Posts

October 22, 2014

+
12:51 PM | Universal Social Rules Underlie Languages
© James Yang The September/October issue of Scientific American MIND features an article written by me and N.J. Enfield entitled “Universal Social Rules Underlie Languages”. We review recent research on conversation across cultures, including work on turn-taking, timing, and other-initiated repair. Scientific American … Continue reading →
+
8:50 AM | Prostate cancer screening saves lives – but results in overdiagnosis
New research confirms that screening men for prostate cancer prevents cancer deaths. In a 13-year follow up study, prostate cancer mortality rates were around 20 per cent lower among men...

October 21, 2014

+
1:18 PM | Try a spaghetti plot
Joe Simmons writes: I asked MTurk NFL fans to consider an NFL game in which the favorite was expected to beat the underdog by 7 points in a full-length game. I elicited their beliefs about sample size in a few different ways (materials .pdf; data .xls). Some were asked to give the probability that the better […] The post Try a spaghetti plot appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 20, 2014

+
2:12 PM | Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them
To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one. The post Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them Tues: Try a spaghetti plot Wed: I ain’t got no watch and you keep asking me what time it is Thurs: Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam Fri: Solution to the helicopter design problem Sat: Solution to the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
9:47 AM | Raw and Uncut 4: The Glow-Worm
Jean Henri Fabre (1823-1915) is considered by many to be the father of modern entomology. Last week I came across an English translation of his “Souvenirs Entomologiques” a series of texts on insects and arachnids. The translation is called “Fabre’s Book of Insects” and was done by Mrs. Rodolph Stawell in 1926. After reading I understand that much of his enduring popularity is due to his manner of writing about the lives of insects in biographical form, which he […]
+
2:38 AM | Does Forgiveness Have a Dark Side?
Forgivenessis widely considered to be a psychologically healthy and morally virtuous approach to coping with victimization. Research suggests that people who forgive more easily are happier and healthierthan those who hold grudges. In addition, forgiveness interventions have been shown to reduce stress reactivity, increase optimism, and facilitate reconciliation with offenders.Read More->

October 19, 2014

+
1:54 PM | “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”
I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: […] The post “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List” appeared first on […]

October 18, 2014

+
1:43 PM | Hoe noem je?
Haynes Goddard writes: Reviewing my notes and books on categorical data analysis, the term “nominal” is widely employed to refer to variables without any natural ordering. I was a language major in UG school and knew that the etymology of nominal is the Latin word nomen (from the Online Etymological Dictionary: early 15c., “pertaining to […] The post Hoe noem je? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 17, 2014

+
7:24 PM | 6th Workshop on Complex Networks
#NetworkScience See website for more information http://www.complenet.org/
+
1:33 PM | How do companies use Bayesian methods?
Jason May writes: I’m in Northwestern’s Predictive Analytics grad program. I’m working on a project providing Case Studies of how companies use certain analytic processes and want to use Bayesian Analysis as my focus. The problem: I can find tons of work on how one might apply Bayesian Statistics to different industries but very little […] The post How do companies use Bayesian methods? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
+
11:31 AM | Society has an impact on mental health
  Not everyone is suited to modern working life. Traditional unskilled labour is becoming increasingly rare, and modern working life demands that people are active social networkers with new kinds...
+
10:53 AM | The money invested in Youth Guarantee will save benefits costs in the future
“Finland has effectively implemented the EU’s Youth Guarantee,” says EU Commissioner László Andor. “For instance, the time limit in which the guarantee must be put into effect in Finland is...

October 16, 2014

+
5:31 PM | Lecture Slides: How to do a literature review
Lecture I’m giving tomorrow to first-year STS students. If you want to use it, or any element from it, please contact me in advance.Week 3 Doing a research project step 2_literature reviews
+
2:38 PM | Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science
Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which […] The post Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science appeared first on Statistical […]
+
11:56 AM | One Year In Research, Part I: Giving Birth to a Research Project
I have now been at the Department of Science and Technology Studies at University College London for one year.  This is a length of time which traditionally provokes retrospection, so I’m going to do a couple of posts reflecting on … Continue reading →

