# Posts

### March 23, 2015

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2:00 PM | Paul Meehl continues to be the boss

Lee Sechrest writes: Here is a remarkable paper, not well known, by Paul Meehl. My research group is about to undertake a fresh discussion of it, which we do about every five or ten years. The paper is now more than a quarter of a century old but it is, I think, dramatically pertinent to […]
The post Paul Meehl continues to be the boss appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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1:00 PM | On deck this week

Mon: Paul Meehl continues to be the boss Tues: Adiabatic as I wanna be: Or, how is a chess rating like classical economics? Wed: Define first, prove later Thurs: Another disgraced primatologist . . . this time featuring “sympathetic dentists” Fri: Imagining p
The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

### March 22, 2015

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11:15 PM | ABC for copula estimation

Clara Grazian and Brunero Liseo (di Roma) have just arXived a note on a method merging copulas, ABC, and empirical likelihood. The approach is rather hybrid and thus not completely Bayesian, but this must be seen as a consequence of an ill-posed problem. Indeed, as in many econometric models, the model there is not fully […]

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7:00 PM | PRIMES Dominates High School Research

The 2015 Intel Science Talent Search results are out. This year they divided the prizes into three categories: basic research, global good, and innovation. All three top prizes in basic research were awarded to our PRIMES students: First place: Noah Golowich, Resolving a Conjecture on Degree of Regularity, with some Novel Structural Results Second place: […]

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6:58 PM | Puzzling Grades

I lead recitations for a Linear Algebra class at MIT. Sometimes my students are disappointed with their grades. The grades are based on the final score, which is calculated by the following formula: 15% for homework, 15% for each of the three midterms, and 40% for the final. After all the scores are calculated, we […]

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Oggi, in occasione della giornata internazionale dell'acqua (leggi anche OggiScienza), recupero un estratto (modificato) di un post dedicato alla storia Zio Paperone e la grande avventura acquatica di Valentina Camerini e Marco MazzarelloI protagonisti della storia sono Archimede Pitagorico accompagnato da Paperone e da Paperinik. I tre paperi, mentre stanno rimpicciolendo alcuni iceberg, vengono per sbaglio ridotti a dimensioni atomiche dall'ultima invenzione di Archimede, riducendosi fino
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4:21 PM | I marmocchi di Agnes

Durante le mie vacanze estive ho girato poco per librerie. Anzi, purtroppo sono andata in libreria solo due volte, delle quali una molto veloce. Però, nel mio primo giro, oltre un libro per bambini, ho acquistato due libri anche per me, uno dei quali è il seguito di "Agnes Browne mamma". La curiosità di sapere come sono continuate le vite della famiglia Browne era troppo grande!Agnes Browne ha continuato la sua vita di mamma/papà e venditrice di frutta e verdura al
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Not a lot of action on yesterday‘s post, so I don’t think the winner will advance any farther . . . But, in any case, I’ll call it for Carlin based on Jonathan’s amusing babble of postmodernist commentary. As for today: What can you say? A great pairing to close out the second round of […]
The post Judy Garland (4) vs. John Waters (1); Carlin advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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A couple months ago we discussed this question from Sean de Hoon: In many cross-national comparative studies, mixed effects models are being used in which a number of slopes are fixed and the slopes of one or two variables of interested are allowed to vary across countries. The aim is often then to explain the […]
The post Why I don’t use the terms “fixed” and “random” (again) appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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1:18 PM | a marathon a day for… a year?!

“I think a lot of people do not push themselves enough.” Rob Young I found this Guardian article about Rob Young and his goal of running the equivalent of 400 marathons in 365 days. Meaning there are days he runs the equivalent of three marathons. Hard to believe, isn’t it?! But his terrible childhood is […]

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5:18 AM | Clique minors in de Bruijn graphs

In my new Wikipedia article on the queue number of graphs, the binary de Bruijn graphs form an important family of examples. These are 4-regular graphs with one vertex for every n-bit binary string, and with an edge from every string of the form 0s or 1s to s0 or s1. I posted about them here several years ago, with the following drawing, which can be interpreted as a 2-queue drawing with one queue for the edges that wrap around the left side and another for the edges that wrap around the
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Long time since I last posted something like this, but I do remember you enjoyed it a lot, so I thought that I should finally do this one. Yesterday was the 1st day of spring and soon it’s summer and most of us (including myself ^_^) still have to plan their summer holidays. As you […]

### March 21, 2015

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11:15 PM | Dom Juan’s opening

The opening lines of the Dom Juan plan by Molière, a play with highly subversive undertones about free will and religion. And this ode to tobacco that may get it banned in Australia, if the recent deprogramming of Bizet’s Carmen is setting a trend! [Personal note to Andrew: neither Molière’s not my research are or […]

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8:58 PM | a mad afternoon!

