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Posts

May 07, 2013

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1:28 PM | Is Felix Salmon wrong on free TV?
Mark Palko writes: Salmon is dismissive of the claim that there are fifty million over-the-air television viewers: The 50 million number, by the way, should not be considered particularly reliable: it’s Aereo’s guess as to the number of people who ever watch free-to-air TV, even if they mainly watch cable or satellite. (Maybe they have [...]The post Is Felix Salmon wrong on free TV? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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12:00 PM | Almost if and only if
The Perrin numbers have a definition analogous to Fibonacci numbers. Define P0 = 3, P1 = 0, and P2 = 2. Then for n > 2, define Pn+3 = Pn+1 + Pn+0. The Concrete Tetrahedron says It appears that n…Read more ›
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11:07 AM | The NYC Data Skeptics Meetup
One thing I’m super excited about at work is the new NYC Data Skeptics Meetup we’re organizing. Here’s the description of our mission: The hype surrounding Big Data and Data Science is at a fever pitch with promises to solve the world’s business and social problems, large and small. How accurate or misleading is this [...]

May 06, 2013

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10:13 PM | At the hospital
Spending three weeks in an hospital has certainly been a novel experience for me! Except for the boredom (reflected by the many books reviews found in the past posts) and the uncertainty about the success of the graft, not mentioning the occasional pain, I found the experience interesting in several ways. First, I discussed a [...]
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7:47 PM | BF Skinner was emo
I’m sorry there’s been so much “young B.F. Skinner” material here but I can’t get enough of this stuff! In 1926, age 22, living in his parents’ attic, he writes an essay in his notebook called “WHAT I ACHIEVE I DESPISE,” which includes this: Nothing is worth doing.  But we have the instinct to do, [...]
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1:00 PM | Against optimism about social science
Social science research has been getting pretty bad press recently, what with the Excel buccaneers who didn’t know how to handle data with different numbers of observations per country, and the psychologist who published dozens of papers based on fabricated data, and the Evilicious guy who wouldn’t let people review his data tapes, etc etc. [...]The post Against optimism about social science appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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12:00 PM | Who does screencasting help the most?
Here's another article about a recent paper detailing a study of student screencast use in an introductory engineering class. The authors found positive correlations between screencast use and course grades, but the statistical significance depends on (among other things) the students' majors. But the strongest correlation is within majors that are least likely to be familiar with the course material.
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11:04 AM | In defense of neglectful parenting
As I promised yesterday, I want to respond to this New Yorker article “The Child Trap: the rise of overparenting,” which my friend Chris Wiggins forwarded to me. The premise of the article is that nowadays we spoil our kids, force them to do a bunch of adult-supervised after-school activities, and generally speaking hover over [...]

May 05, 2013

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11:00 PM | Social learning dilemma
Last week, my father sent me a link to the 100 top-ranked specialties in the sciences and social sciences. The Web of Knowledge report considered 10 broad areas[1] of natural and social science, and for each one listed 10 research fronts that they consider as the key fields to watch in 2013 and are “hot [...]

Rendell L, Boyd R, Cownden D, Enquist M, Eriksson K, Feldman MW, Fogarty L, Ghirlanda S, Lillicrap T & Laland KN & (2010). Why copy others? Insights from the social learning strategies tournament., Science, 328 (5975) 208-213. PMID:

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10:13 PM | Initializing adaptive importance sampling with Markov chains
Another paper recently arXived by Beaujean and Caldwell elaborated on our population Monte Carlo papers (Cappé et al., 2005, Douc et al., 2007, Wraith et al., 2010) to design a more thorough starting distribution. Interestingly, the authors mention the fact that PMC is an EM-type algorithm to emphasize the importance of the starting distribution, as [...]
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8:29 PM | Newcastle MathsJam March and April 2013 Recap
Here’s another double-bill MathsJam recap; I’ve been truly awful at keeping up this year. The first thing I have written down in my notebook for March’s Newcastle MathsJam is a scribbled-upon sketch of what looks like some paths on a …
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7:42 PM | Cleaning up science
David Hogg pointed me to this post by Gary Marcus, reviewing this skeptics’ all-star issue of Perspectives on Psychological Science that features replication culture heroes Jelte Wicherts, Hal Pashler, Arina Bones, E. J. Wagenmakers, Gregory Francis, Hal Pashler, John Ioannidis, and Uri Simonsohn. I agree with pretty much everything Marcus has to say. In addition [...]
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5:21 PM | Ramanujan approximation for circumference of an ellipse
There’s no elementary formula for the circumference of an ellipse, but there is an elementary approximation that is extremely accurate. An ellipse has equation (x/a)² + (y/b)² = 1. If a = b, the ellipse reduces to a circle and…Read more ›
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2:28 PM | Do what I want or do what I really want
I’m on my way out to a picnic in Central Park on this glorious Sunday morning, and I plan to write a much more thorough post in response to this New Yorker article on overparenting that my friend Chris Wiggins sent me, but today I just wanted to impart one idea I’ve developed as a [...]
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2:11 PM | Speed-Crankery
A fun game to play with cranks is: how long does it take for the crank to contradict themselves? When you're looking at a good example of crankery, it's full of errors. But for this game, it's not enough to just find an error. What we want is for them to say something so wrong [...]
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12:07 PM | The New York Times Book of Mathematics
This was an good idea: take a bunch of old (and some recent) news articles on developments in mathematics and related ares from the past hundred years. Fun for the math content and historical/nostalgia value. Relive the four-color theorem, Fermat, fractals, and early computing. I have too much of a technical bent to be the [...]
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7:50 AM | Faster than a Speeding Pony: Why We Do Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations
Faster than a Speeding Pony: Why We Do Back-of-the-Envelope CalculationsThis post will be rather short because I’m in the middle of finals. Of course, if you follow me regularly, you also know that I’ve posted rather a lot this week. When I’m exhausted from studying, it’s much easier to … Continue reading →The post Faster than a Speeding Pony: Why We Do Back-of-the-Envelope Calculations appeared first on The Physics Mill.
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2:02 AM | One more thought on Hoover historian Niall Ferguson’s thing about Keynes being gay and marrying a ballerina and talking about poetry
We had some interesting comments on our recent reflections on Niall Ferguson’s ill-chosen remarks in which he attributed Keynes’s economic views (I don’t actually know exactly what Keyesianism is, but I think a key part is for the government to run surpluses during economic booms and deficits during recessions) to the Keynes being gay and [...]

