Posts

September 09, 2014

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1:49 PM | Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in the world”
Phillip Middleton sent this along, it’s from Peter Diamandis, who is best known for his X Prize, the “global leader in the creation of incentivized prize competitions.” Diamandis wrote: Phillip Middleton, Is technology making you work harder? Or giving you more time off? Seriously, it feels like it’s enabling me to work around the clock! […] The post Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in the world” appeared first […]
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11:46 AM | Professor Pertti Alasuutari from UTA to the board of the Academy of Finland
The Government of Finland has appointed a new board for the Academy of Finland. The new Board’s term of office will last until the end of 2018. The Board will...

September 08, 2014

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9:56 PM | My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm
Anti-Abortion Democrats, Jimmy Carter Republicans, and the Missing Leap Day Babies: Living with Uncertainty but Still Learning To learn about the human world, we should accept uncertainty and embrace variation. We illustrate this concept with various examples from our recent research (the above examples are with Yair Ghitza and Aki Vehtari) and discuss more generally […] The post My talk at the Simons Foundation this Wed 5pm appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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2:37 PM | My talk with David Schiminovich this Wed noon: “The Birth of the Universe and the Fate of the Earth: One Trillion UV Photons Meet Stan”
This talk will have two parts. (1) Astronomy professor David Schiminovich will discuss the ways in which recent large-scale sky surveys that include billions of data points can address questions such as, What will happen to the Earth and other planets when the Sun becomes a white dwarf? (2) Statistics professor Andrew Gelman will discuss […] The post My talk with David Schiminovich this Wed noon: “The Birth of the Universe and the Fate of the Earth: One Trillion UV Photons Meet […]
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: My talk with David Schiminovich this Wed noon: “The Birth of the Universe and the Fate of the Earth: One Trillion UV Photons Meet Stan” Tues: Suspiciously vague graph purporting to show “percentage of slaves or serfs in the world” Wed: “It’s as if you went into a bathroom in a bar and saw […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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11:00 AM | Is data really changing the nature of wearable technology?
Do you have a FitBit story? Last November, S came home with a Fitbit Flex. For those of you who don’t have one of these increasingly ubiquitous devices, it’s a small, plastic band that... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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11:00 AM | Is data really changing the nature of wearable technology?
Do you have a FitBit story? Last November, S came home with a Fitbit Flex. For those of you who don’t have one of these increasingly ubiquitous devices, it’s a small, plastic band that... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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9:22 AM | Gambling in Finland
I got my copies of Gambling in Finland: Themes and Data for Qualitative Research (Gaudeamus) today. It is a tightly packed volume of “what” and “how” of gambling studies, showcasing some interesting Finnish research projects and new data sets. Together … Continue reading →

September 07, 2014

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4:02 PM | Likelihood from quantiles?
Michael McLaughlin writes: Many observers, esp. engineers, have a tendency to record their observations as {quantile, CDF} pairs, e.g., x CDF(x) 3.2 0.26 4.7 0.39 etc. I suspect that their intent is to do some kind of “least-squares” analysis by computing theoretical CDFs from a model, e.g. Gamma(a, b), then regressing the observed CDFs against […] The post Likelihood from quantiles? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:11 PM | “Invasive Species – Friends or Foes?”
The topic of discussion “Invasive Species – Friends or Foes?” organised and hosted by The Royal Society of Edinburgh quickly polarised the room in opinions after both speakers each gave their 20 minute presentations. In the past all invasive species were labelled as bad however this black and white view has become blurred. The movement […]
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3:07 AM | Some time in the past 200 years the neighborhood has changed
“In that pleasant district of Merry England which is watered by the river Don, there extended in ancient times a large forest, covering the greater part of the beautiful hills and valleys which lie between Sheffield and the pleasant town of Doncaster.  The remains of this extensive wood are still to be seen at the […] The post Some time in the past 200 years the neighborhood has changed appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 06, 2014

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1:58 PM | How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data from the current year?
Juliet Price writes: I recently came across your blog post from 2009 about how statistical analysis differs when analyzing an entire population rather than a sample. I understand the part about conceptualizing the problem as involving a stochastic data generating process, however, I have a query about the paragraph on ‘making predictions about future cases, […] The post How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data from the current year? […]

