You will meet too much false precision

Precise numbers and claims - as though there is no margin for error - are all around us. When someone tells you that 54.3% of people with some disease will have a particular outcome, they're basically predicting the future of all groups of people based on what happened to another group of people in the past. Well, what are the chances of that, eh? If our fortune teller was quoting the result of a study here, it could be written like this:  67.5% (95% CI: 62%-73%). The CI stands for […]