Posts

November 19, 2014

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12:44 AM | Stan hits bigtime
First Wikipedia, then the Times (featuring Yair Ghitza), now Slashdot (featuring Allen “PyStan” Riddell). Just get us on Gawker and we’ll have achieved total media saturation. Next step, backlash. Has Stan jumped the shark? Etc. (We’d love to have a “jump the shark” MCMC algorithm but I don’t know if or when we’ll get there. […] The post Stan hits bigtime appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

November 18, 2014

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2:04 PM | In which I play amateur political scientist
Mark Palko writes: I have a couple of what are probably poli sci 101 questions. The first involves the unintended (?) consequences of plans bring political power back to the common people. The two examples I have in mind are California’s ballot initiatives and parental trigger laws but I’m sure I’m missing some obvious ones. […] The post In which I play amateur political scientist appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

November 17, 2014

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9:32 PM | Guys, we need to talk. (Houston, we have a problem).
This post is by Phil Price. I’m posting it on Andrew’s blog without knowing exactly where he stands on this so it’s especially important for readers to note that this post is NOT BY ANDREW! Last week a prominent scientist, representing his entire team of researchers, appeared in widely distributed television interviews wearing a shirt […] The post Guys, we need to talk. (Houston, we have a problem). appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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4:00 PM | This is what “power = .06” looks like. Get used to it.
I prepared the above image for this talk. The calculations come from the second column of page 6 of this article, and the psychology study that we’re referring to is discussed here. The post This is what “power = .06” looks like. Get used to it. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: “Why continue to teach and use hypothesis testing?” Tues: In which I play amateur political scientist Wed: Retrospective clinical trials? Thurs: “If you’re not using a proper, informative prior, you’re leaving money on the table.” Fri: Hey, NYT: Former editor Bill Keller said that any editor who fails to confront a writer about an […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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11:00 AM | Why do we need to have so many meetings?
These days my calendar is a source of stress. My morning routine of reviewing my appointments for the day during my commute often leaves me dreading the coming workday—and frantically looking for 15... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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11:00 AM | Why do we need to have so many meetings?
These days my calendar is a source of stress. My morning routine of reviewing my appointments for the day during my commute often leaves me dreading the coming workday—and frantically looking for 15... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

November 16, 2014

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2:02 PM | Question about data mining bias in finance
Finance professor Ravi Sastry writes: Let’s say we have N vectors of data, {y_1,y_2,…,y_N}. Each is used as the dependent variable in a series of otherwise identical OLS regressions, yielding t-statistics on some parameter of interest, theta: {t_1,t_2,…,t_N}. The maximum t-stat is denoted t_n*, and the corresponding data are y_n*. These are reported publicly, as […] The post Question about data mining bias in finance appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]

November 15, 2014

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2:56 PM | Times have changed (sportswriting edition)
The name Tom Boswell came up in a recent comment thread and I was moved to reread his 1987 article, “99 Reasons Why Baseball Is Better Than Football.” The phrase “head injury” did not come up once. Boswell refers a few times to football’s dangerous nature (for example, “98. When a baseball player gets knocked […] The post Times have changed (sportswriting edition) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

November 14, 2014

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2:14 PM | “The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk in the psychology department Monday at noon
Monday 17 Nov at 12:10pm in Schermerhorn room 200B, Columbia University: Top journals in psychology routinely publish ridiculous, scientifically implausible claims, justified based on “p The post “The Statistical Crisis in Science”: My talk in the psychology department Monday at noon appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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11:46 AM | A racy take on science and art
Saara Särmä, an international relations (IR) researcher, creates risqué collages of caricatures depicting North Korea and other nations seeking nuclear capabilities. In the middle of her collages, Särmä draws “church...

