# Posts

### April 01, 2015

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Ricevo comunicazione via e-mail e pubblico volentieri, visto il parziale interesse sulla faccenda: Apertura di quattro sportelli di consulenza sindacale rivolti a lavoratori e lavoratrici precari/e delle università milanesiLa Federazione Lavoratori della Conoscenza di Milano attiva quattro sportelli di consulenza sindacale rivolti a tutto il personale con contratti di lavoro precario: dottorandi, borsisti, docenti a contratto, assegnisti, cultori della materia, ricercatori a tempo
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3:56 AM | Linkage

Non-uniformly-random playlists sound more random than random ones (G+)Is it a good thing that science is monolingual? Is it even true? (G+)Bringing Wikipedia to a school without electricity (G+)Erik Demaine presents the MAA Centennial Lecture (G+)What if we held elimination tournaments based on the strength of math departments? (G+)Mathematical equations as architectonic forms (G+)Persi Diaconis on good and bad ways to shuffle cards (G+)Open problems in topological graph theory from the late
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Recently, Jake Taylor-King arrived in Tampa and last week we were brainstorming some projects to work on together. In the process, I dug up an old idea I’ve been playing with as my understanding of the Ohtsuki-Nowak transform matured. The basic goal is to work towards an operational account of spatial structure without having to […]

Ohtsuki, H. & Nowak, M. (2006). The replicator equation on graphs., Journal of Theoretical Biology, 243 (1) 86-97. DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2006.06.004

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### March 31, 2015

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10:15 PM | Le Monde puzzle [#905]

A recursive programming Le Monde mathematical puzzle: Given n tokens with 10≤n≤25, Alice and Bob play the following game: the first player draws an integer1≤m≤6 at random. This player can then take 1≤r≤min(2m,n) tokens. The next player is then free to take 1≤s≤min(2r,n-r) tokens. The player taking the last tokens is the winner. There is […]

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For yesterday‘s contest I really really really wanted to pick John Waters. For one thing, of all the 64 people in the bracket, he’s the one I think I’d like to hear the most. For another, he’s still alive and just might conceivably be amused enough by this whole contest to come up from Baltimore […]
The post The round of 8 begins: Mark Twain (4) vs. Miguel de Cervantes (2); Carlin advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social
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1:55 PM | L'arcobaleno di Cartesio

"Sai dirmi qualcosa sul piano di Cartesio?"..."E' morto, quindi credo che non abbia funzionato"via @orporick, via @_juhanIl 31 marzo del 1596 nasceva René Descartes, italianizzato in Renato Cartesio. Non è stato solo un filosofo o l'ideatore dell'omonimo piano, ma anche quello che oggi considereremmo un fisico-matematico. L'esempio più importante che si può portare a supporto è il modello che Cartesio sviluppò per descrivere la formazione
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1:16 PM | Time-release pedagogy??

Mark Palko points to this report and writes: Putting aside my concerns with the “additional years of learning” metric (and I have a lot of them), I have the feeling that there’s something strange here or i’m missing something obvious. That jump from 3-year impact to 4-year seems excessive. The press release links to a […]
The post Time-release pedagogy?? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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12:18 PM | by the Hudson river

Filed under: pictures, Running, Travel, University life Tagged: Columbia University, Hudson river, New York city

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12:00 PM | Bayes factors vs p-values

Bayesian analysis and Frequentist analysis often lead to the same conclusions by different routes. But sometimes the two forms of analysis lead to starkly different conclusions. The following illustration of this difference comes from a talk by Luis Pericci last week. He attributes the example to “Bernardo (2010)” though I have not been able to find the exact […]

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12:00 PM | The Cantor Function: Angel or Devil?

When you’re looking at it, it just stays there, constant and still. But if you turn your back for just an instant at a point in the Cantor set, the function grows impossibly quickly. It’s not...
-- Read more on ScientificAmerican.com

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10:21 AM | Review: The New Prophets of Capital

Last night I finished reading Nicole Aschoff’s new book, The New Prophets of Capital, which was published as part of the Jacobin series of books. Here’s a description from their website of their book series: The Jacobin series features short interrogations of politics, economics, and culture from a socialist perspective, as an avenue to radical political practice. […]

### March 30, 2015

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10:15 PM | MCMskv, Lenzerheide, Jan. 5-7, 2016

Following the highly successful [authorised opinion!, from objective sources] MCMski IV, in Chamonix last year, the BayesComp section of ISBA has decided in favour of a two-year period, which means the great item of news that next year we will meet again for MCMski V [or MCMskv for short], this time on the snowy slopes […]

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We have seen in previous notes that the operation of forming a Dirichlet series or twisted Dirichlet series is an incredibly useful tool for questions in multiplicative number theory. Such series can be viewed as a multiplicative Fourier transform, since the functions and are multiplicative characters. Similarly, it turns out that the operation of forming […]

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The bard of the suburbs wins yesterday‘s bout with another fine turn of phrase, this time brought to us in comments by Ethan: “Drinking a toast to the visible world, his impending disappearance from it be damned.” Updike, from “My Father’s Tears.” I want to hear from someone who can write like that about things […]
The post George Carlin (2) vs. John Waters (1); Updike advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social
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1:24 PM | How is ethics like logistic regression?