October 15, 2014

+
8:58 PM | Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto
Statistical communication includes graphing data and fitted models, programming, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students, and combining words and pictures in different ways. The common theme of all these interactions is that we need to consider our statistical tools in the context of our goals. Communication is not just about conveying […] The post Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
+
8:55 PM | My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics
We will study and practice many different aspects of statistical communication, including graphing data and fitted models, programming in Rrrrrrrr, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students and colleagues, and combining words and pictures in different ways. You learn by doing: each week we have two classes that are full of student […] The post My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
+
3:51 PM | The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say
In our recent discussion of publication bias, a commenter link to a recent paper, “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back,” by Abel Brodeur, Mathias Le, Marc Sangnier, Yanos Zylberberg, who point to the notorious overrepresentation in scientific publications of p-values that are just below 0.05 (that is, just barely statistically significant at the conventional level) […] The post The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say appeared first on Statistical […]
+
1:30 PM | Do Interactive Experiences Aid Employee Recruitment?
Many modern organizations try to compete for top talent by adding fancy, interactive experiences to their recruitment process – think of something like a virtual tour.  Such interactive experiences are expensive, but their creators hope that they will attract a higher class of recruit.  New research from Badger, Kaminsky and Behrend[1] in the Journal of Managerial […]The post Do Interactive Experiences Aid Employee Recruitment? appeared first on NeoAcademic.Related […]
+
8:38 AM | How You Feel About People is Related to How You Feel About Cities
You take delight not in a city's seven or seventy wonders, but in the answer it gives to a question of yours. (Calvino, 1978, p. 44).There are numerous structural factors that influence people’s attitudes towards cities, including the city’s architecture, size, infrastructure, transport, crime rates, population density, and quality of housing, to name just a few.  However, as the Italian writer Calvino (1978) alluded to in his book Invisible Cities, these factors may be […]

Rubin, M. & Morrison, T. (2014). Individual Differences in Individualism and Collectivism Predict Ratings of Virtual Cities’ Liveability and Environmental Quality, The Journal of General Psychology, 141 (4) 348-372. DOI: 10.1080/00221309.2014.938721

Citation
+
3:21 AM | What Kinds of Support Are Most Supportive?
[…]

October 14, 2014

+
11:53 PM | I didn’t say that! Part 2
Uh oh, this is getting kinda embarrassing. The Garden of Forking Paths paper, by Eric Loken and myself, just appeared in American Scientist. Here’s our manuscript version (“The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no ‘fishing expedition’ or ‘p-hacking’ and the research hypothesis was posited ahead […] The post I didn’t say that! Part 2 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
+
3:13 PM | In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons
Exhibit A: [2012] Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness 5, 189-211. (Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill, and Masanao Yajima) Exhibit B: The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis […] The post In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) […]
+
1:00 PM | On deck this week
Tues: In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons Wed: The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say Thurs: Buggy-whip update Fri: The inclination to deny all variation Sat: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 13, 2014

+
10:41 PM | An Epidemic of “Maps”
If you are a member of the Facebook, Tumblr, Pintrest, or Iumgr community, you have most likely seen posts like this show up in your feed as of late with […]

October 12, 2014

+
8:47 PM | 10th anniversary of “Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science”
Richard Morey pointed out the other day that this blog is 10 years old! During this time, we’ve had 5688 posts, 48799 comments, and who knows how many readers. On this tenth anniversary, I’d like to thank my collaborators on all the work I’ve blogged, my co-bloggers (“This post is by Phil”), our commenters, Alex […] The post 10th anniversary of “Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, […]
+
3:13 AM | “Illinois chancellor who fired Salaita accused of serial self-plagiarism.”
I came across a couple of stories today that made me wonder how much we can learn from a scholar’s professional misconduct. The first was a review by Kimberle Crenshaw of a book by Joan Biskupic about Supreme Court judge Sonia Sotomayor. Crenshaw makes the interesting point that Sotomayor, like many political appointees of the […] The post “Illinois chancellor who fired Salaita accused of serial self-plagiarism.” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, […]

October 11, 2014

+
5:02 PM | iPhone 6: boring, but must-have?
There have been substantial delays in my advance order for iPhone 6 Plus (apparently Apple underestimated the demand), and I have had some time to reflect on why I want to get the damned thing in the first place. There … Continue reading →
+
1:57 PM | Science tells us that fast food lovers are more likely to marry other fast food lovers
Emma Pierson writes: I’m a statistician working at the genetics company 23andMe before pursuing a master’s in statistics at Oxford on a Rhodes scholarship. I’ve really enjoyed reading your blog, and we’ve been doing some social science research at 23andMe which I thought might be of interest. We have about half a million customers answering […] The post Science tells us that fast food lovers are more likely to marry other fast food lovers appeared first on […]
123
83 Results