November 13, 2014

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2:30 PM | Can I Use Mechanical Turk (MTurk) for a Research Study?
Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) has quickly become a highly visible source of participants for human subjects research. Psychologists, in particular, have begun to use MTurk as a major source of quick, cheap data. Studies with hundreds or thousands of participants can be identified in mere days, or sometimes, even a few hours. When it takes […]The post Can I Use Mechanical Turk (MTurk) for a Research Study? appeared first on NeoAcademic.Related articles from NeoAcademic:Gamification, […]

Landers, R.N. & Behrend, T.S. (2015). An inconvenient truth: Arbitrary distinctions between organizational, Mechanical Turk, and other convenience samples, Industrial and Organizational Psychology, 8 (2)

Citation
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2:09 PM | If you do an experiment with 700,000 participants, you’ll (a) have no problem with statistical significance, (b) get to call it “massive-scale,” (c) get a chance to publish it in a tabloid top journal. Cool!
David Hogg points me to this post by Thomas Lumley regarding a social experiment that was performed by randomly manipulating the content in the news feed of Facebook customers. The shiny bit about the experiment is that it involved 700,000 participants (or, as the research article, by Adam Kramera, Jamie Guillory, and Jeffrey Hancock, quaintly […] The post If you do an experiment with 700,000 participants, you’ll (a) have no problem with statistical significance, (b) get to call it […]
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10:00 AM | Tech Hub Sustainability In Africa #HubSustainability
Researcher Dan Evans will participate in a series of Google Hangouts partnering with AfriLabs and AfriHive discussing tech hub sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa. The first will occur on Friday the 14th of November at 7AM EST or, 12PM GMT. The … Continue reading →

November 12, 2014

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2:26 PM | “Patchwriting” is a Wegmanesque abomination but maybe there’s something similar that could be helpful?
Reading Thomas Basbøll’s blog I came across a concept I’d not previously heard about, “patchwriting,” which is defined as “copying from a source text and deleting some words, altering grammatical structures, or plugging in one synonym for another.” (See here for further discussion.) As Basbøll writes, this is simply a variant of plagiarism, indeed it’s […] The post “Patchwriting” is a Wegmanesque abomination but maybe […]
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9:45 AM | Networks and Military History
#NetworkScience Toward the beginning of October I participated in the first Workshop on Digital Methods for Military History, held over two days at Northeastern University and funded by the National Endowment for the Humanities. Naturally, network science featured prominently in … Continue reading →
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12:16 AM | Crowdsourcing Data Analysis 2: Gender, Status, and Science
Emily Robinson writes: Brian Nosek, Eric Luis Uhlmann, Raphael Silberzan, Amy Sommer, Kaisa Snellman, David Robinson, Raphael Silberzahn, and I have just launched a second crowdsourcing data analysis project following the success of the first one. In the crowdsourcing analytics approach, multiple independent analysts are recruited to test the same hypothesis on the same data set […] The post Crowdsourcing Data Analysis 2: Gender, Status, and Science appeared first on Statistical […]

November 11, 2014

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2:47 PM | The history of MRP highlights some differences between political science and epidemiology
Responding to a comment from Thomas Lumley (who asked why MRP estimates often seem to appear without any standard errors), I wrote: In political science, MRP always seems accompanied by uncertainty estimates. However, when lots of things are being displayed at once, it’s not always easy to show uncertainty, and in many cases I simply […] The post The history of MRP highlights some differences between political science and epidemiology appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
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9:22 AM | ToDiGRA special issue: Physical and Digital in Games and Play
Spreading the word: we have now published the special issue of DiGRA “Transactions” journal (ToDiGRA), on Physical and Digital in Games and Play, many thanks to authors, reviewers and specially to my co-editors Anu Seisto and Katriina Heljakka: Vol 1, … Continue reading →

