Posts

October 24, 2014

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1:14 PM | Solution to the helicopter design problem
See yesterday’s post for background. Here’s the question: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the helicopter, a and b, correspond to the length of certain cuts in the […] The post Solution to the helicopter design problem appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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9:36 AM | The Oscar Pistorius Verdict and Theory of the Mind
On 19 August 2013 Oscar Pistorius was officially charged with the murder of his girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp. The Paralympic champion admitted shooting her on Valentine's Day but denied murder, saying he believed she was an intruder. On 12 September 2014 the judge ruled out murder by dolus eventualis – that is, that Pistorius foresaw his actions in firing four shots into the door could have led to the death of the person behind it but went ahead and fired anyway:... Read more
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7:16 AM | Oppiminen pelissä
[In Finnish, new book on games, playfulness and learning] Vastapaino on julkaissut mielenkiintoisen teoksen Oppiminen pelissä: pelit, pelillisyys ja leikillisyys opetuksessa (toim. Leena Krokfors, Marjaana Kangas & Kaisa Kopisto). Kirjoitin kirjaan seuraavat alkusanat: Oppimisen ja pelaamisen yhteys on toisaalta ikivanha … Continue reading →

October 23, 2014

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9:08 PM | No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that!
The names are changed, but the song remains the same. First verse. There’s an article by a journalist, The odds, continually updated, by F.D. Flam in the NY Times to which Andrew responded in blog form, No, I didn’t say that, by Andrew Gelman, on this blog. Second verse. There’s an article by a journalist, […] The post No, Michael Jordan didn’t say that! appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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8:11 PM | The Trouble with Rivers
To roughly quote Douglas Adams, “The story so far: In the beginning the United States was created and its accompanying Constitution did not provide any kind of framework for local […]
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1:30 PM | How to Write an APA Style Research Paper Introduction [INFOGRAPHIC]
Writing APA-style papers is a tricky business. So to complement my discussion of writing publishable scientific articles, I’ve created an infographic showing some of the major ideas you should consider when writing the introduction to an APA-style research paper. This approach will work well in most social scientific fields, especially Psychology. If you’re writing a […]The post How to Write an APA Style Research Paper Introduction [INFOGRAPHIC] appeared first on […]
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1:07 PM | Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam
In the in-class applied statistics qualifying exam, students had 4 hours to do 6 problems. Here were the 3 problems I submitted: In the helicopter activity, pairs of students design paper ”helicopters” and compete to create the copter that takes longest to reach the ground when dropped from a fixed height. The two parameters of the […] The post Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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12:49 PM | Newsblast Volume 4 Issue 10
#NetworkScience In the current issue of the Network Science Center Newsblast Lynndee Kemmet discusses the Civil Information Sharing (CIS) Project and its research looking at the connection between food insecurity and political instability.  To learn more read the article in this … Continue reading →
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8:57 AM | African ideophones and their contribution to linguistics — workshop at WOCAL8 in Kyoto, Aug 2015
Organisers Dr. Mark Dingemanse (Max Planck Institute, Nijmegen) Prof. Sharon Rose (University of California, San Diego) Description Africa’s linguistic diversity has impacted the study of language in many ways. The articulatory phonetics of the Khoi and San languages prompted methodological innovations in … Continue reading →

October 22, 2014

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7:59 PM | Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs
As usual, you can find everything on the Stan Home Page. Drop us a line on the stan-users group if you have problems with installs or questions about Stan or coding particular models. New Interfaces We’d like to welcome two new interfaces: MatlabStan by Brian Lau, and  Stan.jl (for Julia) by Rob Goedman. The new […] The post Stan 2.5, now with MATLAB, Julia, and ODEs appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:56 PM | Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism
Recently I had a disagreement with Larry Bartels which I think is worth sharing with you. Larry and I took opposite positions on the hot topic of science criticism. To put things in a positive way, Larry was writing about some interesting recent research which I then constructively criticized. To be more negative, Larry was […] The post Sailing between the Scylla of hyping of sexy research and the Charybdis of reflexive skepticism appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, […]
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12:51 PM | Universal Social Rules Underlie Languages
© James Yang The September/October issue of Scientific American MIND features an article written by me and N.J. Enfield entitled “Universal Social Rules Underlie Languages”. We review recent research on conversation across cultures, including work on turn-taking, timing, and other-initiated repair. Scientific American … Continue reading →
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8:50 AM | Prostate cancer screening saves lives – but results in overdiagnosis
New research confirms that screening men for prostate cancer prevents cancer deaths. In a 13-year follow up study, prostate cancer mortality rates were around 20 per cent lower among men...

