Posts

July 14, 2014

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10:00 PM | Developments in Transnational Research Collaborations: Evidence from U.S. Higher-education Activity
In our knowledge-driven era, multiple and mutual benefits accrue from transnational research linkages. The article identifies important directions in transnational research collaborations involving U.S. universities revealed by key dimensions of 369 projects profiled on a U.S. higher-education association’s database. Project initiators, principal research fields, regional and country distributions, and the sources and amounts of funding for different types of transnational research […]
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8:31 PM | "Nothing Holy About Agony"
Maybe it's because, at the age of 82, he is thinking more personally about what it means to have a good death. But for whatever reason, Archbishop Desmond Tutu wrote an article this past weekend in favor of assisted dying, a reversal in his previous position that will no doubt have an impact far beyond his native South Africa.read more
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8:31 PM | House of Lords Bill Would Allow Physician-Assisted Dying
Maybe it's because, at the age of 82, he is thinking more personally about what it means to have a good death. But for whatever reason, Archbishop Desmond Tutu wrote an article this past weekend in favor of assisted dying, a reversal in his previous position that will no doubt have an impact far beyond his native South Africa.read more
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4:26 PM | Cómo resetear la mente dando un paseo
En uno de sus cuentos, Lewis Carroll nos dice que cuando Aquiles finalmente alcanzó a la tortuga se sentó sobre su caparazón y entablaron un diálogo. ¿Cómo, contrariamente a lo […]
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3:56 PM | “Building on theories used to describe magnets, scientists have put together a model that captures something very different . . .”
There’s a story that (some) physicists and science reporters seem to like, which is the idea that some clever mathematician or physicist can derive universal laws of social behavior. It’s time to tell you all: Hari Seldon never existed. Here’s what I think of these stories of physicists who discover the laws of society. I […] The post “Building on theories used to describe magnets, scientists have put together a model that captures something very different . . […]
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: “Building on theories used to describe magnets, scientists have put together a model that captures something very different . . .” Tues: Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Wed: “The Europeans and Australians were too eager to believe in renal denervation” Thurs: Ethics and statistics Fri: Differences between econometrics and statistics: From varying […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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7:30 AM | Stan London Meetup 16 July
Michael Betancourt announces: The Stan Development Team is happy to announce the first Stan London Meetup, Wednesday, July 16th, 6-8 PM Bentham House, Seminar Room 4 4-8 Endsleigh Gardens, London, WC1H 0EG Nominally the plan is to begin with a casual introduction to Stan and then break out into discussion based on the interests of […] The post Stan London Meetup 16 July appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 13, 2014

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9:44 AM | Stan goes to the World Cup
I thought it would be fun to fit a simple model in Stan to estimate the abilities of the teams in the World Cup, then I could post everything here on the blog, the whole story of the analysis from beginning to end, showing the results of spending a couple hours on a data analysis. […] The post Stan goes to the World Cup appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 12, 2014

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7:00 PM | D&D 5e: Probabilities for Advantage and Disadvantage
The new rules for D&D 5e (formerly known as D&D Next) are finally here: Dungeons & Dragons, 5th Edition: Basic Rules D&D 5e introduces a new game mechanic, advantage and disadvantage. Basic d20 Rules Usually, players roll a 20-sided die (d20) to resolve everyting from attempts at diplomacy to hitting someone with a sword. Each […] The post D&D 5e: Probabilities for Advantage and Disadvantage appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 11, 2014

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1:34 PM | Hey—this is a new kind of spam!
Ya think they’ll never come up with something new, and then this comes along: Dear Dr. Gelman, I am writing to inquire about the availability of obtaining a self-funded visiting scholar position in your institution for one year. I will cover all my expenses during my visit. I have completed a M.A. at Sichuan international […] The post Hey—this is a new kind of spam! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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11:09 AM | Studying violence experienced by children
Kirsi Peltonen has studied violence in both families and war. Her goal is to help children and parents overcome difficult situations and memories in their lives. Peltonen has participated in...

July 10, 2014

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6:39 PM | Chicago alert: Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today (Fri) 3:15pm
Niala Boodho on the Afternoon Shift will be interviewing Yair and me about our age-period-cohort extravaganza which became widely-known after being featured in this cool interactive graph by Amanda Cox in the New York Times. The actual paper is called The Great Society, Reagan’s revolution, and generations of presidential voting and was somewhat inspired by […] The post Chicago alert: Mister P and Stan to be interviewed on WBEZ today (Fri) 3:15pm appeared first on Statistical […]
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1:15 PM | Open-source tools for running online field experiments
Dean Eckles points me to this cool new tool for experimentation: I [Eckles] just wanted to share that in a collaboration between Facebook and Stanford, we have a new paper out about running online field experiments. One thing this paper does is describe some of the tools we use to design, deploy, and analyze experiments, […] The post Open-source tools for running online field experiments appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 09, 2014

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1:02 PM | “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?”
Someone who wishes to remain anonymous writes: I’m working on building a predictive model (not causal) of the onset of diabetes mellitus using electronic medical records from a semi-panel of HMO patients. The dependent variable is blood glucose level. The unit of analysis is the patient visit to a network doctor or hospitalization in a […] The post “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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1:50 AM | Flat Pilar’s world vacation
In 2010, Flat Pilar went around the world. Real Pilar never learned about it, probably never will. Paris, France Hong Kong, China Bangkok, Thailand Penang, Vietnam Timika, Indonesia Flat Pilar thanks Hurley & co. for the trip.

