit to get a tan
Stay out of the sun! New research suggests that the skin colour change associated with sun tanning isn't as attractive as the effects of eating carotenoid-rich fruits and vegetables, like tomatoes, pumpkins, and spinach. Can an attractive personality make you appear more attractive? And we find out why when women see red, women see red.Plus, as a special summer surprise, Hannah Rowland of the Behavioural Ecology and Evolution Podcast interviews Brian Mautz at the ISBE2014 conference about his […]
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1:05 PM | Luck vs. skill in poker
The thread of our recent discussion of quantifying luck vs. skill in sports turned to poker, motivating the present post. 1. Can good poker players really “read” my cards and figure out what’s in my hand? For a couple years in grad school a group of us had a regular Thursday-night poker game, nickel-dime-quarter with […] The post Luck vs. skill in poker appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

August 13, 2014

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9:01 PM | How Did Patterns Help Reveal an Older Origin of Mummies?
I want to talk about patterns. We take them for granted but they shape our lives. That morning coffee you need to start your day has more meaning than you think. We build our sense of self on... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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9:01 PM | How Did Patterns Help Reveal an Older Origin of Mummies?
I want to talk about patterns. We take them for granted but they shape our lives. That morning coffee you need to start your day has more meaning than you think. We build our sense of self on... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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1:30 PM | Updike and O’Hara
I just read this review by Louis Menand of a biography of John Updike. Lots of interesting stuff here, with this, perhaps, being the saddest: When Updike received the National Book Foundation Medal for Distinguished Contribution to American Letters, in 1998, two of [his second wife's] children were present, but his were not invited. Menand’s […] The post Updike and O’Hara appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

August 12, 2014

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9:26 PM | How do you interpret standard errors from a regression fit to the entire population?
James Keirstead writes: I’m working on some regressions for UK cities and have a question about how to interpret regression coefficients. . . . In a typical regression, one would be working with data from a sample and so the standard errors on the coefficients can be interpreted as reflecting the uncertainty in the choice […] The post How do you interpret standard errors from a regression fit to the entire population? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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2:41 PM | El “efecto pregunta-conducta” aplicado a la salud
A veces, la mejor estrategia para promover un cambio en la conducta es emplear una técnica sencilla. No hacen falta grandes intervenciones. En una suerte de “minimalismo psicológico”, menos es […]
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1:33 PM | Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time
Josh Miller writes: I came across your paper in the Journal of Management on unreplicable research, and in it you illustrate a point about the null hypothesis via the hot hand literature. I am writing you because I’d like to move your current prior (even if our work uses a classical approach). I am also […] The post Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the […]
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9:09 AM | KINU-Grinding up the Ingredients for Entrepreneurship
#NetworkScience As part of our ongoing data collection effort in support of the Network Science Center at West Point’s research project entitled, “Developing Network Models of Entrepreneurial Ecosystems,” we previously visited the Dar Teknohama Business Incubator and the Buni Collaboration … Continue reading →

August 11, 2014

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8:23 PM | The Science of Loneliness
Friends and relatives might be surprised that I think of myself as lonely. But I do, which is why I was so struck by the findings of John Cacioppo, one of the nation's leading experts on the science of loneliness, that suggest the lonely brain is its own worst enemy, seeing social rejection in every interaction -- which sparks a destructive, self-defeating loop.read more
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3:03 PM | Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks
Sander Greenland is a leading epidemiologist and educator who’s strongly influenced my thinking on hierarchical models by pointing out that often the data do not supply much information for estimating the group-level variance, a problem that can be particularly severe when the number of groups is low. (And, in some sense, the number of groups […] The post Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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1:40 PM | Psychological Barriers in Economic Inequality Reduction
Today I wrote a blog for New Left Project on psychology research examining perceptions of, and responses to, economic inequality. The post features cutting-edge research by prominent social psychologists Mike Norton and Dan Ariely, as well as research from my own laboratory at the University of Illinois. An excerpt:"The United States is one of the most unequal and rigidly stratified societies in the industrialised world.  In the wake of the Great Recession, it has become […]
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Discussion with Sander Greenland on posterior predictive checks Tues: Understanding the hot hand, and the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the hot hand, and the myth of the myth of the myth of the hot hand, all at the same time Wed: Updike and O’Hara Thurs: Luck […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

August 10, 2014

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7:23 PM | Data & Visualization Tools to Track Ebola
I’ve received the following email (slightly edited for clarity): Can anyone recommend a turnkey, full-service solution to help the Liberian government track the spread of Ebola and get this information out to the public? They want something that lets healthcare workers update info from mobile phones, and a workflow that results in data visualizations. They […] The post Data & Visualization Tools to Track Ebola appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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1:50 PM | Cool new position available: Director of the Pew Research Center Labs
Peter Henne writes: I wanted to let you know about a new opportunity at Pew Research Center for a data scientist that might be relevant to some of your colleagues. I [Henne] am a researcher with the Pew Research Center, where I manage an international index on religious issues. I am also working with others […] The post Cool new position available: Director of the Pew Research Center Labs appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

