Posts

October 10, 2014

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1:28 PM | When am I a conservative and when am I a liberal (when it comes to statistics, that is)?
Here I am one day: Let me conclude with a statistical point. Sometimes researchers want to play it safe by using traditional methods — most notoriously, in that recent note by Michael Link, president of the American Association of Public Opinion Research, arguing against non-probability sampling on the (unsupported) grounds that such methods have “little […] The post When am I a conservative and when am I a liberal (when it comes to statistics, that is)? appeared first on […]
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12:19 PM | Ludification renews the culture, society and businesses – a wide-ranging new research project starts
“Pervasive ludification and gamification, as well as the spreading of interactive media and online services are changing social interaction and the practices of work, learning and leisure as we speak,”...

October 09, 2014

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10:35 PM | Varieties of description in political science
Markus Kreuzer writes: I am organizing a panel at next year’s American Political Science Association meeting tentatively entitled “Varieties of Description.” The idea is to compare and contrast the ways in which different disciplines approach descriptive inferences, that how they go about collective data, how they validate descriptive inferences and what ontological assumptions they make. […] The post Varieties of description in political science appeared first on […]
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1:23 PM | “Science does not advance by guessing”
I agree with Deborah Mayo who agrees with Carlo Rovelli that “Science does not advance by guessing. It advances by new data or by a deep investigation of the content and the apparent contradictions of previous empirically successful theories.” And, speaking as a statistician and statistical educator, I think there’s a big problem with the […] The post “Science does not advance by guessing” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]

October 08, 2014

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5:04 PM | Nuevas direcciones en psicología y salud cardiovascular
Las enfermedades cardiovasculares son la primera causa de muerte a nivel global. Según datos de la Organización Mundial de la Salud, 17.3 millones de personas murieron debido a enfermedades cardiovasculares […]

Matthews, K (2013). Matters of the heart: advancing psychological perspectives on cardiovascular diseases, Perspectives on Psychological Science, 8 (6) 676-678. DOI: 10.1177/1745691613506908

Citation
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1:30 PM | Don’t Take Hiring Advice from Google
A number of articles have been appearing in my news feeds lately from representatives of Google talking about hiring interviews. Specifically, Mashable picked up a Q&A exchange posted on Quora in which someone asked: “Is there a link between job interview performance and job performance?” As any industrial/organizational (I/O) psychologist knows, the answer is, “It depends.” […]The post Don’t Take Hiring Advice from Google appeared first on […]
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1:23 PM | When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements about “typical” attitudes
This story has two points: 1. There’s a tendency for scientific results to be framed in absolute terms (in psychology, this corresponds to general claims about the population) but that can be a mistake in that sometimes the most important part of the story is variation; and 2. Before getting to the comparisons, it can […] The post When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements about “typical” attitudes appeared first on Statistical […]
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11:47 AM | New research into ludification and gamification
[Reposted research news from the University of Tampere:] “Pervasive ludification and gamification, as well as the spreading of interactive media and online services are changing social interaction and the practices of work, learning and leisure as we speak,” says Professor Frans Mäyrä … Continue reading →

October 07, 2014

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1:35 PM | Rational != Self-interested
I’ve said it before (along with Aaron Edlin and Noah Kaplan) and I’ll say it again. Rationality and self-interest are two dimensions of behavior. An action can be: 1. Rational and self-interested 2. Irrational and self-interested 3. Rational and altruistic 4. Irrational and altruistic. It’s easy enough to come up with examples of all of […] The post Rational != Self-interested appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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10:41 AM | An apology
Hi, everyone. I just wanted to record a quick message to apologise to those of you whose iTunes got absolutely swamped with all my old episodes yesterday.I think the reason it happened is because I changed some of the iTunes settings to allow all of those old episodes to be available for people to download if they wanted to. They'd dropped off the bottom of the list for some reason and I wanted to make them available again. But "Johnny Apple" decided to take it all a bit too literally and throw […]

October 06, 2014

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9:26 PM | “We have used Stan to study dead dolphins”
In response to our call for references to successful research using Stan, Matthieu Authier points us to this: @article{ year={2014}, journal={Biodiversity and Conservation}, volume={23}, number={10}, doi={10.1007/s10531-014-0741-3}, title={How much are stranding records affected by variation in reporting rates? A case study of small delphinids in the Bay of Biscay}, url={http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10531-014-0741-3}, keywords={Monitoring; Marine mammal; Strandings}, author={Authier, Matthieu […]
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6:47 PM | “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.”
Love the Liberry is still going strong. The post “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:49 PM | Toothbrushes are up to 95% less effective after 3 months and hugging your children regularly can raise their risk of anxiety, alcoholism, or depression by up to 95%
It sounds impossible, but this statistic is true: Hugging your child regularly can raise his or her risk of anxiety, alcoholism, or depression by up to 95%. I don’t even need a citation. Does it mean parents should stop hugging their children? No. You’d think that it couldn’t possibly be right, but the truth is […]
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3:30 PM | On deck this week
Mon: “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” Tues: Rational != Self-interested Wed: When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements about “typical” attitudes Thurs: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:00 PM | On deck this month
Lots of good stuff in the queue: “Regular Customer: It was so much easier when I was a bum. I didn’t have to wake up at 4am to go to work, didn’t have all these bills and girlfriends.” Rational != Self-interested When there’s a lot of variation, it can be a mistake to make statements […] The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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11:02 AM | September 2014: Why single, sex-hungry men crave an iPhone
This month we discover which personality traits make a person lucky in love. Also, how men and women respond differently when their partner is complimented, and why single men crave iPhones. Download the MP3What kind of man is desperate to buy an iPhone? New research suggests it's not only the kind of man who has the time and inclination to make himself a smartphone hat.The articles covered in the show:Hennighausen, C., & Schwab, F. (2014). Relationship status moderates men's conspicuous […]
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11:00 AM | Abercrombie on ‘paralanguage’
There is an urgent need for the comparative study, over as much of the world as possible, of the full range of paralinguistic phenomena — the kind of thing for which the linguistic field-worker is best fitted. Fact-finding, not theorising, … Continue reading →