September 05, 2014

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10:55 PM | Green Thumbery: Cultivating Culture
One of my goals this year—with a solid year of gardening experience under my belt—has been to try to make my garden pretty as well as practical. I’ve partially succeeded. The Bachelors... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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10:55 PM | Green Thumbery: Cultivating Culture
One of my goals this year—with a solid year of gardening experience under my belt—has been to try to make my garden pretty as well as practical. I’ve partially succeeded. The Bachelors... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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1:23 PM | Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science
Deborah Mayo and I had a recent blog discussion that I think might be of general interest so I’m reproducing some of it here. The general issue is how we think about research hypotheses and statistical evidence. Following Popper etc., I see two basic paradigms: Confirmationist: You gather data and look for evidence in support […] The post Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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8:01 AM | OASIS: Season Two
Today is the opening of Second Season in OASIS, our experimental play/library/living-room space in School of Information Sciences. There will be bubbly wine and heady ideas available in OASIS today, starting 2 pm – welcome! The invitation is here: http://oasis.uta.fi/season-2-opening-oasis/ Pictured: … Continue reading →

September 04, 2014

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1:25 PM | Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals?
Gabriel Power asks the above question, writing: I don’t recall seeing, on your blog or elsewhere, this question raised directly. Of course there is much talk about the importance of replication, mostly by statisticians, and economists are grudgingly following suit with top journals requiring datasets and code. But why not make it a simple requirement? […] The post Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]

September 03, 2014

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8:42 PM | Naypyidaw and the Global City
“It is not the strongest or the most intelligent who will survive but those who can best manage change.” – Charles Darwin  We live in an age fascinated with globalization. The […]
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1:43 PM | I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence
It’s funny. I’m the statistician, but I’m more skeptical about statistics, compared to these renowned scientists. The quotes Here’s one: “You have no choice but to accept that the major conclusions of these studies are true.” Ahhhh, but we do have a choice! First, the background. We have two quotes from this paper by E. […] The post I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence appeared first on […]
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5:00 AM | Felista’s Fable Shows a Woman Struggling with the Stigma of Fistula
Felista’s Fable swept the second annual Uganda Film Festival Awards held on Friday. It took home the awards for Best Screenplay, Best Actor (Isaac Kuddris), Best Feature Film, Film of the Year and Director of the Year (Dilman Dila). The film is about a woman struggling with the stigma of fistula, one of Ugandas least recognized problems. A woman which suffers from this childbirth injury is left with chronic incontinence and in most cases, her baby is still born. Unable... Read more

September 02, 2014

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9:44 PM | How will today’s technology change our concept of “work”?
Change is hard. We meet it with some trepidation and skepticism. This is certainly true when it comes to technology. Each wave of technological advancement has changed the economy; and in each age... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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9:44 PM | How will today’s technology change our concept of “work”?
Change is hard. We meet it with some trepidation and skepticism. This is certainly true when it comes to technology. Each wave of technological advancement has changed the economy; and in each age... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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1:23 PM | Questions about “Too Good to Be True”
Greg Won writes: I manage a team tasked with, among other things, analyzing data on Air Traffic operations to identify factors that may be associated with elevated risk. I think its fair to characterize our work as “data mining” (e.g., using rule induction, Bayesian, and statistical methods). One of my colleagues sent me a link […] The post Questions about “Too Good to Be True” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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9:35 AM | Tech Incubators in Africa: Too Fast, Too Soon?
As part of our ongoing data collection effort in support of the Network Science Center at West Point’s research project entitled, “Developing Network Models of Entrepreneurial Ecosystems,” we previously visited the Dar Teknohama Business Incubator, the Buni Collaboration Space, and … Continue reading →

September 01, 2014

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3:24 PM | Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out?
Evelyn Lamb adds to the conversation that Jeff Leek and I had a few months ago. It’s a topic that’s worth returning to, in light of our continuing discussions regarding the crisis of criticism in science. The post Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Tues: Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Wed: I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Thurs: Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Fri: Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science Sat: How does inference for next year’s data […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]

August 31, 2014

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7:14 PM | 4S / ESOCITE JOINT MEETING: “SCIENCE IN CONTEXT(S): SOUTHS AND NORTHS”
A report I wrote on this massive conference for my department’s website (link pending).  Thanks to Sara Peres for input. “A new formal collaboration in STS begins now”.  So opened the 172-page programme for the inaugural joint meeting between the … Continue reading →

August 30, 2014

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5:59 PM | Heroin’s Anthrax Problem
This may come as a total shock, but pure forms of illicit drugs can be hard to come by. Certain controlled substances are frequently adulterated, if not outright contaminated, by products that range from the household to the industrial to the pharmaceutical. Of course, some substances are more easily, frequently, and profitably adulterated than others: cocaine […]The post Heroin’s Anthrax Problem appeared first on Body Horrors.
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3:00 PM | On deck this month
Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Questions about “Too Good to Be True” I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, […]

August 29, 2014

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1:57 PM | Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research
One of my favorites, from 1995. Don Rubin and I argue with Adrian Raftery. Here’s how we begin: Raftery’s paper addresses two important problems in the statistical analysis of social science data: (1) choosing an appropriate model when so much data are available that standard P-values reject all parsimonious models; and (2) making estimates and […] The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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