# Posts

### September 02, 2014

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7:08 PM | I cuculi di Midwich

Consigliato come lettura estiva da Fantascientificast, I figli dell'invasione di John Wyndham è un classico della fantascienza, trasportato al cinema in una versione di culto, Il villaggio dei dannati del 1960 girato da Wolf Rilla, e successivamente riportato al cinema nel 1995 in una delle ultime interpretazioni cinematografiche di Christopher Reeve, il Superman cinematografico, diretto per l'occasione da John Carpenter.La storia è tremendamente semplice e originale: in un
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3:43 PM | Maths in the city

Outreach is an incredibly important part of a researcher's job. Many mathematicians are funded through research councils that rely on tax payer money, so we really should be able to justify the work that we do. One project set up to do just that is Maths in the City. WCMB members, Dr Thomas Woolley and Paul Taylor, were recently filmed demonstrating the tour. Here, Paul recounts the experience.The close proximity of London is one of the perks of living in Oxford. Residents trek to the capital
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1:23 PM | Questions about “Too Good to Be True”

Greg Won writes: I manage a team tasked with, among other things, analyzing data on Air Traffic operations to identify factors that may be associated with elevated risk. I think its fair to characterize our work as “data mining” (e.g., using rule induction, Bayesian, and statistical methods). One of my colleagues sent me a link […]
The post Questions about “Too Good to Be True” appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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12:18 PM | ISBA@NIPS

[An announcement from ISBA about sponsoring young researchers at NIPS that links with my earlier post that our ABC in Montréal proposal for a workshop had been accepted and a more global feeling that we (as a society) should do more to reach towards machine-learning.] The International Society for Bayesian Analysis (ISBA) is pleased to […]

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10:37 AM | Data science expiration date

About three years ago JD Long said I like the term “Data Scientist” for now. I expect that term will be meaningless in 5 years. Sounds about right.

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In 1936, two years after Karl Popper published the first German version of The Logic of Scientific Discovery and introduced falsifiability; Alonzo Church, Alan Turing, and Emil Post each published independent papers on the Entscheidungsproblem and introducing the lambda calculus, Turing machines, and Post-Turing machines as mathematical models of computation. The years after saw many […]

Gandy, R. (1980). Church's thesis and principles for mechanisms., Studies in Logic and the Foundations of Mathematics, (101) 123-148. DOI: 10.1016/S0049-237X(08)71257-6

Citation

### September 01, 2014

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10:14 PM | big data, big models, it is a big deal!

Filed under: pictures, Statistics, University life Tagged: big data, conference, England, Statistics, University of Warwick, workshop

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8:15 PM | Racconti matematici

Secondo Robert Musil, nel simpatico racconto/saggio che chiude la raccolta curata da Claudio Bartocci, sono ben poche le attività umane dove la matematica non riveste alcun ruolo: Tutto ciò che esiste intorno a noi, che si muove, corre o se ne sta immobile, non soltanto sarebbe incomprensibile senza la matematica ma è effettivamente nato dalla matematica, e ne è sostenuto nella realtà concreta della propria esistenza.Anche la letteratura è fatta di
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3:24 PM | Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out?

Evelyn Lamb adds to the conversation that Jeff Leek and I had a few months ago. It’s a topic that’s worth returning to, in light of our continuing discussions regarding the crisis of criticism in science.
The post Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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3:00 PM | On deck this week

Mon: Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Tues: Questions about “Too Good to Be True” Wed: I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Thurs: Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Fri: Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science Sat: How does inference for next year’s data […]
The post On deck this week appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social
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12:18 PM | a day of travel

I had quite a special day today as I travelled through Birmingham, made a twenty minutes stop in Coventry to drop my bag in my office, went down to London to collect a most kindly loaned city-bike and took the train back to Coventry with the said bike… On my way from Bristol to Warwick, […]

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5:59 AM | Linkage

More Google+ links from the last couple of weeks:An interview with Haida artist Jim Hart (G+):Persi Diaconis discusses mathematics and magic (G+)A still-unsolved question about whether it's possible to compute edit distance in sublinear space and polynomial time (G+)A New York Times story about how scheduling software makes part-time workers' lives harder. Or does it? The MF discussion of the article makes it clear that managers have been doing the same things with lower tech for a long time.
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### August 31, 2014

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The title of this recent arXival had potential appeal, however the proposal ends up being rather straightforward and hence anti-climactic! The paper by Hu, Hendry and Heng proposes to run a mixture of proposals centred at the various modes of the target for an efficient exploration. This is a correct MCMC algorithm, granted!, but the […]

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8:23 PM | L'uomo che non sapeva dove morire

Due gli aspetti stuzzicanti che mi hanno spinto a leggere L'uomo che non sapeva dove morire dell'argentino Guillermo Saccomanno: l'ambientazione apocalittica descritta nel risvolto della prima di copertina ("In una città devastata dagli attacchi della guerriglia e dalle piogge acide, percorsa da bambini zombi e cani clonati") e il capitolo 38, una paginetta su cui mi si sono posati gli occhi casualmente: A volte, di nascosto, si porta una rivista in bagno. Seduto sulla tazza, legge un
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4:20 PM | Aidan Dwyer and a new fotovoltaic design

Aidan Dwyer, was one of twelve students to receive the 2011 Young Naturalist Award from the American Museum of Natural History in New York for creating an innovative approach to collecting sunlight in photovoltaic arrays. Dwyer’s investigation into the mathematical relationship of the arrangement of branches and leaves in deciduous trees led to his discovery that these species utilized the Fibonacci Sequence in their branch and leaf design. Dwyer transformed this organic concept into a
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1:00 PM | Look Ma, No Zero!

