Posts

February 27, 2015

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5:00 PM | William Shakespeare (1) vs. Karl Marx
For yesterday‘s winner, I’ll follow the reasoning of Manuel in comments: Popper. We would learn more from falsifying the hypothesis that Popper’s talk is boring than what we would learn from falsifying the hypothesis that Richard Pryor’s talk is uninteresting. And today we have the consensus choice for greatest writer vs. the notorious political philosopher. […] The post William Shakespeare (1) vs. Karl Marx appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
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2:01 PM | “The harm done by tests of significance” (article from 1994 in the journal, “Accident Analysis and Prevention”)
Ezra Hauer writes: In your January 2013 Commentary (Epidemiology) you say that “…misunderstanding persists even in high-stakes settings.” Attached is an older paper illustrating some such. “It is like trying to sink a battleship by firing lead shot at it for a long time”—well put! The post “The harm done by tests of significance” (article from 1994 in the journal, “Accident Analysis and Prevention”) appeared first on Statistical […]

February 26, 2015

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8:11 PM | SPSP 2015: The world thinks that atheists are immoral
At the self and identity pre-conference this morning Will Gervais presented a series of studies (available open access right here) suggesting that people seem to automatically associate atheism with a lack of moral character.Read More->
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6:25 PM | SPSP 2015: The Contagious Spread of Affect
I was fortunate to attend the first session of the emotion pre-conference this morning and had a chance to hear about some amazing research conducted by Wendy Mendes (my post-doc advisor), Sara Waters, and Tessa West. The research examined the extent that affective states are transmitted between individuals.The researchers reasoned that social living organisms are widely characterized by synchronous actions and states--with humans groups being particularly likely to synchronize their emotions […]
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5:00 PM | Richard Pryor (1) vs. Karl Popper
The top-seeded comedian vs. an unseeded philosopher. Pryor would be much more entertaining, that’s for sure (“Arizona State Penitentiary population: 80 percent black people. But there are no black people in Arizona!”). But Karl Popper laid out the philosophy that is the foundation for modern science. His talk, even if it is dry, might ultimately […] The post Richard Pryor (1) vs. Karl Popper appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:18 PM | SPSP 2015: We're here in Long Beach!
It's been a few months since I've posted on this blog, and I'm planning to change that over the next several days: It is time for the annual convention of the Society for Personality and Social Psychology and we've got three full days packed with social-personality content to share with the blogosphere. I'll be writing a few short posts over the course of the conference--but before I do I want to point out where you can find some of the current and former bloggers on this website, right here at […]
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2:02 PM | Psych journal bans significance tests; stat blogger inundated with emails
OK, it’s been a busy email day. From Brandon Nakawaki: I know your blog is perpetually backlogged by a few months, but I thought I’d forward this to you in case it hadn’t hit your inbox yet. A journal called Basic and Applied Social Psychology is banning null hypothesis significance testing in favor of descriptive […] The post Psych journal bans significance tests; stat blogger inundated with emails appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]

February 25, 2015

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5:00 PM | Abraham (4) vs. Jane Austen
Yesterday’s is a super-tough call. I’d much rather hear Stewart Lee than Aristotle. I read one of Lee’s books, and he’s a fascinating explicator of performance. Lee gives off a charming David Owen vibe—Phil, you know what I’m saying here—he’s an everyman, nothing special, he’s just been thinking really hard lately and wants to share […] The post Abraham (4) vs. Jane Austen appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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2:34 PM | The axes are labeled but I don’t know what the dots represent.
John Sukup writes: I came across a chart recently posted by Boston Consulting Group on LinkedIn and wondered what your take on it was. To me, it seems to fall into the “suspicious” category but thought you may have a different opinion. I replied that this one baffles me cos I don’t know what the […] The post The axes are labeled but I don’t know what the dots represent. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:30 PM | Examining Evidence for Leaderboards and Learning
As I described in my last post, gamification is often misused and abused, applied in ways and in situations where it is unlikely to do much good. When we deploy new learning technologies, the ultimate goal of that change should always be clear, first and foremost. So how do you actually go about setting that sort of […]The post Examining Evidence for Leaderboards and Learning appeared first on NeoAcademic.Related articles from NeoAcademic:Psychological Theory and Gamification […]

