# Posts

### October 19, 2014

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5:56 PM | Pippo e l'arte moderna

da Topolino e il ladro di quadri, dall'edizione uscita per il Tascabilone #8

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3:24 PM | Links for October 19

John Cook spoke at KeenCon on Bayesian statistics as a way to integrate intuition and data. A fantasy sports wizard’s winning formula, from Brad Reagan at the Wall Street Journal. Via Hacker News. From Dan Egan of Betterment, It’s About Time in the Market, Not Market Timing, an analysis of the distribution of returns based […]

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1:54 PM | “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List”

I received the following email from the Social Science Research Network, which is a (legitimate) preprint server for research papers: Dear Andrew Gelman: Your paper, “WHY HIGH-ORDER POLYNOMIALS SHOULD NOT BE USED IN REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY DESIGNS”, was recently listed on SSRN’s Top Ten download list for: PSN: Econometrics, Polimetrics, & Statistics (Topic) and Political Methods: […]
The post “Your Paper Makes SSRN Top Ten List” appeared first on
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12:31 PM | Aunt Pythia’s advice

Quick, get on the bus! Hurry! Aunt Pythia is gonna be super fast this morning because she’s got crepes to make and apples to pick. Are you ready? Belts buckled? OK great, let’s do this. And afterwards: please think of something to ask Aunt Pythia at the bottom of the page! By the way, if […]

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12:37 AM | Hiatus

Hiatus
Hi everyone. You probably haven’t heard from me in a while. This is because I have been completely overwhelmed by class work this semester, which has prevented me from doing the things I want to do, like blogging and doing … Continue reading →
The post Hiatus appeared first on The Physics Mill.

### October 18, 2014

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10:14 PM | a week in Warwick

This past week in Warwick has been quite enjoyable and profitable, from staying once again in a math house, to taking advantage of the new bike, to having several long discussions on several prospective and exciting projects, to meeting with some of the new postdocs and visitors, to attending Tony O’Hagan’s talk on “wrong models”. […]

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9:32 PM | Hideout

Ad attirarmi sono stati innanzitutto i disegni: precisi e dettagliati, giocano moltissimo con i bianchi e i neri. Sono infatti opportunamente luminosi nelle scene cittadine, le più tranquille, e sono pesantemente bui nelle scene ambientate nel bosco o nella prigione sotterranea dove si trovano i protagonisti della vicenda, una coppia di giovani in crisi coniugale alla ricerca, apparentemente, di una soluzione ai loro problemi.In un fumetto dell'orrore, ad ogni modo, la parte grafica ha
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6:54 PM | FINAL CFP and *EXTENDED DEADLINE*: SoTFoM II 'Competing Foundations?', 12-13 January 2015, London.

The focus of this conference is on different approaches to the foundations of mathematics. The interaction between set-theoretic and category-theoretic foundations has had significant philosophical impact, and represents a shift in attitudes towards the philosophy of mathematics. This conference will bring together leading scholars in these areas to showcase contemporary philosophical research on different approaches to the foundations of mathematics. To accomplish this, the conference has […]

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1:43 PM | Hoe noem je?

Haynes Goddard writes: Reviewing my notes and books on categorical data analysis, the term “nominal” is widely employed to refer to variables without any natural ordering. I was a language major in UG school and knew that the etymology of nominal is the Latin word nomen (from the Online Etymological Dictionary: early 15c., “pertaining to […]
The post Hoe noem je? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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12:11 PM | Experts vs Professionals

Working with professionals can be a joy. Not only can they solve your problem, they may help you see what problem you should solve. I’ve had several instances lately when I hired a pro to do something I’d attempted myself. In each case I was very pleased and wondered why I hadn’t done this sooner. […]

### October 17, 2014

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10:14 PM | art brut

Filed under: Kids, pictures, Travel Tagged: Barbamama, Barbapapa, bicycle, mountain bike, Paris

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9:09 PM | I macachi del giappone

Vi parlerò di due isole, Kojima, la più grande, e Torishima, per metà nascosta dietro l'altra. Entrambe ospitano branchi di macachi selvatici. Ci fu un tempo in cui l'intera isola di Kyushu pullulava di queste scimmie, tuttavia in seguito all'invasione dell'uomo ne sono rimasti solo pochi gruppi sporadici, perlopiù su isolette remote come queste. Le scimmie locali sono le meno influenzate dall'uomo e, in quanto tali, oggetto di studi approfonditi da parte dei
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7:37 PM | Flutter: Butterfly Sanctuary

I know that most of this month, so far, was more about the Mathematicians’ Event and I believe sometimes it is to much, even if I love this event a lot. So I decided to do something completely new today: … Continue reading →

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Yet more evidence that the NSA wants to make it impossible to communicate privately.

