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Posts

March 31, 2014

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2:55 PM | The most fearless and the most fearful people
While I was in Europe, someone commented to me that Americans are the most fearless and the most fearful people on Earth. We put men on the moon, and we walk around with hand sanitizer. We start bold business ventures…Read more ›
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2:54 PM | The most-cited statistics papers ever
Robert Grant has a list. I’ll just give the ones with more than 10,000 Google Scholar cites: Cox (1972) Regression and life tables: 35,512 citations. Dempster, Laird, Rubin (1977) Maximum likelihood from incomplete data via the EM algorithm: 34,988 Bland & Altman (1986) Statistical methods for assessing agreement between two methods of clinical measurement: 27,181 […]The post The most-cited statistics papers ever appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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2:36 PM | my talk at the University of Michigan IOE department
On Friday I gave a seminar at the University of Michigan’s Industrial and Operations Engineering Department. I was invited by the INFORMS student chapter and the Michigan IOE Diversity Initiative headed by Mariel Lavieri. I owe a special thank you to the INFORMS Speakers Program that subsidized the cost of my trip. Women, minority, and international students attended the lunch. […]
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Mon: The most-cited statistics papers ever Tues: American Psychological Society announces a new journal Wed: Am I too negative? Thurs: As the boldest experiment in journalism history, you admit you made a mistake Fri: The Notorious N.H.S.T. presents: Mo P-values Mo Problems Sat: Bizarre academic spam Sun: An old discussion of food desertsThe post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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10:54 AM | Lobbyists have another reason to dominate public commenting #OWS
Before I begin this morning’s rant, I need to mention that, as I’ve taken on a new job recently and I’m still trying to write a book, I’m expecting to not be able to blog as regularly as I have been. It pains me to say it but my posts will become more intermittent until […]
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10:42 AM | Did Edmond tells Robert to, “sling his hooke!”?
The circumstances surrounding the genesis and publication of Newton’s magnum opus, Philosophiæ Naturalis Principia Mathematica, and the priority dispute concerning the origins of the concept of universal gravity are amongst the best documented in the history of science. Two of … Continue reading →
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10:19 AM | Just gave a talk
I just gave a talk in Milan. Actually I was sitting at my desk, it was a g+ hangout which was a bit more convenient for me. The audience was a bunch of astronomers so I figured they could handle a satellite link. . . . Anyway, the talk didn’t go so well. Two reasons: […]The post Just gave a talk appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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9:53 AM | Discrete and continuous models for tissue growth and shrinkage
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9:02 AM | Operads and Trees
It would be nice if someone had already proved these conjectured results relating trees and operads.
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2:27 AM | RSA Encryption – Keeping the Internet Secure
  We use the Internet for many things, from reading news articles, to keeping in touch with friends on social media, to shopping from the comfort of our own homes. Many of these tasks involve sending sensitive personal information (such … Continue reading →
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12:36 AM | Amazing approximation to e
Here’s an approximation to e by Richard Sabey that uses the digits 1 through 9 and is accurate to over a septillion digits. (A septillion is 1024.) MathWorld says that this approximation is accurate to 18457734525360901453873570 decimal digits. How could…Read more ›

March 30, 2014

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10:14 PM | Bayesian Data Analysis [BDA3 - part #2]
Here is the second part of my review of Gelman et al.’ Bayesian Data Analysis (third edition): “When an iterative simulation algorithm is “tuned” (…) the iterations will not in general converge to the target distribution.” (p.297) Part III covers advanced computation, obviously including MCMC but also model approximations like variational Bayes and expectation propagation […]
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10:07 PM | 2048
Ricordate 10? Il gameplay del gioco, opportunamente modificato e adattato, è stato successivamente applicato ad altri giochi numerici come Threes di Asher Vollmer o 1024 dei Veewo Studio. In entrambi i casi si gioca con le potenze, del 3 e del 2 rispettivamente. In particolare il secondo si vince raggiungendo $1024$, che è $2^{10}$.Nel mondo dei videogiochi, però, i cloni vincono sempre ed ecco che 1024 genera un po' di suoi cloni tutti con il titolo di 2048, che poi […]
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1:41 PM | Adjudicating between alternative interpretations of a statistical interaction?
Jacob Felson writes: Say we have a statistically significant interaction in non-experimental data between two continuous predictors, X and Z and it is unclear which variable is primarily a cause and which variable is primarily a moderator. One person might find it more plausible to think of X as a cause and Z as a […]The post Adjudicating between alternative interpretations of a statistical interaction? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:32 PM | Fourier Series and Flipped Classrooms
Moving beyond traditional lecturing.
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10:14 AM | When gaming is NP-hard
by @ulaulaman about #candycrush #bejeweled #shariki #nphard #computerscience Shariki is a puzzle game developed by the russian programmer Eugene Alemzhin in 1994. The rules are simple: (...) matching three or more balls of the same color in line (vertical or horizontal). These balls then explode and a new ones appear in their place.The first Shariki's clone is Tetris Attack, a fusion between Shariki and the most famous Tetris, also this developed in Soviet Union by Alexey Pajitnov. But the […]
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7:11 AM | Scattering Part Two: A Quantum of Scattering
Scattering Part Two: A Quantum of Scattering We come spinning out of nothing, scattering stars like dust! ~Jalāl ad-Dīn Muhammad Rūmī Last week, I explained Rayleigh and Raman scattering from a classical point of view. In the process, I explained why the sky is blue and introduced … Continue reading → The post Scattering Part Two: A Quantum of Scattering appeared first on The Physics Mill.