August 09, 2014

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5:39 AM | Multi.Player 2 conference
Next week there will the Multi.Player 2: Compete, Cooperate, Communicate conference in Münster, Germany. There will be keynotes presented by Richard Bartle, Chris Ferguson, John L. Sherry and myself. The title of my talk is “Mixed Pleasures: Interdisciplinary Perspectives into … Continue reading →

August 08, 2014

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4:22 PM | The Entrepreneurial Ecosystem in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: Day 1
#NetworkScience I have the opportunity the lead a team of three cadets who are assisting with data collection in support of the Network Science Center at West Point’s research project entitled, “Developing Network Models of Entrepreneurial Ecosystems.” We are currently … Continue reading →
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1:20 PM | Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to 25%
Last year I came across an article, “Labor Market Returns to Early Childhood Stimulation: a 20-year Followup to an Experimental Intervention in Jamaica,” by Paul Gertler, James Heckman, Rodrigo Pinto, Arianna Zanolini, Christel Vermeerch, Susan Walker, Susan M. Chang, and Sally Grantham-McGregor, that claimed that early childhood stimulation raised adult earnings by 42%. At the […] The post Estimated effect of early childhood intervention downgraded from 42% to 25% appeared […]
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12:26 PM | Guess I'll Go Eat Worms
Friends and relatives might be surprised that I think of myself as lonely. But I do, which is why I was so struck by the findings of John Cacioppo, one of the nation's leading experts on the science of loneliness, that suggest the lonely brain is its own worst enemy, seeing social rejection in every interaction -- which sparks a destructive, self-defeating loop.read more

August 07, 2014

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1:30 PM | Pursuit of Inbox Zero Destroyed My Research Productivity
If you haven’t heard of it, inbox zero is an email management technique where you pursue an inbox clear of messages. You can accomplish this by doing one of five things to each message each time you go through your inbox or as messages arrive: delete, delegate, respond, defer, or do. Both the strength and challenge of inbox zero is that it […]The post Pursuit of Inbox Zero Destroyed My Research Productivity appeared first on NeoAcademic.Related […]
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1:06 PM | Nate Silver’s website
Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I believe you are aware that Nate Silver spoke at last year’s JSM and that he began a publication under ESPN (http://fivethirtyeight.com/). Do you have any opinions on the publication? Maybe some you wish to share with the public. I was hoping to hear your opinions about 538 […] The post Nate Silver’s website appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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4:39 AM | Psychology at the (Home) Movies: HBO’s The Wire
SourceAlthough I’m more than a decade late to the party, a recent fortunate Amazon.com prime membership has gifted me with access to HBO’s acclaimed series the Wire. For the last two months I’ve been watching the show weekly, digesting its contents in small consistent doses. My background as a middle class ivory tower academic makes the Wire foreign territory to me—I don’t have much personal experience with drug culture, or poverty, or oppression, or Baltimore (the […]

August 06, 2014

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6:45 PM | President of American Association of Buggy-Whip Manufacturers takes a strong stand against internal combustion engine, argues that the so-called “automobile” has “little grounding in theory” and that “results can vary widely based on the particular fuel that is used”
Some people pointed me to this official statement signed by Michael Link, president of the American Association for Public Opinion Research (AAPOR). My colleague David Rothschild and I wrote a measured response to Link’s statement which I posted on the sister blog. But then I made the mistake of actually reading what Link wrote, and […] The post President of American Association of Buggy-Whip Manufacturers takes a strong stand against internal combustion engine, argues that the […]
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1:15 PM | Scientific communication by press release
Hector Cordero-Guzman writes: I have a question for you about an ongoing congroversy\incident related to reporting of social science research. Please see article linked below if you have a chance. I think this incident exposes real problems in the way social science research is presented and how it reaches the public… http://www.latinorebels.com/2014/05/22/new-york-times-piece-on-hispanics-and-census-based-on-study-not-yet-finalized-or-public/ Essentially, we have […] The post […]
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11:00 AM | What will the future of education look like?
Scientific American’s August supplement takes a look at the changing landscape of education in the face of emerging technology, and asks the question, how do we increase interest and engagement in... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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11:00 AM | What will the future of education look like?
Scientific American’s August supplement takes a look at the changing landscape of education in the face of emerging technology, and asks the question, how do we increase interest and engagement in... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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6:41 AM | Analog Game Studies
Digital games are not everything there is in games, far from it. There is now a new journal, Analog Game Studies, for all of us interested in board games, table-top role-playing games, card games — I think that actually means … Continue reading →

August 05, 2014

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5:26 PM | Does death change our online networks?
A good friend of mine passed away in June. John had cancer. Before you offer condolences, you should know he did not want to be mourned. It’s been a hard request to follow, but he felt he had... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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