Landers, R. & Landers, A. (2015). An Empirical Test of the Theory of Gamified Learning: The Effect of Leaderboards on Time-on-Task and Academic Performance, Simulation & Gaming, DOI: 10.1177/1046878114563662

Citation
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1:25 AM | Summing it Up: Meta-synthesis of quasi-experimental and qualitative clinical research
When I first started this blog in 2011 (in a different format), I promised exegesis of methodologies as well as critical thinking about topics in epidemiology. I have not kept my promise in recent months, but intend to correct that now with some thoughts about conducting structured literature reviews or even meta-analysis with non-optimal data.…
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12:10 AM | Mo’ Farms, Mo’ (Plague) Problems
The plague is back, and this time it’s not thanks to far-voyaging ships or caravans traversing some distant trade routes, but to corn. This disease, caused by one of man’s oldest bacterial foes, Yersinia pestis, and spread by flea-infested rodents, is often overlooked in modern times in favor of more headline-grabbing epidemics like Ebola, HIV, and antibiotic-resistant STDs. But the plague has always kept close quarters with mankind and continues to surprise us with its […]

February 24, 2015

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10:59 PM | 24 Feb 2015: Lingerie, chocolate, and shopping
The psychology of attraction meets consumer psychology: how female fertility influences desire for variety in products. And look but don’t touch: observing male behaviour in lingerie stores.Download the MP3Participate in my research!The psychology of fail videos (women only)How do you help others?More chocolate is always better than less chocolate. But new research shows that women are more interested in getting a good variety of chocolate (and other consumer products) when they're most […]
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5:00 PM | Aristotle (3) vs. Stewart Lee
Yesterday‘s winner is a tough one. Really, these two guys could’ve met in the final. Some arguments in the comments in favor of Freud: From Huw, “he has the smirks, knowing looks, and barely missed sidelong glances.” And Seth points out the statistical connection: “Some people might say that theory is getting lost in the […] The post Aristotle (3) vs. Stewart Lee appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:31 PM | Upcoming Stan-related talks
If you’re in NYC or Sidney, there are some Stan-related talks in the next few weeks.   New York 25 February. Jonah Gabry: shinyStan: a graphical user interface for exploring Bayesian models after MCMC. Register Now: New York Open Statistical Programming Meetup. 12 March. Rob Trangucci: #5: Non-centered parameterization aka the “Matt trick.” Register Now: Stan […] The post Upcoming Stan-related talks appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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2:49 PM | “A small but growing collection of studies suggest X” . . . huh?
Lee Beck writes: I’m curious if you have any thoughts on the statistical meaning of sentences like “a small but growing collection of studies suggest [X].” That exact wording comes from this piece in the New Yorker, but I think it’s the sort of expression you often see in science journalism (“small but mounting”, “small […] The post “A small but growing collection of studies suggest X” . . . huh? appeared first on Statistical […]

February 23, 2015

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5:00 PM | Martin Luther King (2) vs. Sigmund Freud
We didn’t get any great comments yesterday, so I’ll have to go with PKD on the grounds that he was the presumptive favorite, and nobody made any good case otherwise. And today we have the second seed among the Religious Leaders vs. an unseeded entry in the Founders of Religions category. Truly a classic matchup. […] The post Martin Luther King (2) vs. Sigmund Freud appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:00 PM | “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. [My talk tomorrow in the Princeton economics department]
The talk is tomorrow, Tues 24 Feb, 2:40-4:00pm in 200 Fisher Hall: “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. Andrew Gelman, Department of Statistics and Department of Political Science, Columbia University Minimizing bias is the traditional first goal of econometrics. In many cases, though, the […] The post “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. [My talk tomorrow […]
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2:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: “Unbiasedness”: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means. [My talk tomorrow in the Princeton economics department] Martin Luther King (2) vs. Sigmund Freud Tues: “A small but growing collection of studies suggest X” . . . huh? Aristotle (3) vs. Stewart Lee Wed: The axes […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