May 04, 2013

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10:13 PM | hospital series
While I usually never find enough time to watch series (or even less telly!), I took advantage of those three weeks at the hospital to catch up with Game of Thrones and discovered Sherlock, thanks to Judith. As I have been reading George Martin’s epics, A Song of Ice and Fire, from the very beginning [...]
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5:20 PM | Elasticity of the air
Text extracted from "The magician's own book, or The whole art of conjuring" (1862) by George Arnold This can be shown by a beautiful philosophical toy which may easily be constructed. Procure a glass jar, such as is here represented. Then mould three or four little figures in wax, and make them hollow within, and having each a minute opening at the heel, by which water may pass in and out. Place them in the jar, as seen in the figure, and adjust them by the quantity of water admitted to […]
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5:07 PM | The Folk Theorem of Statistical Computing
From an email I received the other day: Things are going much better now — it’s interesting, it feels like with both of my models, parameters are slow to converge or get “stuck” and have trouble mixing when the model is somehow misspecified. See here for a statement of the folk theorem.
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4:00 PM | Proof of the Pythagorean Theorem
This month, I decided I would focus on one of the most famous theorems in all of mathematics: The Pythagorean Theorem. Though it sounds kind of dull on the face, it has a lot of extremely interesting things within it.First, let me go over what it is. If you take a right triangle, and label the measure of its shortest side a, its middle side b, and its longest side c, then you can count on the fact that:a2 + b2 = c2 This can be used in geometry problems, like to find the longest side, or […]
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2:52 PM | Would you consider getting your Ph.D. in 3 years or less?
Gödel had his doctorate at 23, completing all his university studies in about 5 years. In the U.S., for example, if one goes through the usual path of four years of undergraduate studies (after being admitted to a university at … Continue reading →
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2:05 PM | Jesus historian Niall Ferguson and the improving standards of public discourse
History professor (or, as the news reports call him, “Harvard historian”) Niall Ferguson got in trouble when speaking at a conference of financial advisors. Tom Kostigen reports: Ferguson responded to a question about Keynes’ famous philosophy of self-interest versus the economic philosophy of Edmund Burke, who believed there was a social contract among the living, [...]
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1:30 PM | Four Papers in Three Weeks
I wish I could write four papers in three weeks. The title just means that I submitted four papers to the arXiv in the last three weeks—somehow, after the stress of doing my taxes ended, four of my papers converged to their final state very fast. Here are the papers with [...]
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1:26 PM | Aunt Pythia’s advice – nose rings, breakups, itchy fingers, and data science
Aunt Pythia is yet again gratified to find a few new questions in her inbox this morning, but as usual, she’s running quite low. After reading and enjoying the column below, please consider making some fabricated, melodramatic dilemma up out of whole cloth and, more importantly: Please submit your fake question for Aunt Pythia at [...]
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1:17 PM | The fellowship of men whose household purchasing decisions are driven by their preschool-age daughters
Recently I was in Chicago, on the subway, and a big dude came up behind me and tapped me on the shoulder, and I turned around, and the big dude held up his index finger, to show me that he too was wearing a Hello Kitty band-aid.
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8:53 AM | Comment on An Update on Kiera Wilmot by Tammi L. Coles
Jonah, I've posted a list of all of the school, government, and state offices involved in this case here: http://bit.ly/ZuDRYa. I posted this link and my contact information to DNLee. Perhaps you could post an express mail form here too so that people can immediately write to these folks on Kiera's behalf? There's also now a Crowd.it fundraiser started by another (angry and motivated) netizen. There's more to do!
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6:04 AM | Roberts and Speed elected to the Fellowship of the Royal Society
I just found out that Gareth Roberts and Terry Speed had been elected as Fellows of the Royal Society. Congratulations to both for this prestigious recognition of their major contributions to Science! (Another Fellow elected this year is Bill Bryson, in recognition of his scientific popularisation books.) Filed under: Books, Statistics, University life Tagged: Bill [...]
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3:00 AM | Evolutionary economics and game theory
Like the agents they study, evolutionary economics is highly heterogeneous. Models are ad-hoc and serve as heuristic guides to specific problems. This is similar to theoretical biology, where evolutionary models are independent of each other. Even the general theory of inclusive fitness does not provide a non-controversial unifying framework. Although there is no single framework, [...]

Hodgson, G. & Huang, K. (2010). Evolutionary game theory and evolutionary economics: are they different species?, Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 22 (2) 345-366. DOI:

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