October 21, 2014

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1:18 PM | Try a spaghetti plot
Joe Simmons writes: I asked MTurk NFL fans to consider an NFL game in which the favorite was expected to beat the underdog by 7 points in a full-length game. I elicited their beliefs about sample size in a few different ways (materials .pdf; data .xls). Some were asked to give the probability that the better […] The post Try a spaghetti plot appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 20, 2014

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2:12 PM | Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them
To the nearest 10%: To the nearest 1%: To the nearest 0.1%: I think the National Weather Service knows what they’re doing on this one. The post Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Three ways to present a probability forecast, and I only like one of them Tues: Try a spaghetti plot Wed: I ain’t got no watch and you keep asking me what time it is Thurs: Some questions from our Ph.D. statistics qualifying exam Fri: Solution to the helicopter design problem Sat: Solution to the […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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9:47 AM | Raw and Uncut 4: The Glow-Worm
Jean Henri Fabre (1823-1915) is considered by many to be the father of modern entomology. Last week I came across an English translation of his “Souvenirs Entomologiques” a series of texts on insects and arachnids. The translation is called “Fabre’s Book of Insects” and was done by Mrs. Rodolph Stawell in 1926. After reading I understand that much of his enduring popularity is due to his manner of writing about the lives of insects in biographical form, which he […]
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2:38 AM | Does Forgiveness Have a Dark Side?
Forgivenessis widely considered to be a psychologically healthy and morally virtuous approach to coping with victimization. Research suggests that people who forgive more easily are happier and healthierthan those who hold grudges. In addition, forgiveness interventions have been shown to reduce stress reactivity, increase optimism, and facilitate reconciliation with offenders.Read More->

October 19, 2014

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1:54 PM | “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”
I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: […] The post “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List” appeared first on […]

October 18, 2014

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1:43 PM | Hoe noem je?
Haynes Goddard writes: Reviewing my notes and books on categorical data analysis, the term “nominal” is widely employed to refer to variables without any natural ordering. I was a language major in UG school and knew that the etymology of nominal is the Latin word nomen (from the Online Etymological Dictionary: early 15c., “pertaining to […] The post Hoe noem je? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

October 17, 2014

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7:24 PM | 6th Workshop on Complex Networks
#NetworkScience See website for more information http://www.complenet.org/
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1:33 PM | How do companies use Bayesian methods?
Jason May writes: I’m in Northwestern’s Predictive Analytics grad program. I’m working on a project providing Case Studies of how companies use certain analytic processes and want to use Bayesian Analysis as my focus. The problem: I can find tons of work on how one might apply Bayesian Statistics to different industries but very little […] The post How do companies use Bayesian methods? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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11:31 AM | Society has an impact on mental health
  Not everyone is suited to modern working life. Traditional unskilled labour is becoming increasingly rare, and modern working life demands that people are active social networkers with new kinds...
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10:53 AM | The money invested in Youth Guarantee will save benefits costs in the future
“Finland has effectively implemented the EU’s Youth Guarantee,” says EU Commissioner László Andor. “For instance, the time limit in which the guarantee must be put into effect in Finland is...

October 16, 2014

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5:31 PM | Lecture Slides: How to do a literature review
Lecture I’m giving tomorrow to first-year STS students. If you want to use it, or any element from it, please contact me in advance.Week 3 Doing a research project step 2_literature reviews
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2:38 PM | Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science
Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which […] The post Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science appeared first on Statistical […]
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11:56 AM | One Year In Research, Part I: Giving Birth to a Research Project
I have now been at the Department of Science and Technology Studies at University College London for one year.  This is a length of time which traditionally provokes retrospection, so I’m going to do a couple of posts reflecting on … Continue reading →

October 15, 2014

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8:58 PM | Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto
Statistical communication includes graphing data and fitted models, programming, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students, and combining words and pictures in different ways. The common theme of all these interactions is that we need to consider our statistical tools in the context of our goals. Communication is not just about conveying […] The post Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
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8:55 PM | My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics
We will study and practice many different aspects of statistical communication, including graphing data and fitted models, programming in Rrrrrrrr, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students and colleagues, and combining words and pictures in different ways. You learn by doing: each week we have two classes that are full of student […] The post My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
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3:51 PM | The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say
In our recent discussion of publication bias, a commenter link to a recent paper, “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back,” by Abel Brodeur, Mathias Le, Marc Sangnier, Yanos Zylberberg, who point to the notorious overrepresentation in scientific publications of p-values that are just below 0.05 (that is, just barely statistically significant at the conventional level) […] The post The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say appeared first on Statistical […]
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