As I told my class on Thursday, the theme of the first week of our math history course was “easy algebra is hard in base 60.” We started the semester in ancient Mesopotamia, trying to understand...
-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

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12:18 PM | Avernian posts

Filed under: Mountains, pictures, Running, Travel Tagged: agriculture, Auvergne, Besse-en-Chandesse, fields, France, hay, hiking, landscape, Murol, POST, summer

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4:43 AM | Uncountably Categorical Theories

Boris Zilber's thoughts on 'logically perfect' structures.

### August 30, 2014

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Last and maybe most exciting day of the “High-dimensional Stochastic Simulation and Optimisation in Image Processing” in Bristol as it was exclusively about simulation (MCMC) methods. Except my own talk on ABC. And Peter Green’s on consistency of Bayesian inference in non-regular models. The talks today were indeed about using convex optimisation devices to speed up […]

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9:02 PM | What Is A Computer, Really?

What Is A Computer, Really?
Look at the picture above. Believe it or not, that person is operating an extremely sophisticated mechanical calculator, capable of generating tables that evaluate functions called “polynomials.” Although a graphing calculator can do that, a pocket calculator certainly can’t. The … Continue reading →
The post What Is A Computer, Really? appeared first on The Physics Mill.

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8:01 PM | Il sole artificiale e altre storie

Il sole artificialeCome ricorda Michio Kaku in Mondi paralleli, per Carl Sagan l'ultimo grande salto tecnologico lo faremo quando riusciremo realmente a controllare l'energia a un livello galattico. Più o meno era quello che pensava anche Tesla e, probabilmente, lo stesso pensiero c'era anche in Tezuka mentre scriveva e disegnava Il sole artificiale. Tra l'altro questo particolare robot senza mente realizzato da Ochanomizu e Hirata per produrre energia, è incredibilmente simile
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3:00 PM | On deck this month

Bad Statistics: Ignore or Call Out? Questions about “Too Good to Be True” I disagree with Alan Turing and Daniel Kahneman regarding the strength of statistical evidence Why isn’t replication required before publication in top journals? Confirmationist and falsificationist paradigms of science How does inference for next year’s data differ from inference for unobserved data […]
The post On deck this month appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference,
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2:11 PM | Aunt Pythia’s advice: the nerdy edition

Aunt Pythia is ginormously and ridonkulously excited to be here. She just got back from a nifty bike ride to the other side of the Hudson and took this picture of this amazing city on this amazing day: OK, so full disclosure. Aunt Pythia kind of blew her load, so to speak, on the sex questions […]

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12:18 PM | avernian landscapes (#6)

Filed under: Mountains, pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel Tagged: Auvergne, Besse-en-Chandesse, Bleu d'Auvergne, Cantal, cow, Fourme d'Amber, France, Laguiole, Mont-Dore, Puy-de-Dôme, Saint-Nectaire, Salers, sunrise, vacations, volcanoes

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3:45 AM | A Theorist’s Apology

Almost four months have snuck by in silence, a drastic change from the weekly updates earlier in the year. However, dear reader, I have not abandoned TheEGG; I have just fallen off the metaphorical horse and it has taken some time to get back on my feet. While I was in the mud, I thought […]

### August 29, 2014

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After a nice morning run down Leigh Woods and on the muddy banks of the Avon river, I attended a morning session on hyperspectral image non-linear modelling. Topic about which I knew nothing beforehand. Hyperspectral images are 3-D images made of several wavelengths to improve their classification as a mixture of several elements. The non-linearity […]

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da Picture Show, febbraio 1951

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I am the Past-President of the Forum for Women in OR/MS (WORMS). My last initiative as President was to get the ball rolling on a travel fund for students and junior faculty traveling to the INFORMS Annual Meeting with babies and young children (Fact: I did this once!). The travel fund would help pay for childcare costs at the […]

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One of my favorites, from 1995. Don Rubin and I argue with Adrian Raftery. Here’s how we begin: Raftery’s paper addresses two important problems in the statistical analysis of social science data: (1) choosing an appropriate model when so much data are available that standard P-values reject all parsimonious models; and (2) making estimates and […]
The post Avoiding model selection in Bayesian social research appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and
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12:18 PM | avernian landscapes (#5)

Filed under: Mountains, pictures, Running, Statistics, Travel Tagged: Auvergne, France, Mont-Dore, Puy de Sancy, Puy-de-Dôme, vacations, volcanoes