Posts

October 17, 2014

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1:33 PM | How do companies use Bayesian methods?
Jason May writes: I’m in Northwestern’s Predictive Analytics grad program. I’m working on a project providing Case Studies of how companies use certain analytic processes and want to use Bayesian Analysis as my focus. The problem: I can find tons of work on how one might apply Bayesian Statistics to different industries but very little […] The post How do companies use Bayesian methods? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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10:34 AM | De-anonymizing what used to be anonymous: NYC taxicabs
Thanks to Artem Kaznatcheev, I learned yesterday about the recent work of Anthony Tockar in exploring the field of anonymization and deanonymization of datasets. Specifically, he looked at the 2013 cab rides in New York City, which was provided under a FOIL request, and he stalked celebrities Bradley Cooper and Jessica Alba (and discovered that neither of them […]

October 16, 2014

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10:14 PM | insufficient statistics for ABC model choice
[Here is a revised version of my comments on the paper by Julien Stoehr, Pierre Pudlo, and Lionel Cucala, now to appear [both paper and comments] in Statistics and Computing special MCMSki 4 issue.] Approximate Bayesian computation techniques are 2000’s successors of MCMC methods as handling new models where MCMC algorithms are at a loss, […]
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2:38 PM | Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science
Anna Dreber Almenberg writes: The second prediction market project for the reproducibility project will soon be up and running – please participate! There will be around 25 prediction markets, each representing a particular study that is currently being replicated. Each study (and thus market) can be summarized by a key hypothesis that is being tested, which […] The post Prediction Market Project for the Reproducibility of Psychological Science appeared first on Statistical […]
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11:28 AM | Bad Paper by Jake Halpern
Yesterday I finished Jake Halpern’s new book, Bad Paper: Chasing Debt From Wall Street To The Underground. It’s an interesting series of close-up descriptions of the people who have been buying and selling revolving debt since the credit crisis, as well as the actual business of debt collecting. He talks about the very real problem, […]

October 15, 2014

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10:14 PM | a bootstrap likelihood approach to Bayesian computation
This paper by Weixuan Zhu, Juan Miguel Marín [from Carlos III in Madrid, not to be confused with Jean-Michel Marin, from Montpellier!], and Fabrizio Leisen proposes an alternative to our 2013 PNAS paper with Kerrie Mengersen and Pierre Pudlo on empirical likelihood ABC, or BCel. The alternative is based on Davison, Hinkley and Worton’s (1992) […]
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9:17 PM | Un sorriso
Soddisfazioni: quando torni a casa con il sorriso di un ragazzo che, nonostante la tarda sera, sorride per essere riuscito a trovare mcm ed MCD. Tutto il resto e' un contorno di cui forse potremmo anche fare a meno.
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8:58 PM | Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto
Statistical communication includes graphing data and fitted models, programming, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students, and combining words and pictures in different ways. The common theme of all these interactions is that we need to consider our statistical tools in the context of our goals. Communication is not just about conveying […] The post Statistical Communication and Graphics Manifesto appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
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8:55 PM | My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics
We will study and practice many different aspects of statistical communication, including graphing data and fitted models, programming in Rrrrrrrr, writing for specialized and general audiences, lecturing, working with students and colleagues, and combining words and pictures in different ways. You learn by doing: each week we have two classes that are full of student […] The post My course on Statistical Communication and Graphics appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal […]
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8:30 PM | Linkage
Why academic writing stinks or, keep it simple (G+)Sad news of the death of Ferran Hurtado (G+)A visual compendium of glowing creatures, scientific illustration by Eleanor Lutz (G+)Women in computer science get tenure at significantly lower rates than men even after normalizing for research productivity (G+)Tietze's graph, Wikipedia article expanded with a new illustration of why it has the name it has: it was an earlier counterexample in the theory of coloring graphs on non-orientable surfaces […]
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6:55 PM | Petition absorbs way more signatures than this product with a stupid advert ever could
An Australian sanitary pad company has hit upon a witty tagline for their product:   Literally thousands of people have signed a petition to tell Libra that that’s not OK. An advert for something which both men and women buy, like car sponges, with the tagline “absorbs way more than you ever did in maths... Read more »
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6:53 PM | ‘The Imitation Game’ Cryptography Competition
To celebrate the release of the upcoming Alan Turing biopic ‘The Imitation Game’ (see: our incisive analysis of the film’s trailer by James Grime) the guys at the University of Manchester – who have previously run the hugely successful Alan Turing Cryptography competition – have been asked to run a one-off Imitation Game Cryptography Competition. And... Read more »
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3:51 PM | The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say
In our recent discussion of publication bias, a commenter link to a recent paper, “Star Wars: The Empirics Strike Back,” by Abel Brodeur, Mathias Le, Marc Sangnier, Yanos Zylberberg, who point to the notorious overrepresentation in scientific publications of p-values that are just below 0.05 (that is, just barely statistically significant at the conventional level) […] The post The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say appeared first on Statistical […]
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1:56 PM | Visiting Fellowships at the MCMP (Academic Year 2015/2016)
The Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy invites applications for visiting fellowships for one to three months in the academic year 2015/16 (15 October 2015 to 15 February 2016 or 15 April to 15 July 2016) intended for advanced Ph.D. students (“Junior Fellowships") and postdocs or faculty (“Senior Fellowships"). Candidates should work in general philosophy of science, the philosophy of one of the special sciences, formal epistemology, or social […]
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1:54 PM | 3-year Doctoral Fellowship on “The Evolution of Unpopular Norms and Bullying"
The Munich Center for Mathematical Philosophy seeks applications for a Doctoral Fellowship. The successful candidate will work on the project "The Evolution of Unpopular Norms and Bullying” (project summary below), which is funded by the German Research Council (DFG) and part of the DFG Priority Programme “New Frameworks of Rationality”. The fellowship is open for candidates with a masters degree in philosophy or a related social science. The funding is for three years, and […]
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12:18 PM | 6th French Econometrics Conference in Dauphine
On December 4-5, Université Paris-Dauphine will host the 6th French Econometric Conference, which celebrates Christian Gouriéroux and his contributions to econometrics. (Christian was my statistics professor during my graduate years at ENSAE and then Head of CREST when I joined this research unit, first as a PhD student and later as Head of the statistics […]