October 05, 2014

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1:04 PM | Anova is great—if you interpret it as a way of structuring a model, not if you focus on F tests
Shravan Vasishth writes: I saw on your blog post that you listed aggregation as one of the desirable things to do. Do you agree with the following argument? I want to point out a problem with repeated measures ANOVA in talk: In a planned experiment, say a 2×2 design, when we do a repeated measures […] The post Anova is great—if you interpret it as a way of structuring a model, not if you focus on F tests appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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12:11 PM | Books or Papers?
I was delighted by the recent publication of Jill Walker Rettberg’s book Seeing Ourselves Through Technology: How We Use Selfies, Blogs and Wearable Devices to See and Shape Ourselves. This is partly due to the interesting discussion of phenomena like … Continue reading →

October 04, 2014

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1:19 PM | Carrie McLaren was way out in front of the anti-Gladwell bandwagon
Here she was back in 2005, way before Gladwell-bashing became cool. The post Carrie McLaren was way out in front of the anti-Gladwell bandwagon appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 03, 2014

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8:45 PM | Crossing Class Boundaries
Yesterday the New York Times published an opinion piece written by University of Toronto, Rotman School of Management Professor, Stephane Cote and I on the challenges of crossing social class boundaries. You can find the article here. This blog post accompanies that article with a few notes about the research.Read More->
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1:32 PM | 65% of principals say that at least 30% of students . . . wha??
Alan Sloane writes: The OECD put out a report drawing on their PISA and TALIS data: http://oecdeducationtoday.blogspot.ie/2014/07/poverty-and-perception-of-poverty-how.html I notice that it’s already attracted a NY Times op-ed by David Leonhart: http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/23/upshot/principals-in-us-are-more-likely-to-consider-their-students-poor.html There are a number of things I find strange in its analysis and interpretation but, for starters, there’s the horizontal axis in […]
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12:39 PM | A breakthrough in clinical trials testing a treatment for celiac disease
A new drug for celiac disease appears to attenuate gluten-induced small bowel mucosal injury. Patients who were administered the new ALV003 drug in a clinical trial also experienced less abdominal...
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12:07 PM | Network Theory and Financial Risk
#NetworkScience I had the privilege of attending and participating in the inaugural Financial Risk and Network Theory Seminar at Cambridge University. The event was organized by Kimmo Soramäki, PhD, founder of Financial Networks Analytics, hosted by the Cambridge Center for … Continue reading →
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9:06 AM | Media als middel
Afgelopen woensdag sprak ik op de Vakconferentie Wetenschapscommunicatie over wat we geleerd hebben in de mediastorm rond ons werk vorig jaar. Hier zijn mijn slides: Veel wetenschappers onderhouden een haat-liefde verhouding met de media. Media-aandacht is moeilijk te krijgen en als … Continue reading →

October 02, 2014

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11:07 PM | Rss move
Our RSS feed is now directly accessible via andrewgelman.com/feed – no need to go through feedburner. You need to resubscribe to the feed. The post Rss move appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:30 PM | Gamifying Surveys to Increase Completion Rate and Data Quality
One of the biggest challenges for research involving surveys is maintaining a high rate of completion and compliance with survey requirements. First, we want a reasonably representative sample of whomever we send the survey to. Second, we want those that do complete the survey to do so honestly and thoughtfully. One approach that researchers have taken to […]The post Gamifying Surveys to Increase Completion Rate and Data Quality appeared first on NeoAcademic.Related articles […]
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1:15 PM | International Journal of Epidemiology versus Hivemind and the Datagoround
The Hivemind wins (see the comment thread here, which is full of detective work from various commenters). As I wrote as a postscript to that earlier post, maybe we should call this the “stone soup” or “Bem” phenomenon, when a highly flawed work stimulates interesting, thoughtful discussion. The post International Journal of Epidemiology versus Hivemind and the Datagoround appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 01, 2014

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3:20 PM | Keynote on Pervasive Play & Social Media
This Friday I have been invited to present the keynote in the Social Media in Education seminar, organised by TAOKK & TAMK in Tampere. My title is “Mobile and Pervasive Play – the New Potentials for Communication, Information Seeking and … Continue reading →
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2:06 PM | In defense of stories and classroom activities, from a resubmission letter from 1999
I was going through my files looking for some old data (which I still haven’t found!) and came across a letter from 1999 accompanying the submission of a revision of this article with Glickman. Here’s a part of the letter, a response to some questions of one of the reviewers: With regard to the comment […] The post In defense of stories and classroom activities, from a resubmission letter from 1999 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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