February 22, 2015

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5:00 PM | Philip K. Dick (2) vs. Jean Baudrillard
For yesterday, I was gonna go with Vincent, based on X’s comment: In addition to his unique painting style and very special life, van Gogh was highly literate, as shown through the 844 letters from him that are available today. X also made a missing-body-part joke, which I generally don’t think is so cool but, […] The post Philip K. Dick (2) vs. Jean Baudrillard appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:32 PM | “Academics should be made accountable for exaggerations in press releases about their own work”
Fernando Martel Garcia points me to this news article by Ben Goldacre: For anyone with medical training, mainstream media coverage of science can be an uncomfortable read. It is common to find correlational findings misrepresented as denoting causation, for example, or findings in animal studies confidently exaggerated to make claims about treatment for humans. But […] The post “Academics should be made accountable for exaggerations in press releases about their own work” […]

February 21, 2015

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5:00 PM | Vincent van Gogh (3) vs. Grandma Moses
In yesterday‘s battle of the religions, the strongest argument against Mother Teresa was given by Paul, who related that she was friends with all sorts of nasty politicians and that she’s been accused of spending money that came from questionable sources. But if that’s all you can say about her, it won’t cut much ice […] The post Vincent van Gogh (3) vs. Grandma Moses appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:30 PM | Bayes and doomsday
Ben O’Neill writes: I am a fellow Bayesian statistician at the University of New South Wales (Australia).  I have enjoyed reading your various books and articles, and enjoyed reading your recent article on The Perceived Absurdity of Bayesian Inference.  However, I disagree with your assertion that the “doomsday argument” is non-Bayesian; I think if you read […] The post Bayes and doomsday appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]

February 20, 2015

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9:45 PM | The bracket so far
Thanks to the Excel stylings of Paul Davidson: Our competition is (approximately) 1/4 done! And I’ve been thinking about possible categories for next year’s tourney: New Jersey politicians Articulate athletes Plagiarists People named Greg or Gregg Vladimir Nabokov and people connected to him . . . Ummm, we need 3 more categories. Any suggestions? Real […] The post The bracket so far appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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5:00 PM | Mother Teresa (4) vs. Sun Myung Moon
For yesterday, I’ll have to go with Gandhi, the original badass of nonviolence. Zbicyclist found this quote, “He propagated that . . . we should take only that which is required, in minimum quantity. We should not eat to appease our taste buds,” which implies that Gandhi shouldn’t pick the caterer—but that’s not an issue, […] The post Mother Teresa (4) vs. Sun Myung Moon appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:09 PM | Statistical Significance – Significant Problem?
John Carlin, who’s collaborated on some of my recent work on Type S and Type M errors, prepared this presentation for a clinical audience. It might be of interest to some of you. The ideas and some of the examples should be familiar to regular readers of this blog, but it could be useful to […] The post Statistical Significance – Significant Problem? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:37 PM | Schools need to move with the times
The world-class results achieved by Finnish pupils in the OECD’s Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) study have been based on successful actions in the past. Schools cannot rest on...

February 19, 2015

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5:00 PM | Mohandas Gandhi (1) vs. Stanley Kubrick
Yesterday‘s competition is a toughie. If it were up to me, I think I’d have to go with Jesus. Here’s why: I’d come into the seminar with lots of resistance, like, c’mon, Jesus, I totally don’t believe the hype. As Hernan put it in comments: Jesus spoke in parables to avoid committing to a specific […] The post Mohandas Gandhi (1) vs. Stanley Kubrick appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:08 PM | Another example of why centering predictors can be good idea
Andrew Dolman writes: Just in case you need another example of why it is important to consider what the intercepts in a model represent, here is a short comment I [Dolman] just got published correcting a misinterpretation of a simple linear model, that would not have happened if they had centered their predictor around a […] The post Another example of why centering predictors can be good idea appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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2:28 AM | Is there joy in missing out?
Researchers talk about our attachment to social media in terms of the fear of missing out (FOMO). We can’t look away from our mobile devices because we might miss the possibility to make or... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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