# Posts

### September 24, 2014

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This one is like shooting fish in a barrel but sometimes the job just has to be done. . . . The paper is by Daryl Bem, Patrizio Tressoldi, Thomas Rabeyron, and Michael Duggan, it’s called “Feeling the Future: A Meta-Analysis of 90 Experiments on the Anomalous Anticipation of Random Future Events,” and it begins […] The post Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic] appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social […]
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Filed under: pictures, Travel Tagged: Austria, Baroque architecture, Franz Joseph I, Habsburgs, Schönbrunn palace, Unesco World Heritage List, Vienna
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Leslie Lamport coined the phrase “proof maintenance” to describe the process of producing variations of a proof over time. It’s well known that software needs to be maintained; most of the work on a program occurs after it is “finished.” Proof maintenance is common as well, but it is usually very informal. Proofs of any […]

### September 23, 2014

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As I was preparing my slides for my third year undergraduate stat course, I got a weird error that got a search on the Web to unravel: which was related with a fragile environment but not directly the verbatim part: the reason for the bug was that the \end{frame} command did not have a line […]
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This is the next chapter of my Statistics course, definitely more standard, with some notions on statistical models, limit theorems, and exponential families. In the first class, I recalled the convergence notions with no proof but counterexamples and spend some time on a slide not included here, borrowed from Chris Holmes’ talk last Friday on […]
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The power of algebra lies in abstraction, and abstraction is basically forgetting. By retracing the History of algebra from its roots to more recent advancements, this article unveils the numerous breakthrough in our understanding of the world, by abusing of the power of forgetting.
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When I interviewed Daniel Spielman at this year’s Heidelberg Laureate Forum, we began our conversation by looking for common mathematical ground. The first thing that came up was orthogonal polynomials. (If you’re wondering what it means for two polynomials to be orthogonal, see here.) JC: Orthogonal polynomials are kind of a lost art, a topic […]
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We had a discussion last month on the sister blog regarding the effects of subliminal messages on political attitudes.  It started with a Larry Bartels post entitled “Here’s how a cartoon smiley face punched a big hole in democratic theory,” with the subtitle, “Fleeting exposure to ‘irrelevant stimuli’ powerfully shapes our assessments of policy arguments,” discussing the […] The post Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim […]
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Earlier in September, I gave a semi-plenary at the 2014 German OR Conference in Aachen, Germany. It was a wonderful conference and experience that will inspire at least another blog post or two. The German OR Society and Marco Lübbecke were wonderful hosts and conference organizers. There were more than 850 attendees, 500 talks, and […]
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David Radcliffe asks for an explanation of the “bands” in the scatterplot of the number of solutions to p + q = 2n in primes. To give an example, we have 2 × 14 = 28 = 23 + 5 = 17 + 11 = 11 + 17 = 5 + 23 2 × 15 […]
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My friend Jan Zilinsky recently sent me this blogpost from the NeuroCritic which investigates the repercussions of having biomarkers held against individuals. In this case, the biomarker was in the brain and indicated a propensity for taking financial risks. Or maybe it didn’t really – the case wasn’t closed – but that was the idea, […]
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Per i I cieli di Brera, il 24 settembre (domani... scusate per il ritardo nell'annuncio...) alle 18 presso la Sala delle Adunanze dell'Istituto Lombardo nel Palazzo Brera sito in via Brera 28 (Milano), si terrà la conferenza La fisica delle particelle e il Large Hadron Collider: recenti sviluppi e questioni aperte: Cristina Lazzeroni ci introdurrà alla fisica delle particelle e agli studi fatti al Large Hadron Collider del Cern di Ginevra mettendo l’accento su recenti […]

Aad G., J. Abdallah, S. Abdel Khalek, O. Abdinov, R. Aben, B. Abi, S. H. Abidi, M. Abolins, O. S. AbouZeid & H. Abramowicz & (2014). Measurement of the Higgs boson mass from the $H\to \gamma \gamma$ and $H\to Z{Z}^{*}\to 4\ell$ channels in $pp$ collisions at center-of-mass energies of 7 and 8 TeV with the ATLAS detector, Physical Review D, 90 (5) DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1103/physrevd.90.052004

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Friend of the Aperiodical Samuel Hansen has launched a Kickstarter to fund a second series of his maths podcast Relatively Prime. The first series was successfully funded in 2011 and consisted of eight hour-long episodes telling “stories from the mathematical domain”, including interviews with Tim Gowers, Matt Parker, David Spiegelhalter and more. For the second series,... Read more »