November 10, 2014

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7:34 PM | What Matters to Women Looking for Egg Donors?
As the use of egg donors becomes more widespread, a recent study finds, women are no longer trying to hide the fact that their babies come from donor eggs by working hard to find donors who are physically or genetically similar to them. Instead, the researchers say, recipients tend to look for other qualities, such as intelligence and athletic ability, read more
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2:21 PM | Illegal Business Controls America
The other day I wrote: After encountering the Chicago-cops example I was going to retitle this post, “The psych department’s just another crew” in homage to the line, “The police department’s just another crew” from the rap, “Who Protects Us From You.” But, just to check, I googled that KRS-One rap and it turns out […] The post Illegal Business Controls America appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Illegal Business Controls America Tues: The history of MRP highlights some differences between political science and epidemiology Wed: “Patchwriting” is a Wegmanesque abomination but maybe there’s something similar that could be helpful? Thurs: If you do an experiment with 700,000 participants, you’ll (a) have no problem with statistical significance, (b) get to call it […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, […]

November 09, 2014

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2:20 PM | “Differences Between Econometrics and Statistics” (my talk this Monday at the University of Pennsylvania econ dept)
Differences Between Econometrics and Statistics:  that’s the title of the talk I’ll be giving at the econometrics workshop at noon on Monday. At 4pm in the same place, I’ll be speaking on Stan. And here are some things for people to read: For “Differences between econometrics and statistics”: Everyone’s trading bias for variance at some […] The post “Differences Between Econometrics and Statistics” (my talk this Monday at the […]

November 08, 2014

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4:09 PM | Mit Ultraschall gegen Schlaganfall und mehr – Falling Walls Lab
Mein Vater hatte Schlaganfälle. Zeitlich versetzt. Immer wieder. Bis zum ulitmativen. Vielleicht hätte ihm der Therapieansatz geholfen, den Aliona Nacu heute beim Falling Walls Lab vorstellte. Die Forscherin von der Universität Bergen in Norwegen präsentierte den Einsatz von Ultraschall um die Gerinnsel aufzulösen, welche die Arterien im Falle eines ischämischen Infarkts verstopfen. Sie berichtete, dass diese Therapie in Kombination mit herkömmlicher zu […]
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2:16 PM | Why I’m not posting on this topic
A colleague writes: Following our recent ** article (on which you commented favourably . . .), are you maybe planning a blog post on this? Both ** and ** have extensively analysed the statistical methods used in the original article, and found them wanting. I would really like to see the ** article retracted, as […] The post Why I’m not posting on this topic appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

November 07, 2014

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2:44 PM | Scientists behaving badly
By “badly,” I don’t just mean unethically or immorally; I’m also including examples in this the individual scientists are not clearly violating any ethical rules but are acting in a way as to degrade, rather than increase, our understanding of the world. In the latter case I include examples such as the senders of the […] The post Scientists behaving badly appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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12:18 PM | More of us can look forward to becoming nonagenarians
Just a couple of decades ago, nonagenarians were a rarity. Now, however, there are about 45,000 people in their nineties in Finland, and they are living proof that longevity has...
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9:30 AM | Newsblast Volume 4 Issue 11
#NetworkScience In the current issue of the Network Science Center Newsblast Dr. John James discusses another aspect of the information sharing problem. He discusses Bitcoin’s solution to the ‘double spend’ or ‘Byzantine Generals’ problem and how this solution might be applied in … Continue reading →

November 06, 2014

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5:32 PM | Debate over kidney transplant stats?
Dan Walter writes: A few years ago, in a post about Baysian statistics, you referred to a book that I wrote about a study on catheter ablation for atrial fibrillation: The Chorus of Ablationists I am writing a story on the transplant industry and am wondering about a widely cited article concerning the long term health effects of […] The post Debate over kidney transplant stats? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:18 AM | Just imagine if Ed Wegman got his hands on this program—it could do wonders for his research productivity!
Brendan Nyhan writes: I’d love to see you put some data in here that you know well and evaluate how the site handles it. The webpage in question says: Upload a data set, and the automatic statistician will attempt to describe the final column of your data in terms of the rest of the data. […] The post Just imagine if Ed Wegman got his hands on this program—it could do wonders for his research productivity! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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