July 08, 2014

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1:02 PM | Just wondering
It would be bad news if a student in the class of Laurence Tribe or Alan Dershowitz or Ian Ayres or Edward Wegman or Matthew Whitaker or Karl Weick or Frank Fischer were to hand in an assignment that is obviously plagiarized copied from another source without attribution. Would the prof have the chutzpah to […] The post Just wondering appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 07, 2014

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3:37 PM | “Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed”
The following item came in over the Bayes email list: Hi, My name is Jo Fitzpatrick and I work as an Acquisition Editor for Packt Publishing ( www.packtpub.com ). We recently commissioned a book on Bayesian Data Analysis and I’m currently searching for an author to write this book. You need to have good working […] The post “Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: “Bayes Data Analysis – Author Needed” Tues: Just wondering Wed: “P.S. Is anyone working on hierarchical survival models?” Thurs: Open-source tools for running online field experiments Fri: Hey—this is a new kind of spam! Sat, Sun: As Chris Hedges would say: That’s the news, and I am outta here! The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 05, 2014

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1:31 PM | Visualizing sampling error and dynamic graphics
Robert Grant writes: What do you think of this visualisation from the NYT [in an article by Neil Irwin and Kevin Quealy but I'm not sure if they're the designers of the visualization]? I’m pretty impressed as a method of showing sampling error to a general audience! I agree. P.S. In related news, Antony Unwin […] The post Visualizing sampling error and dynamic graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:00 PM | Grand Opening: The Stan Shop
I finally put together a shop so everyone can order Stan t-shirts and mugs: The Stan Shop The art’s by Michael Malecki. The t-shirts and mugs are printed on demand by Spreadshirt. I tried out a sample and the results are great and have held up to machine washing and drying. There’s a markup of […] The post Grand Opening: The Stan Shop appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 04, 2014

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8:07 PM | Any colour, as long as it is black (Impactology case)
I have noticed that since I got myself the Macbook Pro Retina 13″, it has gradually been taking over my work travels, as well as being the main computer while at home. Since this Mac has been coming from my … Continue reading →
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4:56 PM | June 2014: How to get your sperm swimming like Michael Phelps
How to get a man’s sperm swimming like a shoal of miniature Michael Phelpses, and why expensive handbags are a weapon of war. We also find out what time of the month the idea of incest is most likely to make you throw up. Download the MP3New research shows that it's not just men who get excited by attractive women: their sperm do too.The articles covered in the show:Antfolk, J., Lieberman, D., Albrecht, A., & Santtila, P. (2014). The self-regulation effect of fertility status on […]
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1:56 PM | Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming!
We have no fireworks-related posts for July 4th but at least we have an item that’s appropriate for the summer weather. It comes from Daniel Lakeland, who writes: Recently in one of your blog posts (“priors I don’t believe”) there was a discussion in which I was advocating the use of dimensional analysis and dimensionless […] The post Dimensionless analysis as applied to swimming! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

July 03, 2014

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2:16 PM | Hub Accra
On previous blogs, I have described visits to several tech hubs and incubators across the African Continent. I recently visited Accra, Ghana and previously wrote about a recent visit to the Meltwater Entrepreneurial School of Technology (MEST). This blog introduces … Continue reading →
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1:43 PM | “The great advantage of the model-based over the ad hoc approach, it seems to me, is that at any given time we know what we are doing.”
The quote is from George Box, 1979. And this: Please can Data Analysts get themselves together again and become whole Statisticians before it is too late? Before they, their employers, and their clients forget the other equally important parts of the job statisticians should be doing, such as designing investigations and building models? I actually […] The post “The great advantage of the model-based over the ad hoc approach, it seems to me, is that at any given time we know what […]

July 02, 2014

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3:02 PM | Fertility Clinics and False Hope
IVF pioneer Lord Robert Winston calls the fertility industry an unregulated "jungle" that makes misleading promises for the sake of the bottom line. And he has some pretty harsh words for egg freezing, too.read more
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1:30 PM | Is Outrage Over the Facebook Mood Manipulation Study Ignorance or Anti-Science?
By now, you’ve probably heard about the latest controversy coming from Facebook – a researcher internal to Facebook, along with two university collaborators, recently published a paper in PNAS[1] that included an experimental manipulation of mood. Specifically, the researchers randomly assigned about 700,000 Facebook users to test an interesting causal question: does the emotional content […]Related articles from NeoAcademic:When You Are Popular on Facebook, Strangers Think […]
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1:30 PM | “Being an informed Bayesian: Assessing prior informativeness and prior–likelihood conflict”
Xiao-Li Meng sends along this paper (coauthored with Matthew Reimherr and Dan Nicolae), which begins: Dramatically expanded routine adoption of the Bayesian approach has substantially increased the need to assess both the confirmatory and contradictory information in our prior distribution with regard to the information provided by our likelihood function. We propose a diagnostic approach […] The post “Being an informed Bayesian: Assessing prior informativeness and […]

July 01, 2014

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4:38 PM | Randy Schekman: Ehrlicher Austausch von Wissen – Lindau 2014
Randy Schekman ist davon überzeugt, dass Wissenschaftler ihre Forschung auf verständliche und gut austarierte Weise kommunizieren können. Ein Gespräch. Gestern Morgen hatten einige Journalisten das Vergnügen noch vor seinem Eröffnungsvortrag der Lindauer Nobelpreisträgertagung 2014 ein Interview mit Randy Schekman führen zu dürfen. Schekman hatte kurz nach der Verleihung des Nobelpreises für Medizin 2013 mit seinen klaren Äußerungen […]
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3:39 PM | Neurocomic: el cerebro explicado a través del arte
Matteo Farinella es un personaje curioso. Es un artista italiano y además tiene un doctorado en Neurociencia, conseguido en el University College de Londres. Ha publicado artículos de investigación en […]
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