### September 22, 2014

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David Rothschild (coauthor of the Xbox study, the Mythical Swing Voter paper, and of course the notorious Aapor note) will be speaking Friday 10 Oct in the Economics and Big Data meetup in NYC. His title: “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry: information aggregation using non-representative polling data.” Should be fun! P.P.S. […] The post “How to disrupt the multi-billion dollar survey research industry” appeared first on Statistical […]
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A few weeks ago the following came in the email: Dear Professor Gelman, I am writing you because I am a prospective doctoral student with considerable interest in your research. My name is Xian Zhao, but you can call me by my English name Alex, a student from China. My plan is to apply to […] The post Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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Mon: Some will spam you with a six-gun and some with a fountain pen Tues: Why I’m still not persuaded by the claim that subliminal smiley-faces can have big effects on political attitudes Wed: Study published in 2011, followed by successful replication in 2003 [sic] Thurs: Waic for time series Fri: MA206 Program Director’s Memorandum Sat: “An […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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Filed under: pictures, Running, Travel Tagged: Austria, Donau, skyscrapers, sunrise, Vienna
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Many people, more often than not these are people from analysis or worse (read: physicists, which in general are not bad, but I am bothered when they think they have a say in how theoretical mathematics should be done), would say ridiculous things like “We need to omit the axiom of choice, and keep only […]
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On January 26th-27th 2015, the Faculty of Philosophy of the University of Groningen will host a short Winter School aimed at advanced undergraduate students and early-stage graduate students. The theme of the winter school is Paradoxes and Dilemmas, and it will consist of 6 tutorials where the topic will be discussed from different viewpoints: theoretical philosophy, practical philosophy, and the history of philosophy. As such, the Winter School may be of interest to at least some of the M-Phi […]
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Michael Atiyah quoted Hermann Weyl in the opening talk at the second Heidelberg Laureate Forum: I believe there is, in mathematics, in contrast to the experimental disciplines, a character which is nearer to that of free creative art. There is evidence that the relation of artistic beauty and mathematical beauty is more than an analogy. […]
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This year the autumnal equinox – which marks the point when the sun crosses the celestial equator – falls on September 22 in the United States (10:29 PM Eastern time, and earlier for the other time zones.) People seem to refer to this as the “first day of fall”. But this is the astronomical definition. […]

### September 21, 2014

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Oltre ai problemi di pubblicazione, la gestazione del post è stata sicuramente la più complessa di tutta la serie dedicata ad "Astro Boy". Il post che segue ha subito almeno un paio di riscritture a partire da un testo di base iniziale, che vi posso assicurare alla fine è risultato completamente stravolto. La versione alla fine pubblicata non mi ha comunque soddisfatto appieno, ma se avessi continuato a limare, probabilmente non avrebbe visto mai la luce e non avevo altre […]
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This summer, for the first time, I took three Dauphine undergraduate students into research projects thinking they had had enough R training (with me!) and several stats classes to undertake such projects. In all cases, the concept was pre-defined and “all they had to do” was running a massive flow of simulations in R (or […]
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http://t.co/7JB3CPaQt9 #Feynman Richard Feynman, Winner of the 1965 Nobel Prize in Physics, gives us an insightful lecture about computer heuristics: how computers work, how they file information, how they handle data, how they use their information in allocated processing in a finite amount of time to solve problems and how they actually compute values of interest to human beings. These topics are essential in the study of what processes reduce the amount of work done in solving a particular […]
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Khan Academy has released a new library to typeset mathematical notation on webpages, called KaTeX. “But we already have MathJax!” you say, perhaps a little too enthusiastically. Well, Khan Academy has a lot of pages about maths, and they have a fairly rare set of requirements: the maths they use is relatively simple, they usually have a... Read more »
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What convex centrally symmetric shape is worst at tiling the plane with high density?
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Andrew Lee writes: I recently read in the MIT Technology Review about some researchers claiming to remove “bias” from the wisdom of crowds by focusing on those more “confident” in their views. I [Lee] was puzzled by this result/claim because I always thought that people who (1) are more willing to reassess their priors and […] The post I can’t think of a good title for this one. appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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Filed under: pictures, Running, Travel Tagged: Austria, Hasburg dynasty, Hofburg, Vienna
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If you walk across the Seine in Paris on the Pont des Arts you’ll see thousands and thousands of love locks. I saw this morning that Heidelberg has its own modest collection of love locks on the Old Bridge across the Neckar. These may be new. If they were here last year, I didn’t notice […]
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What Space Projects Excite Me: Multi-Messenger Astronomy A few weeks ago, awesome blogger and space advocate Zain Husain asked me to contribute to a roundup post he wrote. He contacted a bunch of people (most of them much more prestigious than me) and asked them one question: … Continue reading → The post What Space Projects Excite Me: Multi-Messenger Astronomy appeared first on The Physics Mill.