An insanely exciting final day and end to the 2015 Six Nations tournament! on the first game of the afternoon, Wales beat Italy in Rome by a sound 20-61!, turning them into likely champions. But then, right after, Ireland won against Scotland 10-40! In mythical Murrayfield. A feat that made them winners unless England won […]

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6:19 PM | Raccontare l'eclissi

foto di Luca Di FinoQuando il saggio indica la luna, lo stolto guarda l'eclissi. E si brucia la retina. E il saggio si ammazza dalle risate.Enrico MiceliDopo le foto di ieri, una raccolta di tweet e link e citazioni. Iniziamo con una serie di tweet di Giorgio Sestili segnalati da Luca Di Fino:Pensate alle popolazioni passate, che nulla sapevano sull'eclissi e sul moto dei pianeti. Improvvisamente, in pieno giorno, il buio! [1]Presagi funesti, segni anticipatori di sventure, sovvertimento
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Yesterday‘s best comment comes from Zbicyclist, who wrote: My wife would prefer I not go to a talk by someone who wrote so extensively about adultery. But of course that would rule out both John Updike and Bertrand Russell. We could use “number of wives” as a tiebreaker, but instead I’ll go with Updike based […]
The post George Carlin (2) vs. Jacques Derrida; Updike advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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Brian Silver pointed me to this post from Andrew Lindner: This week, my manuscript, co-authored by Melissa Lindquist and Julie Arnold, “Million Dollar Maybe? The Effect of Female Presence in Movies on Box Office Returns” was published online by Sociological Inquiry. It will appear in print later this year. So far, no surprises. A researcher […]
The post “How the Internet Scooped Science (and What Science Still Has to Offer)” appeared first on Statistical Modeling,
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4:55 AM | Shattered glass

A broken pane in the main stairwell of my department's building (maybe a bird strike?) gave me a chance to play with the geometry of shattered glass.( The rest of the photos )

### March 20, 2015

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11:15 PM | Gray matters [not much, truly]

Through the blog of Andrew Jaffe, Leaves on the Lines, I became aware of John Gray‘s tribune in The Guardian, “What scares the new atheists“. Gray’s central points against “campaigning” or “evangelical” atheists are that their claim to scientific backup is baseless, that they mostly express a fear about the diminishing influence of the liberal […]

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In yesterday‘s bout, another founder of religion falls, thanks to this comment by Zbicyclist: Do we want an audience full of would-be Ubermensches, or an audience of the proletariat? Considering Columbia is an Ivy League school, I guess we have to go with the Ubermensches. And today’s contest features the eminently sane conservative vs. the […]
The post John Updike vs. Bertrand Russell; Nietzsche advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social
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3:51 PM | Un sorriso nel cielo

Questa mattina, il più in fretta possibile, mi sono diretto all'Osservatorio Astronomico a Brera, sapendo che, nonostante il cielo coperto, ci sarebbero state un po' di persone pronte, in fila, per assistere alle varie fasi dell'eclissi parziale di Sole, prevista tra le 9:30 circa e le 11:45 circa.A gruppi di circa 40 persone, i visitatori sono stati fatti salire sul terrazzo della Cupola Fiore e, tra occhialini, filtri e telescopi, hanno tutti potuto osservare, anche solo per pochi
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Today there is general agreement throughout the world that for commercial and international political purposes everybody uses the Gregorian calendar, first introduced into the Catholic countries of Europe in 1582. However Europeans should never forget that for other purposes other … Continue reading →

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Mollie Wood writes: I am a doctoral student in clinical and population health research. My dissertation research is on prenatal medication exposure and neurodevelopmental outcomes in children, and I’ve encountered a difficult problem that I hope you might be able to advise me on. I am working on a problem in which my main exposure […]
The post Bayesian models, causal inference, and time-varying exposures appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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10:37 AM | Combinatorics of non-crossing partitions

The board is a result of of Bin Shu from East China Normal University visiting Iain Gordon at the University of Edinburgh. In Iain’s words: “We were discussing the combinatorics of non-crossing partitions, and its generalisations to a bunch of different finite groups. The two diagrams are Cayley graphs of symmetric groups where one calculates […]

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When teaching philosophical logic to undergraduates, I feel I have two responsibilities: (a) To teach them logic and (b) To teach them something of the historical development of the field. (Alas, given constraints arising from not enough time, (b) generally means saying something about 20th C developments, rather than what I'd really like to tell them about, namely, 13th and 14th C developments!) This means that when the part of the module where I teach quantified modal logic (QML) came
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### March 19, 2015

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A book that came to me for review in CHANCE and that came completely unannounced is Andris Abakuks’ The Synoptic Problem and Statistics. “Unannounced” in that I had not heard so far of the synoptic problem. This problem is one of ordering and connecting the gospels in the New Testament, more precisely the “synoptic” gospels […]

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11:08 PM | Il "ritorno" di Casty negli Stati Uniti

Ovviamente è un "ritorno" fumettistico, con l'uscita, sul primo numero della nuova serie di Mickey Mouse targata IDW (che prosegue con doppia numerazione dalla precedente), dove viene pubblicata Topolino e la spedizione perduta disegnata da Giorgio Cavazzano. Per l'occasione Casty ha anche disegnato la copertina regolare dell'albo: via Comic Book Resources

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5:28 PM | Board of pi

This board by David Cushing at Newcastle University attempts to calculate pi very crudely by counting how many squares a circle covers and using the formula Area = pi x r2 to get a value of 2.98. Can you do better? This exercise was part of a series of activities carried out to celebrate “Ultimate pi […]