Posts

October 01, 2014

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3:20 PM | Keynote on Pervasive Play & Social Media
This Friday I have been invited to present the keynote in the Social Media in Education seminar, organised by TAOKK & TAMK in Tampere. My title is “Mobile and Pervasive Play – the New Potentials for Communication, Information Seeking and … Continue reading →
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3:00 AM | The Fluke That Thwarted an Invasion
Microbes are the omnipresent yet frequently unacknowledged adversary on the battlefield. Though microscopic in size, their very macroscopic effects can decimate armies, foil the best planned war initiatives, and change the course of history. In one of the greatest military debacles in history, Napoleon’s invasion of Russia in 1812 failed on account of body lice […]The post The Fluke That Thwarted an Invasion appeared first on Body Horrors.

September 30, 2014

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10:30 AM | Zbikowski on music and social interaction
Instead of probing the cultural or historical context for musical utterances, or the complex networks of social interaction that give rise to musical behavior, music theory continues to focus on details of musical discourse with an obsessiveness that is both … Continue reading →
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8:05 AM | Imatra
I will be talking today about “Playfulness and the Transformation of Learning” (“Pelillisyys, leikillisyys ja oppimisen muodonmuutos”) in teacher education event in Imatra, Eastern Finland. There will be also an opportunity to provide some demonstrations on the most popular digital … Continue reading →
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6:43 AM | CFP: DiGRA 2015
Call for papers: DiGRA 2015 Diversity of play: Games – Cultures – Identities 14-17 May 2015, Lüneburg, Germany www.digra2015.org Video game culture has had a self-image of being a distinct cultural form united by participants identifying themselves as ‘gamers’ for many years. Variations in this identity … Continue reading →
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5:11 AM | The Menace that is Sprawl
The following table is important. This table shows the largest continual migration pattern in American history, and if the data is to be believed, it shows no sign of stopping. […]

September 27, 2014

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10:20 PM | June 5, 1981. Pneumocystis Pneumonia. Los Angeles.
In the period October 1980-May 1981, 5 young men, all active homosexuals, were treated for biopsy-confirmed Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia at 3 different hospitals in Los Angeles, California. Two of the patients died. All 5 patients had laboratory-confirmed previous or current cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection and candidal mucosal infection. Case reports of these patients follow. In honor of National […]The post June 5, 1981. Pneumocystis Pneumonia. Los Angeles. appeared first on […]
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1:13 PM | “An exact fishy test”
Macartan Humphreys supplied this amusing demo. Just click on the link and try it—it’s fun! Here’s an example: I came up with 10 random numbers: > round(.5+runif(10)*100) [1] 56 23 70 83 29 74 23 91 25 89 and entered them into Macartan’s app, which promptly responded: Unbelievable! You chose the numbers 56 23 70 […] The post “An exact fishy test” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 26, 2014

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1:22 PM | MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum
A couple years ago I gave a talk at West Point. It was fun. The students are all undergraduates, and most of the instructors were just doing the job for two years or so between other assignments. The permanent faculty were focused on teaching and organizing the curriculum. As part of my visit I sat […] The post MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 25, 2014

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9:51 PM | Mathe als Alltagsrätsel – Das Tierheimspiel
Stellen Sie sich vor, Sie sind LeiterIn eines Tierheims. Sie kennen Ihre Gäste sehr gut; deren Vorlieben und Abneigung. Die einen mögen sich, anderen stellt es die Haare und Federn nur so auf, wenn sie sich begegnen. Fakt ist: alle Käfige liegen aneinandergereiht. Ob Hund, Katz, Schildkröte, Schaf, Kuh, Pferd, Hase oder Maus – Sie sollen für jeden die richtigen Nachbarn finden. Es liegt an Ihnen, ob im Heim Käfig an Käfig gekläfft und gefaucht wird; […]
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8:55 PM | Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height
I’d like to see a Stan implementation of the analysis presented in this comment by Gary from a year and a half ago. The post Free Stan T-shirt to the first “little twerp” who does a (good) Bayesian analysis of Jon Lee Anderson’s height appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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7:56 PM | “Derek Jeter was OK”
Tom Scocca files a bizarrely sane column summarizing the famous shortstop’s accomplishments: Derek Jeter was an OK ballplayer. He was pretty good at playing baseball, overall, and he did it for a pretty long time. . . . You have to be good at baseball to last 20 seasons in the major leagues. . . […] The post “Derek Jeter was OK” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:30 PM | Grad School: Online I/O Psychology Master’s and PhD Program List
Grad School Series: Applying to Graduate School in Industrial/Organizational Psychology Starting Sophomore Year: Should I get a Ph.D. or Master’s? | How to Get Research Experience Starting Junior Year: Preparing for the GRE | Getting Recommendations Starting Senior Year: Where to Apply | Traditional vs. Online Degrees | Personal Statements Interviews/Visits: Preparing for Interviews | Going to Interviews In Graduate […]
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1:24 PM | Waic for time series
Helen Steingroever writes: I’m currently working on a model comparison paper using WAIC, and would like to ask you the following question about the WAIC computation: I have data of one participant that consist of 100 sequential choices (you can think of these data as being a time series). I want to compute the WAIC […] The post Waic for time series appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 24, 2014