Editor's Pick

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A very refreshing email from a PhD candidate from abroad: “Franchement j’ai pas lu encore vos papiers en détails, mais j’apprécie vos axes de recherche et j’aimerai bien en faire autant avec votre collaboration, bien sûr. Actuellement, je suis à la recherche d’un sujet de thèse et c’est pour cela que je vous écris. Je […]

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2:09 PM | 'Competing Foundations?' Conference

FINAL CFP and EXTENDED DEADLINE: SoTFoM II `Competing Foundations?', 12-13 January 2015, London. The focus of this conference is on different approaches to the foundations of mathematics. The interaction between set-theoretic and category-theoretic foundations has had significant philosophical impact, and...

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1:33 PM | How do companies use Bayesian methods?

Jason May writes: I’m in Northwestern’s Predictive Analytics grad program. I’m working on a project providing Case Studies of how companies use certain analytic processes and want to use Bayesian Analysis as my focus. The problem: I can find tons of work on how one might apply Bayesian Statistics to different industries but very little […]
The post How do companies use Bayesian methods? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Thanks to Artem Kaznatcheev, I learned yesterday about the recent work of Anthony Tockar in exploring the field of anonymization and deanonymization of datasets. Specifically, he looked at the 2013 cab rides in New York City, which was provided under a FOIL request, and he stalked celebrities Bradley Cooper and Jessica Alba (and discovered that neither of them […]

### October 16, 2014

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10:14 PM | insufficient statistics for ABC model choice

[Here is a revised version of my comments on the paper by Julien Stoehr, Pierre Pudlo, and Lionel Cucala, now to appear [both paper and comments] in Statistics and Computing special MCMSki 4 issue.] Approximate Bayesian computation techniques are 2000’s successors of MCMC methods as handling new models where MCMC algorithms are at a loss, […]

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Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which […]
The post Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science appeared first on Statistical
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11:28 AM | Bad Paper by Jake Halpern

Yesterday I finished Jake Halpern’s new book, Bad Paper: Chasing Debt From Wall Street To The Underground. It’s an interesting series of close-up descriptions of the people who have been buying and selling revolving debt since the credit crisis, as well as the actual business of debt collecting. He talks about the very real problem, […]

### October 15, 2014

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This paper by Weixuan Zhu, Juan Miguel Marín [from Carlos III in Madrid, not to be confused with Jean-Michel Marin, from Montpellier!], and Fabrizio Leisen proposes an alternative to our 2013 PNAS paper with Kerrie Mengersen and Pierre Pudlo on empirical likelihood ABC, or BCel. The alternative is based on Davison, Hinkley and Worton’s (1992) […]

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9:17 PM | Un sorriso

Soddisfazioni: quando torni a casa con il sorriso di un ragazzo che, nonostante la tarda sera, sorride per essere riuscito a trovare mcm ed MCD. Tutto il resto e' un contorno di cui forse potremmo anche fare a meno.

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Statistical communication includes graphing data and fitted models, programming, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students, and combining words and pictures in different ways. The common theme of all these interactions is that we need to consider our statistical tools in the context of our goals. Communication is not just about conveying […]
The post Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal
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We will study and practice many different aspects of statistical communication, including graphing data and fitted models, programming in Rrrrrrrr, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students and colleagues, and combining words and pictures in different ways. You learn by doing: each week we have two classes that are full of student […]
The post My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal
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8:30 PM | Linkage

Why academic writing stinks or, keep it simple (G+)Sad news of the death of Ferran Hurtado (G+)A visual compendium of glowing creatures, scientific illustration by Eleanor Lutz (G+)Women in computer science get tenure at significantly lower rates than men even after normalizing for research productivity (G+)Tietze's graph, Wikipedia article expanded with a new illustration of why it has the name it has: it was an earlier counterexample in the theory of coloring graphs on non-orientable surfaces
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An Australian sanitary pad company has hit upon a witty tagline for their product: Literally thousands of people have signed a petition to tell Libra that that’s not OK. An advert for something which both men and women buy, like car sponges, with the tagline “absorbs way more than you ever did in maths... Read more »

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To celebrate the release of the upcoming Alan Turing biopic ‘The Imitation Game’ (see: our incisive analysis of the film’s trailer by James Grime) the guys at the University of Manchester – who have previously run the hugely successful Alan Turing Cryptography competition – have been asked to run a one-off Imitation Game Cryptography Competition. And... Read more »