March 29, 2014

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11:14 PM | speed [quick book review]
Ueli Steck is a Swiss alpinist who climbed solo the three “last” north face routes of the Alps (Eiger, Jorasses, and Cervino/Matterhorn) in the record times of 2:47, 2:27, and 1:56… He also recently climbed Annapurna in 27 hours from base camp, again solo and with no oxygen. (Which led some to doubt his record […]
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4:00 PM | Conclusion to Half-Tau Month
Though pi day passed a few weeks ago, my brother made the interesting observation that this month is "Pi Month." It is March of 2014, or 3/14. Since I spent the month focused on trigonometry, I never had a chance to honor this joyous occasion until today.Interestingly, pi does play a huge role in trigonometry. From wrapping functions to sine curves to angle measurements, pi is always popping up. Though this is kind of interesting, trigonometry is also one of the areas where tau really shines. […]
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1:14 PM | References (with code) for Bayesian hierarchical (multilevel) modeling and structural equation modeling
A student writes: I am new to Bayesian methods. While I am reading your book, I have some questions for you. I am interested in doing Bayesian hierarchical (multi-level) linear regression (e.g., random-intercept model) and Bayesian structural equation modeling (SEM)—for causality. Do you happen to know if I could find some articles, where authors could […]The post References (with code) for Bayesian hierarchical (multilevel) modeling and structural equation modeling appeared first […]
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1:11 PM | Aunt Pythia’s advice
Aunt Pythia is so very pleased to bring you more of her pearls of wisdom this nearly-believably-spring morning. In celebration of above-freezing temperature, she’s extra cheerful and she welcomes the clouds and drizzle. After all, late March showers bring late April flowers, or something like that! Let there be blooming and cleansing! And please, after […]
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10:19 AM | I agree with this comment
The anonymous commenter puts it well: The problem is simple, the researchers are disproving always false null hypotheses and taking this disproof as near proof that their theory is correct.The post I agree with this comment appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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6:07 AM | Greetings from Barbados
I'm back now, but this beach house in Barbados was my home for the last week, as I attended the 29th Bellairs Winter Workshop on Computational Geometry (my first time there).The format of the workshop is very much aimed at making new research, not just sharing what the participants have done elsewhere (as many other workshops and conferences do). We met as a group twice each day for three-hour group sessions, one in the morning and another in the evening, with afternoons as free time. The […]
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4:01 AM | Looking like you know what you’re doing
I’ve been in The Netherlands this week for a conference where I gave a talk on erasure coding. Last night after the conference, my host drove me and another speaker to Schiphol Airport. I’m staying in Amsterdam, but it was…Read more ›

March 28, 2014

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11:14 PM | ski with deviation
I just learned that a micro-brew brand of homemade skis has connections with statistics and, who knows, could become a sponsor to the next MCMSki…  Indeed, the brand is called deviation (as in standard deviation), located in Gresham, Oregon, and sell locally made skis and snowboards with names like The Moment Generator or The Mode! […]
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8:59 PM | Passione per la lettura
(da Topolino e il finale giallo di Michele Gazzarri e Romano Scarpa)
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8:34 PM | The Cayley-Salmon theorem via classical differential geometry
Let be an irreducible polynomial in three variables. As is not algebraically closed, the zero set can split into various components of dimension between and . For instance, if , the zero set is a line; more interestingly, if , then is the union of a line and a surface (or the product of an […]
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1:59 PM | Creating a Lenin-style democracy
Mark Palko explains why a penalty for getting the wrong answer on a test (the SAT, which is used in college admissions and which is used in the famous 8 schools example) is not a “penalty for guessing.” Then the very next day he catches this from Todd Balf in the New York Times Magazine: […]The post Creating a Lenin-style democracy appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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1:38 PM | NIMBioS and University of Tennessee to Exhibit at ‘Superbowl of STEM’ in DC
NIMBioS and the University of Tennessee hopes to inspire the next generation of innovators at the 3rd USA Science & Engineering Festival Expo and Book Fair, to be held April 26-27 in Washington, DC. The Festival Expo, which takes place … Continue reading →
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12:56 PM | What happened to the world we knew?
I was unlocking my bike, with music turned on low, and a couple of high school kids were lounging around nearby. One of them walked over and asked, « Qui est-ce qui chante? ». I responded, “Stevie Wonder” (not trying any accent on this one). The kid said, « Ees good ».The post What happened to the world we knew? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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