October 14, 2014

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11:53 PM | I didn’t say that! Part 2
Uh oh, this is getting kinda embarrassing. The Garden of Forking Paths paper, by Eric Loken and myself, just appeared in American Scientist. Here’s our manuscript version (“The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no ‘fishing expedition’ or ‘p-hacking’ and the research hypothesis was posited ahead […] The post I didn’t say that! Part 2 appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and […]
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11:17 PM | 2-site Voronoi triangle centers
The idea of a 2-site Voronoi diagram was pioneered by Barequet, Dickerson, and Drysdale in a WADS 1999 paper later published in Discrete Applied Math. 2002. The basic idea is that you have a function d(p,q;x) that tells you the distance from an unordered pair of sites {p,q} to another point x in the plane; given a collection of sites, you want to divide the plane up into regions so that the region containing a point x tells you which pair of sites is closest to x (or in some […]
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10:14 PM | my ISBA tee-shirt designs
Here are my tee-shirt design proposals for the official ISBA tee-shirt competition! (I used the facilities of CustomInk.com as I could not easily find a free software around. Except for the last one where I recycled my vistaprint mug design…) While I do not have any expectation of seeing one of these the winner (!), […]
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7:29 PM | What do you mean by can’t?
You can’t subtract 4 from 3 (and stay inside the natural numbers, but you can inside the integers). You can’t divide 3 by 4 (inside the ring of integers, but you can inside the rational numbers). You can’t take the square root of a negative number (in the real numbers, but in the complex numbers […]
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7:12 PM | Diversity and mathematics
Mother Jones, last year: According to a new psychology paper, our political passions can even undermine our very basic reasoning skills. More specifically, the study finds that people who are otherwise very good at math may totally flunk a problem … Continue reading →
Editor's Pick
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7:00 PM | Beyond Emmy and Sophie: Resources for Learning about Women in Math
Today is Ada Lovelace Day, an international celebration of women in science, technology, engineering, and math. If you’d like to read about women in math for the occasion, you’re in serious... -- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com
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4:57 PM | The Queen of Science – The woman who tamed Laplace.
In a footnote to my recent post on the mythologizing of Ibn al-Haytham I briefly noted the inadequacy of the terms Arabic science and Islamic science, pointing out that there were scholars included in these categories who were not Muslims … Continue reading →
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3:13 PM | In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons
Exhibit A: [2012] Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons. Journal of Research on Educational Effectiveness 5, 189-211. (Andrew Gelman, Jennifer Hill, and Masanao Yajima) Exhibit B: The garden of forking paths: Why multiple comparisons can be a problem, even when there is no “fishing expedition” or “p-hacking” and the research hypothesis […] The post In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) […]
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3:00 PM | State population and area
Ork Posters makes maps of cities with their neighborhoods. I have three: Boston, Philadelphia, San Francisco. I was looking at them recently and noticed one thing these three cities have in common: the more centrally located neighborhoods are physically smaller than the outlying neighborhoods. Is this a general trend? It’s hard to tell because neighborhoods […]
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1:00 PM | On deck this week
Tues: In one of life’s horrible ironies, I wrote a paper “Why we (usually) don’t have to worry about multiple comparisons” but now I spend lots of time worrying about multiple comparisons Wed: The Fault in Our Stars: It’s even worse than they say Thurs: Buggy-whip update Fri: The inclination to deny all variation Sat: […] The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.
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10:47 AM | Upcoming data journalism and data ethics conferences
Today Today I’m super excited to go to the opening launch party of danah boyd’s Data and Society. Data and Society has a bunch of cool initiatives but I’m particularly interested in their Council for Big Data, Ethics, and Society. They were the people that helped make the Podesta Report on Big Data as good […]
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7:26 AM | Call for Papers: Formal Epistemology Workshop 2015
May 20-22, 2015 (Wednesday to Friday)Washington University in St. LouisKeynote speakers:Tom Kelly (Princeton), Jeff Horty (University of Maryland, College Park)The Formal Epistemology Workshop will be held in connection with the 2015 meeting of the St. Louis Annual Conference on Reasons and Rationality (SLACRR), which will take place immediately before, from May 17-19, 2015.There will be conference sessions all day on May 20 & 21, and in the morning on May 22.Contributors are invited to […]

October 13, 2014

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10:14 PM | Le Monde puzzle [#882]
A terrific Le Monde mathematical puzzle: All integers between 1 and n² are written in an (n,n)  matrix under the constraint that two consecutive integers are adjacent (i.e. 15 and 13 are two of the four neighbours of 14). What is the maximal value for the sum of the diagonal of this matrix? Indeed, when considering […]
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3:00 PM | Election forecasting and big data
Matt Yglesias writes on what he calls the hazy metaphysics of probability as it applies to election forecasting. For example, as of right now, Nate Silver’s forecasts have a 42.2% chance of the Democrats (plus independents) getting the majority in the Senate, while Sam Wang’s forecasts have that same number at 39%. As Yglesias points […]
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