Ethics decisions, like statistical inferences, are informative only if they’re not too easy or too hard. For the full story, read the whole thing.
The post How is ethics like logistic regression? appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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12:51 PM | Pros and cons of the term “data science”

I’ve resisted using the term “data science,” and enjoy poking fun at it now and then, but I’ve decided it’s not such a bad label after all. Here are some of the pros and cons of the term. (Listing “cons” first seems backward, but I’m currently leaning toward the pro side, so I thought I […]

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12:18 PM | also sprach Nietzsche

Filed under: Books, Kids, pictures Tagged: Andrew Gelman, atheism, Friedrich Nietzsche, graphical novel, Maximilien Le Roy, Michel Onfray, Philosophenweg

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11:04 AM | I accept mathematical bribes

Last Friday I traveled to American University and gave an evening talk, where I met Jeffrey Hakim, a mathematician and designer who openly bribed me. Don’t worry, it’s not that insidious. He just showed me his nerdy math wallet and said I could have one too if I blogged about it. I obviously said yes. […]

### March 29, 2015

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10:15 PM | intuition beyond a Beta property

A self-study question on X validated exposed an interesting property of the Beta distribution: If x is B(n,m) and y is B(n+½,m) then √xy is B(2n,2m) While this can presumably be established by a mere change of variables, I could not carry the derivation till the end and used instead the moment generating function E[(XY)s/2] […]

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An approximation from Justin Wolfers: “Quarterly growth ˜ 0.33 * this month’s growth + 0.67 * (t-1) + 1.0 * (t-2) + 0.67 * (t-3) + 0.33*(t-4)”. I stared at this one for a while. But it’s actually pretty easy … Continue reading →

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7:48 PM | This Week

Well, first time writing this kind of (personal) post, but I thought it will be a good way to let you all know why I haven’t been writing much lately and I won’t do much in the next period eighter. First, at university everything was doubled regarding homework or class work in general. I will […]

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I chose yesterday‘s winner based on the oddest comment we’ve received so far in the competition, from AC: I’d love to see what Jane Austen (Austen’s early Regency dress style: http://sensibility.com/vintageimages/1800s/images/lacedress.jpg) thought of late Regency dresses (http://www.kittyprint.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/EveningDresses.jpg), which were basically the exact opposite sensibility. It’s an astonishingly quick reversal, from narrow and prim to a
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Vim + Tmux + Slime Workflow Editing code in anything other than Vim seems to drain my coding stamina rapidly, but when working with a language such as R that has an interactive REPL (read evaluate print loop) it is often useful to send lines of code thereto for purposes of debugging. I have used […]
The post Send Lines of Code from Vim to R/Julia/Python REPL appeared first on Lindons Log.

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Regression: What’s it all about? Regression plays three different roles in applied statistics: 1. A specification of the conditional expectation of y given x; 2. A generative model of the world; 3. A method for adjusting data to generalize from sample to population, or to perform causal inferences. We could also include prediction, but I […]
The post Regression: What’s it all about? [Bayesian and otherwise] appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social
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### March 28, 2015

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11:15 PM | off to New York

I am off to New York City for two days, giving a seminar at Columbia tomorrow and visiting Andrew Gelman there. My talk will be about testing as mixture estimation, with slides similar to the Nice ones below if slightly upgraded and augmented during the flight to JFK. Looking at the past seminar speakers, I […]

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Are we just a service department? I don’t believe Princeton’s Mathematics department thinks so, neither does any Chemistry department on this continent. Yet, a Vice-President of the Canadian Mathematical Society wants us “to come to the realization that in almost … Continue reading →

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4:43 PM | Tormenta nera

E' notizia recente che Yoshihiro Tatsumi è morto. Come ricordato anche su LSB, Tatsumi è il fondatore del gekiga, il manga serio e adulto rispetto a quello sbarazzino più famoso e diffuso, in sostanza l'equivalente del romanzo a fumetti occidentale.Come visto all'inizio della serie dedicata ad Astro Boy, Osamu Tezuka è considerato come il "Dio del manga" e tra i suoi allievi è presente anche Tatsumi, che però deciderà di portare la lezione del
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Yesterday‘s deciding arguments came from Horselover himself. As quoted by Dalton: Any given man sees only a tiny portion of the total truth, and very often, in fact almost . . . perpetually, he deliberately deceives himself about that precious little fragment as well. And: We ourselves are information-rich; information enters us, is processed and […]
The post Stewart Lee vs. Jane Austen; Dick advances appeared first on Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science.

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A recurrent theme here in TheEGG is the limits and reliability of knowledge. These get explored from many directions: on epistemological grounds, from the philosophy of science angle, but also formally, through game theory and simulations. In this post, I will explore the topic of misbeliefs as adaptations. Misbeliefs will be intended as ideas about […]

Kaznatcheev, A., Montrey, M. & Shultz, T.R. (2014). Evolving useful delusions: Subjectively rational selfishness leads to objectively irrational cooperation., Proceedings of the 36th annual conference of the Cognitive Science Society, arXiv: http://arxiv.org/abs/1405.0041v1

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1:11 PM | The publication of one of my pet ideas: Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals

In a paper to appear in Statistics and Computing, Ying Liu, Tian Zheng, and I write: Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) intervals can be estimated directly from simulations via empirical shortest intervals. Unfortunately, these can be noisy (that is, have a high Monte Carlo error). We derive an optimal weighting strategy using bootstrap and quadratic […]
The post The publication of one of my pet ideas: Simulation-efficient shortest probability intervals appeared first on
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