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2:55 PM | What do you really need on this earth?
Natural conversations are a great source of data for all sorts of linguistic research. Linguists and conversation analysts usually study them primarily for their structure, not their content. This is not out of disinterest, but out of empirical prudence. The … Continue reading →
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1:14 PM | Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic]
This one is like shooting fish in a barrel but sometimes the job just has to be done. . . . The paper is by Daryl Bem, Patrizio Tressoldi, Thomas Rabeyron, and Michael Duggan, it’s called “Feeling the Future: A Meta-Analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events,” and it begins […] The post Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic] appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]

September 23, 2014

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1:35 PM | Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes
We had a discussion last month on the sister blog regarding the effects of subliminal messages on political attitudes.  It started with a Larry Bartels post entitled “Here’s how a cartoon smiley face punched a big hole in democratic theory,” with the subtitle, “Fleeting exposure to ‘irrelevant stimuli’ powerfully shapes our assessments of policy arguments,” discussing the […] The post Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim […]
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6:22 AM | A Cwinye Leng On The Ebola Frontline: The Heroes of Lacor
Up until this year, the largest Ebola outbreak the world had witnessed occurred between 8 October 2000 and 16 January 2001 in Uganda, centered around the town of Gulu. Gulu is largest city of northern Uganda. It is located approximately 340 km north of Kampala, Uganda’s capital, and takes between 5 and 6 hours to reach by bus. It has a population of roughly 155,000 inhabitants. The Nilotic Luo-speaking Acholi people are the main inhabitants of Gulu (80%). The private... Read more

September 22, 2014

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9:14 PM | “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry”
David Rothschild (coauthor of the Xbox study, the Mythical Swing Voter paper, and of course the notorious Aapor note) will be speaking Friday 10 Oct in the Economics and Big Data meetup in NYC. His title: “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry: information aggregation using non-representative polling data.” Should be fun! P.P.S. […] The post “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry” appeared first on Statistical […]
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3:33 PM | Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen
A few weeks ago the following came in the email: Dear Professor Gelman, I am writing you because I am a prospective doctoral student with considerable interest in your research. My name is Xian Zhao, but you can call me by my English name Alex, a student from China. My plan is to apply to […] The post Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen Tues: Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes Wed: Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic] Thurs: Waic for time series Fri: MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum Sat: “An […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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9:21 AM | I play snooker, therefore I am
A researcher of consciousness delves deep into his own mind. What can you see at the moment? What can you hear, and what can you smell and taste? If you...

September 21, 2014

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5:28 PM | Chili peppers and avanto
My new pet theory is that avantouinti (literally “hole-in-the-ice-swimming”) and love of chili peppers are somehow related. At least here in Tampere I can find people who do both: go out in extreme cold, and jump to the lake, and eat … Continue reading →
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1:31 PM | I can’t think of a good title for this one.
Andrew Lee writes: I recently read in the MIT Technology Review about some researchers claiming to remove “bias” from the wisdom of crowds by focusing on those more “confident” in their views. I [Lee] was puzzled by this result/claim because I always thought that people who (1) are more willing to reassess their priors and […] The post I can’t think of a good title for this one. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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3:11 AM | Why HAL 9000 is not a Villain
HAL 9000 is the primary antagonist of the science fiction movie 2001: A Space Odyssey. HAL (Heuristically programmed ALgorithmic computer) is a board computer that controls the systems of the Discovery One spacecraft and interacts with the ship's astronaut crew. HAL's physical form is not depicted, though it is visually represented as a red television camera eye located on equipment panels throughout the ship. In the film, astronauts David Bowman and Frank Poole consider disconnecting HAL's […]

September 20, 2014

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1:04 PM | Estimating discontinuity in slope of a response function
Peter Ganong sends me a new paper (coauthored with Simon Jager) on the “regression kink design.” Ganong writes: The method is a close cousin of regression discontinuity and has gotten a lot of traction recently among economists, with over 20 papers in the past few years, though less among statisticians. We propose a simple placebo […] The post Estimating discontinuity in slope of a response function appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

September 19, 2014

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5:26 PM | Why did Pirates Fly the Jolly Roger?
The “pirate brand” has long been tied to the skull and crossbones—the Jolly Roger—as a symbol of terror on the high seas. The Times hails the ominous design as a magnificent exercise in... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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5:26 PM | Why did Pirates Fly the Jolly Roger?
The “pirate brand” has long been tied to the skull and crossbones—the Jolly Roger—as a symbol of terror on the high seas. The Times hails the ominous design as a magnificent exercise in... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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1:02 PM | What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Richard Tol: They all made foolish, embarrassing errors that would never have happened had they been using R Markdown
Rachel Cunliffe shares this delight: Had the CNN team used an integrated statistical analysis and display system such as R Markdown, nobody would’ve needed to type in the numbers by hand, and the above embarrassment never would’ve occurred. And CNN should be embarrassed about this: it’s much worse than a simple typo, as it indicates […] The post What does CNN have in common with Carmen Reinhart, Kenneth Rogoff, and Richard Tol: They all made foolish, embarrassing […]

September 18, 2014

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5:30 PM | Shamer shaming
This post is by Phil Price. I can’t recall when I first saw “shaming” used in its currently popular sense. I remember noting “slut shaming” and “fat shaming” but did they first become popular two years ago? Three? At any rate, “shaming” is now everywhere…and evidently it’s a very bad thing. When I first saw […] The post Shamer shaming appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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